** CNN GENERIC BALLOT ** Democrats 56% Deplorables 38%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2017/images/12/20/rel12b.-.2018.pdf

Even in aggregate polling we have a thirteen point generic lead:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html

[stonecutter357]

1. K&R

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. Thank you for your K&R before some naysayers arrive.

Thank you for your K&R before some naysayers arrive.

[ehrnst]

7. Yep. (nt)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. My wish was not granted.

[peggysue2]

3. The Blue Tsunami

It's coming!

[tblue37]

4. K&R for visibility. nt

[fountainofyouth]

5. I'm sure more millionaire giveaways will stem that tide n/t

[Persondem]

6. Nice to see but

less important in the age of the Gerrymander.

[Fred Sanders]

12. Why is there always a gloom and doomer on such threads? 18 point difference is massive.

Did you really not know that?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. If

If we really have a thirteen to eighteen point generic advantage on 11/8/18 we will popping champagne bottles of 11/9/18.

[Fred Sanders]

28. Yes. Very enthusiastic to vote is 48 to 32...just as significant. We ARE going to vote in droves.

This time it will be OUR Tea Party moment.

[Persondem]

21. It's called being realistic. Such polls are not as relevant with Gerrymandering

causing elections to be far from your old school even contests. I live in a state with extreme partisan gerrymandering and an 18 point "lead" just means that the playing field might be closer to even than it otherwise would be.

Besides ... all I said was that such polls are "less important" which is very much true. You want to live in a fantasy world, be my guest.

[Fred Sanders]

22. It is your fantasy world if you do not understand what an 18 point difference means. Nationally.

Do not know what Congressional district you are in, but I point out these polls are national, not local.

Experts say a 8 to 10 points is what it would take.

Be a downer, the rest of us understand what this means.

Crushing victory any way you slice and dice 440 districts.

[Persondem]

23. Times have changed ... here's some info and an article on the impact of rigged districts.

"Last fall, voters statewide split their ballots essentially 50-50 between Republican and Democratic state House candidates. Yet Republicans won 57 percent of the House seats, claiming 63 seats to the Democrats’ 47. That amounted to an efficiency gap of 10.3 percent in favor of Michigan’s Republicans, one of the highest advantages among all states."

So in a gerrymandered state a 10% "advantage" is just going to make the contest even. MI isn't even the most gerrymandered state. If you include 3-4% statistical noise then even an 18% "advantage' isn't really much to crow about.

Full article here ... https://www.denverpost.com/2017/06/25/gerrymandering-2016-election/

In a non-gerrymandered state Dems can be very happy about such a margin, but that does not even come close to applying to all 435 districts.

[Fred Sanders]

24. You are using one state example. This is a national poll. 18 points nationally is no contest.

[Persondem]

27. It ain't a national vote. It goes district by district. Never freakin mind

[Moostache]

8. REAL WORLD polling...

% of GOP zealots who will vote in 2018 - 90-95%
% of Democrats who will vote in 2018 - less than half...

THAT is our reality and until it follows Alabama 2017 special election turn out instead of 2016 Presidential turn out, we will LOSE.

The name of the game is turn out and reality is not kind to our side in that tally...

[Fred Sanders]

13. A turnout like 2016 on both sides with an 18 point Democratic advantage? Would be an avalanche.

[LanternWaste]

15. A real world election held last month in VA had a Dem blow out his GOP opponent

A real world election held last month in VA had a Dem candidate for Governor blow out his GOP opponent by the largest margin in over 30 years.

Reality seemed kind.

[B Stieg]

9. It's NOT ENOUGH.

Vote in 2018 or there won't be anything left.

[hibbing]

11. Whoopie

[LanternWaste]

14. Against my will, I'm beginning to feel optimistic about the mid-terms.

Against my will, I'm beginning to feel optimistic about the mid-terms.

They're historically bad news for the party in power, every Dem candidate, incumbent or not, can tie his/her opponent to Trump-- whose numbers are at best, a failing grade from the public, and with these new polling numbers I can't help but feel better about increasing the probabilities of picking up a net gain of 24.

Bear in mind, six months ago, this same poll had Dems with only 5-6 point advantage-- so it seems the public is refusing to make a clear distinction between the party and the president. As long as he keeps making idiot statements, he'll drag the GOPs numbers down as well.

[BigmanPigman]

17. It's guaranteed that the fucking moron

will keep making idiotic statements. We need to remind people about Russia, Healthcare and the Tax Scam. Add a little about sexual harassment by the fake prez and Women's Rights and people will turn Dem again.

[countryken]

16. I don't like the word 'deplorable' in this context

During the campaign, Trump's supporters embraced this term and used it on tee shirts. I'd rather call them 'assholes' or 'jagoffs'. I don't think they'll embrace these terms.

[DownriverDem]

19. Generic who?

I wouldn't put much stock in generic candidates polls. However Rachel did a really good job of showing just how a blue wave could happen. She compared it to 2010 when the country punished the Dems and Obama because of ObamaCare (which the voters like more than not now). I remember that we Dems didn't see the wave coming just like the repubs now.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. It means that 56% of Americans plan to vote

It means that 56% of Americans plan to vote for the Democratic candidate rom sheriff to senator.

[question everything]

25. Now all we need are credible candidates

who will offer positive ideas, not just go after Whiny Donny.

[janterry]

26. This only counts on election day

while it is heartening and I"m gad to see it..............in this case, winning is the only thing. And it's still a long way off until election day