General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWhat Do Democrats Have to Do to Get a Majority in the House?
Here's what: We need to flip just 24-25 Republican seats and retain all Democratic seats. Or the equivalent, worked out whatever way works.
24-25 flipped seats. We can do that. We can.
Think of it this way: If we flip one Republican congressional district in just half of the 50 states, we reach that goal. Half of the states.
But, what if we flipped one seat in all 50 states? That would give us a terrific margin. One seat. Just one. I know of two that should be flippable in my state of Minnesota. How about your state? Is there one? Which district? What are you willing to do to flip that seat?
Are you ready to help flip a seat in your state? I sure hope so.
Heartstrings
(7,349 posts)Well said, MineralMan! And I'm ready!
brooklynite
(94,745 posts)"all 50 States" is a great bumper sticker, but it's meaningless strategy. We focus attention and money where the races are actually winnable. The 15 tossup races are in only 12 States. The "Lean R" seats are in only 15 (many of the same).
MineralMan
(146,333 posts)I'm talking about a different approach that involves massive GOTV efforts and looks outside of the traditional box. Please go right ahead with your "winnable seats" approach. I'm going with the Virginia approach. Either way, we work hard and we win.
brooklynite
(94,745 posts)In my case, my resources are finite, so I'll target them where they'll do the most good.
MineralMan
(146,333 posts)GOTV is purely local in nature. It always has been. It's up to each of us to contribute our time to such efforts. Money doesn't work. Time and personal contact works.
Bradshaw3
(7,529 posts)For sure everyone contribute what they can but almost everyone is able to take part in a local GOTV effort. I will be, in a red part of a purple state regardless of the likely outcome. As Virginia showed, you never know what will happen when you actually run candidates across the board, even in red districts.
Nationally, it does make sense for the party to target certain races when it comes to spending. But looking at the outcomes so far, there may be a lot more "winnable" districts than even the Democratic party is willing to acknowledge. Just one more reason to get out there and work, making that person-to-person contact. After all, it looks like control of the VA legislature will come down to one more vote for a Democrat.
MineralMan
(146,333 posts)However, the DCCC truly does not necessarily understand the local races very well. Local Democratic workers do. I see the largest task to be getting reluctant or apathetic voters to show up at the polls. If we can do that with dramatic results, there are lots of flippable seats. That's something the DCCC can't help with.
crazycatlady
(4,492 posts)DIsclaimer-- I've trained with them.
IN order to get their support, candidates need to meet certain benchmarks. Mainly they have to prove to be viable (by polling and fundraising). They typically stay out of primaries unless one candidate is incredibly toxic (a Roy Moore).
THey provide a lot of behind the scenes support including funding to state parties that in turn pay for staff.
Heartstrings
(7,349 posts)to defeat lyin' Ryan.......
brooklynite
(94,745 posts)The emotional thrill of "getting Paul Ryan" is offset by the reality that this is a gerrymandered "Safe R" district. Plenty of other seat are more ripe for pick-up.
Also, Bryce has a Democratic Primary opponent.
LakeArenal
(28,847 posts)You keep up that strategy of trying nothing new and being all out of any new ideas.
brooklynite
(94,745 posts)...which candidate should I NOT give money to if it goes to your guy?
LakeArenal
(28,847 posts)That you wont support many of the contests Im interested in because they are impossible to win for gerrymandering or solid red or whatever your reasons.
Ive just made the observation that you do so. Give to whomever. Democrat is the only rule, right?
Some of us like the fight in the red gerrymandered impossible races because we live and vote there. We ask for help doing that. You dont want to support that, its your right.
It seems you want to dissuade others from helping those hard races.
Heartstrings
(7,349 posts)Doesn't stop me, or us......
On Wisconsin! We can flip back!
LakeArenal
(28,847 posts)Randy Bryce..
Heartstrings
(7,349 posts)Heartstrings
(7,349 posts)brooklynite
(94,745 posts)(Kansas has two races more likely to flip than you do)
LakeArenal
(28,847 posts)This is what it's about for you right? The donation.
