I fear it will be difficult to use the tax law against Republicans in 2018.

[Kablooie]

If you understand the implications it's horrendous but those won't be felt in normal people's lives for years yet.

Most people won't understand why the law is a huge shift of cash from our pockets into the super rich because the immediate ramifications will be slightly higher pay checks and lower taxes in April 2019 for most people.
That's going to be hard to demonize, just like the Republicans anticipated.

Most people aren't going to care or understand the long term consequences and by the time the effects are felt, the "new" tax law will be so far back in the past that people won't relate the two.

Cutting Medicare and Social Security may happen soon but they also will be presented as totally unrelated issues.
Dems will explain that it's a direct consequence of the tax law but the explanation takes longer than a quick sound bite so will be hard to sell to most voters.
Reps can just say the deficit it growing too high so we have to cut. A simple, one note explanation.

It's not going to be easy to use this against the Republicans as it should be.

[BannonsLiver]

1. Its already deeply unpopular.

[Kablooie]

2. Yes but starting next year paychecks will be adjusted

and Republicans will be sure that everyone knows.

Attitudes can change over time.

[BannonsLiver]

5. Doubtful.

[Skittles]

9. health insurance will cost more

that will wipe out the pitiful tax savings

also, people stupid enough to vote for Trump will expect MUCH MORE than what they will actually see

[doc03]

19. Republicans will blame Obamacare

[Skittles]

21. they can't

they fucking own ACA now, and EVERYONE knows it

[doc03]

24. The 47% that voted for trump will blame Obamacare

[Skittles]

25. they repealed the mandate, they OWN IT

[doc03]

26. Trumps base won't buy that nt

[Skittles]

28. it won't work

they will look even more stupid than they do now

and Trump HAS lost some support - his approval rating goes down with every poll

[doc03]

29. His peeps have been running around with the thumbs up sign today like

after the election. Every damn TV at the gym was tuned to Faux today.

[Skittles]

31. because they are dumber than dirt

but there will be no escaping the pain from this shit

done here, tired of this

[Pholus]

3. Seems simple to explain...

Look Paul Ryan was bragging that a family of four gets a tax cut of $2400.

Do the math on the $2 Trillion divided by the population of the U.S.

Offer a loan to any Republicans who think this is a good deal at even half that return over 20 years or so.

You will get zero takers.

[uponit7771]

4. 5% of tax payers taxes are going up in 2018 dems can RUN ON THAT ALONE ! Right now they have no

... leadership in their phrasing and that's disappointing

[dflprincess]

6. What may make it difficult is that most of us will see a bump

in our take home pay but many won't really figure out they've been screwed until they file their 2018 taxes in early 2019 - well after the election.

[Skittles]

23. remember when Dubya sent out those checks?

remember what came later?

History repeating itself.

[UTUSN]

7. Starting point: Nothing to fear but fear itself.

[AJT]

8. You are right. Most people will not be adversely affected for a number of years.

[BannonsLiver]

11. Everyone will be affected when their healthcare premiums go up

That’s what’s going to happen with the mandate repeal, and the word will begin to get out at election time next year when open enrollment begins. We are all in for a nasty surprise. Connecting the dots on that will be relatively straightforward.

[AJT]

14. We'll have to see how much the premiums go up for people

who get there insurance through their employers, which is a majority of americans. Since insurance goes up each year anyway the increase will have to be significant for people to look at why it went up so much. We have to remember a vast majority of americans don't pay much attention to anything unless it affects them directly.

[rickford66]

10. Trump promised $4,000 increase in middleclass salary.

Over 10 years not more than $1.00 per day, but the rubes don't understand and expect to see the $4,000.

[Skittles]

27. CORRECT

they are DUMB AS FENCE POSTS

[justiceischeap]

12. I used the calculator on the CNN site

I’m in the 1.8% increase bracket. I did the math and it comes out to $4.15 a week.

You only really “see” a difference when you’re making large sums of money. For those of us that don’t — it’s no windfall.

[BannonsLiver]

13. The Republicans have told everyone to check their paycheck in Feb.

I hope they spread this far and wide because collectively the reaction will be “is that all there is?”, or some other expression of dissapointment from tens of millions of Americans.

[justiceischeap]

15. And when you think about the deductions theyve gotten rid of

people will see they’re paying more for very little in that paycheck.

[roamer65]

16. The resentment of the wealthy not going away.

It is going to exponentially.

Also people in CA, NY, IL, NJ and New England are already pissed over the SALT deduction.

[doc03]

22. They don't vote for Republicans anyway, they couldn't care less. I look for Republicans

to blame the states for that and maybe get Republicans in office to cut taxes.

[exboyfil]

17. My Fed taxes will be 20% lower

About 2K. I don't see how it is possible to keep revenue loss under $1.5T. Everyone is getting a pony.

It will take some voter education to get through this. I don't ho!d much hope.

[doc03]

18. I think you are 100% right if the economy is still

doing good the Republicans will do fine. I think they would have been further ahead if they would have harped on the deficit at least they may have turned a couple Republicans. The debt will increase at least $12 trillion the next ten years mainly because of the Bush and Trump tax cuts. Maybe more if asswipe gets his wars.

