Newt Gingrich promises "enormous shock" in 2018: Yeah, but for whom?

[DonViejo]

Everyone’s still wrong about Trump, says former speaker, and Republicans will surge to victory. Like in 1998, Newt?

HEATHER DIGBY PARTON

12.29.2017•8:00 AM

As we come to the end of this stressful Year One, and political observers look back on the carnage wrought by Donald Trump, there are a few rays of hope. While Trump touts his nonexistent successes and fatuously claims to be the most accomplished president in history, the people who crunch numbers are noting that the Democratic edge in the generic 2018 congressional midterm ballot is reaching historic levels.

Harry Enten at FiveThirtyEight put it this way:

The Democratic advantage in the FiveThirtyEight generic ballot aggregate is up to about 12 points, 49.6 percent to 37.4 percent. That average, like the CNN poll, also shows Republicans in worse shape right now than any other majority party at this point in the midterm cycle since at least the 1938 election.

He had previously calculated that in order for the Democrats to flip the House, considering their disadvantage from gerrymandering, they would have to be up by 5.5 to 8 points. According to him, there are as many as 103 GOP-held seats that could be in danger. Obviously, most of those Republicans will win because incumbents almost always do. But consider the 2010 election, when the GOP had a seven-point advantage in the generic poll and there were 101 Democratic seats in possible danger. The Republicans won 65 of them. It happens.

Of course, public opinion can change over the course of a year. But Enten points out that, historically, "most large shifts on the generic ballot from this point onward have occurred against the party that holds the White House. Once you take into account who holds the White House, the generic ballot at this point is usually predictive of the midterm House result." In other words, the Democrats have a very good chance of taking back control of at least the House -- and possibly even winning back the Senate.

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https://www.salon.com/2017/12/29/newt-gingrich-promises-enormous-shock-in-2018-yeah-but-for-whom/

[louis-t]

1. No one cares what ethically challenged Newt says.

Lying, cheating, piece of garbage that he is.

[ProfessorGAC]

2. Not To Mention, That His Own Party. . .

. . .ran him out of DC. Now, he's supposed to be credible spokesman? The R's kicked him to the curb.

[Wellstone ruled]

3. Is Newt signalling the use of

dirty tricks and voter suppression in order to perverse Republican Majority? He made a similar statement in October of 2016.