Look, if people where I live recognize the names of people who need some name recognition in your state isn't that something. If you can get conversations going, tell people the names of whom you do support. Isn't that something.?
If in conversation, we say, I hear that guy in Kansas, Joe Doe, is someone to keep an eye on.. Isn't that something?
When you see a thread you are interested in, you could quote Joe Doe's stance on a subject. Instead of I won't support that guy or that guy... stand then for whomever you do support.
Try, "I can't support Randy Bryce financially because of Joe Doe's race in Kansas against the repuke Simon LeGree. But I think Randy Bryce Is a name I will remember."
brooklynite
(94,745 posts)AZ-02
CA-10
CA-25
CA-39
CA-45
CA-48
CA-49
CO-06
FL-26
FL-27
GA-06
IA-03
IA-01
IL-06
IL-12
KS-02
KS-03
ME-02
MI-08
MI-11
MN-02
MN-03
NE-02
NJ-02
NJ-07
NJ-11
NY-19
NY-22
PA-06
PA-07
PA-08
PA-15
TX-07
TX-23
TX-32
VA-10
WA-08
Competitive Senate Races
AZ-Kyrsten Sinema
NV-Jackey Rosen
TN-Phil Breseden
Competitive Governor Races
New Mexico
Florida
Illinois
Maine
Michigan
Nevada
New Hampshire
Ohio
Wisconsin
The reason I don't list names for the House or Gov races is that there is an extensive list of Democrats running in Primaries (Just like in WI-1). I'll leave it to local Democrats to make a choice before I get involved.
(this list doesn't include the 17 States with Attorney General races, 18 States with Secretary of State races and 21 States with State Controller races, all of which I'm researching)
Jim Lane
(11,175 posts)According to its Wikipedia article, it has a PVI of R+5. That's a definite Republican edge but not an insuperable one.
Another factor is that there are rumors Ryan may retire. An open seat is often a good opportunity. A district of R+5 with an open seat may well be an easier flip than a district of R+1 with a well-known (and well-entrenched) Republican incumbent.
ETA: The PVI numbers are from the Cook Partisan Voting Index. It's a rough but useful indication of the political lean of a Congressional district. There's more information about it at its Wikipedia article.
brooklynite
(94,745 posts)NewJeffCT
(56,829 posts)we'd never have gotten Senator Doug Jones from Alabama.
brooklynite
(94,745 posts)AL-SEN was actually rated as "Lean-R" or "Tossup" once Roy Moore got the nominee.
another fun fact: we're ahead in TN-SEN: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10141944169 Definitely a good investment
crazycatlady
(4,492 posts)Of course I live in the last holdout.
This bill is bad news for NJ. They should go for the kill.
MineralMan
(146,333 posts)held by Republicans. Two are very possible. The other one is a maybe. We're going to give it our best efforts.
crazycatlady
(4,492 posts)One of them already announced his retirement (on Election Day).
Chris Smith (the only NJ GOP congressman not being targeted) is getting very defensive. I've called his office multiple times and instead of putting a mark in the tally column, his staffer was very defensive when I told her the repeal of net neutrality would effect my bottom line (I run an Etsy store and want people to flock there instead of Amazon).
He was first elected the year I was born. People born when he was elected are now eligible for POTUS. It's time to get him out. 37 years is a long enough term in Congress.
bpj62
(999 posts)We are working hard to defeat Barbara Comstock. The district is horribly gerrymandered but the recent victories by Democrats in the VA races will help. Comstock has been given cover by the House Leadership to vote against certain bills. We have a great lineup of candidates so hopefully we go blue in November. GOTV.
MineralMan
(146,333 posts)That's true almost everywhere a flip is possible. GOTV will make the difference, and that's someone each of us can help with in our own or neighboring districts.
riverwalker
(8,694 posts)With the right candidate. I wish Patty Wetterling would run for that seat again. She lost to Bachmann. This time she could win.
