Political scientist identifies the 21 seats most likely to flip from red to blue.

[RandySF]

Link to tweet

[DangerousRhythm]

1. I am in TX-07.

Two blue votes in my household.

[Dawson Leery]

2. kick

[Takket]

3. my rethug in MI-11 is not seeking relection. great chance for Dems here!!!!!!!!!!!

[Rhiannon12866]

4. K&R! Hoping to add NY-21 to that list!

[Fred Sanders]

5. CNN: 18 point Generic voting spread nationally would wipeout gerrymandering effect.

[Me.]

6. Don't We Need 24 To Take Back The House?

[RandySF]

9. The 21 most likely to flip

I’ll revide the title.

[Me.]

11. 21 Is A Start

But Google was my friend and we need 24

[RandySF]

12. Its going to be close either

Not only did gerrymandering do a job on us, but Dems are clustered in cities and suburbs.

[Me.]

17. Too True

[Brother Buzz]

7. Damn, five from California

I was thinking we might be good for flipping three, but five works for me.

[Gabi Hayes]

8. This is ALL on how the media portrays the reality of what the crooks have just wrought.

Hard to believe that any sentient being who’s not rich or beholden to the war pigs can vote against their interests after the biggest shift of wealth since the French and commie revolutions

If the dolts are allowed to get the real scoop on what’s happening, who knows?

I don’t see any reason to think this will happen, given how they IGNORED the innumerable crimes, fraud, etc., committed by T. They didn’t talk about ANY of the big stuff. All superfluous BS, almost all centered around crooked Hillary

Talk about fake news

[RandySF]

10. I think its closer to 7

I would add the Walters and Rorabacher seats.

[k8conant]

13. We desperately need to flip WV-2

and get rid of the carpetbagger Alex X. Mooney who won't appear in public in the state and ran away when we questioned him in January at the WV State Society reception in DC.

[Staph]

14. I think we can flip WV-3.

Evan Jenkins is running for Manchin's senate seat, so he is not running in the primary for his own house seat. And I'm not aware of any Republicans who have declared for that seat yet, though I know of at least three Democrats who are stepping up. Democrats with good name recognition!

[k8conant]

15. I certainly hope so...Jenkins is real piece of work.

[Awsi Dooger]

16. He's focusing primarily on the partisan index of each district

That's the sensible way to do it, this far removed.

Instead of fixation on who the likely candidates are, he is sticking the districts with favorable blue partisan index on top, correctly assuming that with the likely Democratic tilt in 2018 those seats are high likelihood to switch.

The partisan index is the relationship between the national voting average and how that district voted. For example, since the nation was roughly 3 points blue in 2016 -- despite Hillary's defeat -- then a D +5 district would be one that favored Hillary by 8 points.

I used to post those numbers here about 15 years ago, before they were widely known and before Nate Silver came along. He mostly ruined political wagering. It used to be easy pickings when the oddsmakers mostly guessed at what the correct odds should be, instead of using sound mathematical formulas like Silver's.

My stuff wasn't nearly as sophisticated as Silver's. But it didn't need to be. It was far superior to anything the oddsmakers were applying.

That district on top is my district -- Florida 27. Rose-Lehtinen, or however she spells it, is retiring. That's the reason for the 99%. Many Democrats have lined up to run in a blue leaning district.

Still, I'm never comfortable with 99% assertions, although this one is far more valid than the ones TruthIsAll used to apply around here.

Those West Virginia districts that have been mentioned in this thread have very heavy red partisan index tilt. That's why they don't appear.

[dalton99a]

18. Kick

GOTV

[MineralMan]

19. In Minnesota, we have a good chance of flipping

two seats, as the list indicates. However, Tim Walz, the rep. from CD1 will be running for Governor, not for re-election. That creates a problem that may limit our pickup to one House seat. However, if a strong Democratic candidate runs for that open seat, CD1 could be saved through backlash against Trump.

CD1 is a long way away for me, so I haven't been following it closely. I will start, though. We need a solid Democrat who is well-known in that agricultural area. The district is a net Republican district, though, so it will have to be someone who isn't too far to the left. Otherwise he or she will have little chance. However, the Trump effect can be used to increase turnout of Democrats.

It will be a tricky district, and I don't know it all that well. The only city of size in it is Rochester. There's a fairly large immigrant population in the area these days, though. How many of them are eligible to vote I do not know, but a campaign there must bring them all in to the polls to have a chance, really.