[moondust]

20. Kansas Disaster vs. California Miracle

Jerry Brown: California saved its economy by doing the exact opposite of what the GOP wants

~
In an interview with “60 Minutes,” Brown talked about how legislating for climate change and increasing taxes on the wealthy helped take California from the ninth largest economy in the world to the sixth and turned more than $50 billion of debt into a budget surplus of over $7 billion.
~
As Ronald Reagan, Jr. noted earlier this year, California’s success gives the lie to the Republican orthodoxy of “trickle down economics.” By rescinding Republican tax cuts for the wealthy, the state was able to fill its coffers and grow.

This stands in direct contrast the the Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback (R), a Tea Party stalwart who has destroyed his state’s economy by cutting taxes to the bone and thereby bankrupting its coffers. The promised economic boons of tax cuts to millionaires never came.
~more~

[Kablooie]

30. But that's based on reality not propaganda.

So many in this country trust propaganda more than reality nowadays.

[moondust]

35. True.

Propaganda and brainwashing are obviously an old problem dating back probably before the printing press and used variously by religions, Nazis, Communists, Fascists, ISIS, Fox News, and more. I would personally stick with the discernible truth rather than trying to fight fire with fire in this case.

To "60 Minutes" again, this reformed white supremacist who apparently escaped the dark side may offer some clues.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/rejecting-hate-after-spending-nearly-a-decade-spreading-it/

[Iahotdog]

32. If they even whisper a word about cutting my social security

Don't think for a minute I'm too stupid to put 2 and 2 together.....and I won't be afraid to let Ernst and Grassley know how I feel about it either!

[AlexSFCA]

33. the disaster wont happen until after 2020 election

so I am afraid 2018 may not be as rosy for us. Many in red and swing states will get a tax cut. The new tax brackets are lower and it is especially true for married filing jointly. The new standard deduction of 24k for a family will be more than sufficient for vast majority of people instantly simplyfing their tax returns.

Here in California, things are less rosy due to the restrictive 10k cap on salt and property taxes. However, I bet for most families, 24k standard deduction would cover salt and property taxes negating the need to itemize. For people with higher incomes in Cali (and other high income&property tax states), things look worse than before. However, due to the lower and expanded tax brackets for families, it may offset the salt&property tax deduction differential for higher income folks too.

Also, it is safe to assume that the stock market will be doing very well for next couple of years (before the crash). This will make older folks very happy, yielding high retuns on 401k and moving them closer to safe retirement.

The biggest issue is folks who rely on ACA. Without the individual mandate, premiums will become unaffordable.

I am not sure it’s a winning strategy for dems to campaign on repealing the tax bill in swing states.

[mulp]

34. If history repeats...

10 key takeaways from the Republican tax bill
http://wapo.st/2Bnnbje

Point 1 was on the size of this tax cut as share of GDP.

1, 3, and 4 were signed by Obama, extending the Bush tax cuts, 2010, making them permanent, 2012, and the 2009 stimulus tax cuts.

2 was Reagan's job killing 1981 tax cuts. While sluggish, jobs were created until Aug when Reagan signed his tax cut bill and job losses followed until he signed the tax hike following his signing a repeal of much of the 1981 tax cuts when unemployment hit 10.8%

Of the remaining 6, Bush signed 3 of them. And r signed 3 were signed in the Nixon, Ford, Carter year

So, none of those decades are seen by the GOP, or conservatives, as fantastic for the working class.

The 6 different Bush tax cuts failed to prevent a double dip recession, and then ended even worse after the 2008 tax cut.

So, odds are very high the tax cuts will be followed by job losses, without the near record number of months with continuous job gains.

And the right-wing of the GOP is trying to force job killing spending cuts. Cutting the number of health care workers will not create jobs, other than for drug dealers, police, unddertakers. Making disable and elderly homeless and hungry with SS cuts won't create jobs.

Conservatives create a mythical Reagan, but he was saved from defeat my multiple tax and spend hike two years after he was elected until he was reelected. And tax reform in 1986 did not reduce tax revenue much.

Hunker down for the storm. Almost certainly before Trump runs for reelection.

(Of course, if lots of people hunker down, they will drive a recession.)

[delisen]

36. We need leadership outside and beyond the Congress

Democrats in Congress will only be able to do so much in terms of getting out a message, They will focus on electing Democrats to Congress. That is essential work but it is not going to win the war.

Mueller is doing his part, plus the states attorneys general are playing a role

We ned a more organized opposition with multiple voices that command attention and keep the focus on the battle

H. Clinton, James Clapper, Eric Holder are speaking out. We need more people of this stature. Perhaps Al Franken is planning a role.

We are facing a crazed right wing insurgency that that is backed, if not led by, a foreign power that aims to destroy our country.

We were taken by surprise and not yet up to speed-but we re getting there.

Anyone who still thinks that a message about jobs and winning a majority or near majority in congress in 2018 is going to turn things around is whistling in the dark.

[Tiggeroshii]

37. Just frame it as a ransom to the corporations who

Write gave ceased contributing to republicans without it

[pnwmom]

38. Wait till this winter when they start attacking Medicare and Medicaid with the excuse that they need

to do so because of our deficit. The one they just increased.