The Democrats Wave Could Turn Into A Flood (FiveThirtyEight)

[workinclasszero]

The Democrats’ Wave Could Turn Into A Flood
By Harry Enten DEC. 22, 2017 AT 5:51 AM

A new CNN survey released this week showed Democrats leading Republicans by an astounding 56 percent to 38 percent on the generic congressional ballot. That’s an 18 percentage point lead among registered voters — a record-breaking result. No other survey taken in November or December in the year before a midterm has found the majority party in the House down by that much since at least the 1938 cycle (as far back as I have data).

And while the CNN poll is a bit of an outlier, the Democratic advantage in the FiveThirtyEight generic ballot aggregate is up to about 12 points, 49.6 percent to 37.4 percent. That average, like the CNN poll, also shows Republicans in worse shape right now than any other majority party at this point in the midterm cycle since at least the 1938 election.

So Democrats are up a lot. A lot a lot. But how might a lead this big manifest itself in 2018?

First, Democrats are probably favorites to win the House. Their current advantage is larger than the lead Republicans had at this point in the 1994 cycle, the lead Democrats held at this point in the 2006 cycle or the lead Republicans had at this point in the 2010 cycle. Those were all years when the minority party won control of the House.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-democrats-wave-could-turn-into-a-flood/

[member12]

1. CNN surveys are usually on point

This is promising news.

[Fred Sanders]

2. Very encouraging and the huge spread is likely to remain, per the article.

We’re still nearly a year away (less than 11 months) from the midterm elections, however. And voter preferences at this point can change dramatically by election day; the average difference between the congressional ballot at this point and the final result is about 9 percentage points. But most large shifts on the generic ballot from this point onward have occurred against the party that holds the White House.4 Once you take into account who holds the White House, the generic ballot at this point is usually predictive of the midterm House result."

[NCDem777]

3. Don't rely on polls. Make it so

If you don’t have the proper voter ID, get one. If your Democratic friend does not have one, help them get one. There’s 11 months before the election. About 300 days. At some point, we can get them. And make sure you know where your polling place is and when election day is, Make sure every single one of your friends know. There’s going to be a lot of misinformation. Twitter trolls telling black people that election day changed. Club for Growth and Americans for Prosperity will be sending out fliers with the wrong date of the election to every minority community in America. They’ve done this bullshit before. We need to go into every community, especially ones where English is not the primary language and make it clear that anyone who tries to tell them Election Day has changed is lying.

[Kirk Lover]

4. No wave...TSUNAMI.

[workinclasszero]

6. YES!

[Spider Jerusalem]

5. I'm not going to be too hopeful yet; this is a source for some cautious optimism, *but*...

it seems like even in a lot of cases where people have a an attitude of "vote the bums out" toward Congress, in general, they'll vote to re-elect their own local representative/senator, and that's probably magnified by the intensity of partisanship in the current environment (and the effects of gerrymandering). So I'm hoping for a Democratic Congress, come January 2019, but I don't feel like it's a certainty.