MineralMan
(146,333 posts)Emmer might be defeatable, but it will be a difficult race. Wetterling could win, though. She has strong emotional support, and might pull some Republicans over. GOTV will be hugely important in that district, as in the two I list below:
CD 2 is pretty likely, since Jason Lewis is a Trump clone. I think that one can be flipped with a good effort.
CD 3 is another one we should be able to flip, I think. I see Paulsen as a weak candidate in 2018.
riverwalker
(8,694 posts)He only has 42 followers on Twitter.
https://www.iantoddforcongress.com
world wide wally
(21,755 posts)25 nationwide should not be a problem. I look for more like 100 - 150
BUT ... We need to VOTE!
NewJeffCT
(56,829 posts)US House of Representatives is another story.
world wide wally
(21,755 posts)crazycatlady
(4,492 posts)Bradshaw3
(7,529 posts)Thanks for posting.
Willie Pep
(841 posts)People just have to put the work in and have a strong GOTV effort. I never understood the strategy of just abandoning parts of the country as "unwinnable." Even if you lose at least you build an organization and get your "brand" out there.
NewJeffCT
(56,829 posts)With the unpopularity of Trump, we should have somebody running for every Congressional seat
scheming daemons
(25,487 posts)MineralMan
(146,333 posts)Go for it!
mcar
(42,376 posts)I've helped to start a Democratic Women's Club chapter in my red county and currently serve as an officer. I'm scheduling all 4 Democrats who are running to replace our useless congress critter to speak to our group over the next several months. And, we're working with the local Democratic Black Caucus and Democratic Progressive Caucus, as well as the local party, to hold joint events to GOTV.
The big push in FL is vote-by-mail. Many people don't realize anyone can sign up for it.
There are other districts in FL that are more flippable. The state Democratic Women's Club is fired up and the state party finally seems to be paying attention. I think FL can flip at least one seat.
MineralMan
(146,333 posts)It is so nice to talk to like-minded people in my county. I'd been feeling very isolated.
PoindexterOglethorpe
(25,902 posts)And the State Senates.
That's where redistricting occurs. Go truly grass roots.
Also, keep in mind that seven states have only one House seat. Another five have only two seats. And another three have only three seats. The Republican seats in those states will be incredibly difficult to flip. Bigger states with more districts present more opportunities. Especially if we elect more Democratic state legislatures to fix some of the worst of the gerrymandering.
pangaia
(24,324 posts)school boards, mayors, town councils, water boards, etc etc etc
THAT, in my view, is how we got to where we are now.. repubs started pushing this in early 1980's, maybe earlier...
treestar
(82,383 posts)that's one of the places the right wing started and why there is so many evolution-denying nutcases on them.
LakeArenal
(28,847 posts)So important. Well said!
pangaia
(24,324 posts)Collins is a first class schmuck..
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)dalton99a
(81,599 posts)Gothmog
(145,619 posts)MineralMan
(146,333 posts)muntrv
(14,505 posts)Justice
(7,188 posts)Target 14 California House Republicans in 2018; 7 are very vulnerable
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100210003687
Target 6 New York Congressional Seats
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100210003801
Target these 4 New Jersey Congressional Seats
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100210003784
crazycatlady
(4,492 posts)All 3 are the Philly suburbs. Go get em!
MineralMan
(146,333 posts)by local Democrats, who know their own districts better than anybody.
mvd
(65,180 posts)Chrissy Houlahan. Here is her website:
https://www.chrissyhoulahanforcongress.com
She is running against Ryan Costello, who voted for the tax scam bill despite my call and the calls of many others.
Orsino
(37,428 posts)...on an agenda that directly benefits the most potential voters. Be prepared to talk over the cable airheads who work against us.
It sounds impossible, and at this late stage may just be. We've already let too much power slip away into the pockets of the rich.
Now we have to do even more with even less.
TheDebbieDee
(11,119 posts)know how to fight dirty!