How Democracies Die

[kentuck]

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/1/4/16841070/trumpocracy-or-democracy

<snip>
If Republicans hold on to both houses of Congress in this year’s midterm elections, the American system of government could very well collapse into Donald Trump’s distinctive — and disturbing — vision of a personalized, authoritarian state.

Dozens of Republicans in Congress started out skeptical of Trump but have fallen in line behind him as he signed their top initiatives into law, like a trillion-dollar giveaway to the very rich. In exchange they’ve turned a blind eye to Trump’s significant financial conflicts of interest, repeated efforts to undermine the integrity of the criminal justice process, and more. The few remaining critics plan to leave Washington.

This is one of Trump’s most underappreciated political achievements of the year: consolidation of power over a party to which he had scant personal or institutional ties. And all signs are that if Republicans win in 2018, slavish loyalty to Trump will only grow more ingrained, especially because Trump himself makes no secret that loyalty to him is the key to access, and access is the key to policy influence.

In their new book How Democracies Die, Harvard political scientists Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt flag this as a key threat to democratic stability. Institutions don’t typically collapse under sudden attack. Rather, “if a charismatic outsider emerges on the scene, gaining popularity as he challenges the old order, it is tempting for establishment politicians who feel their control is unraveling to try to co-opt him.” From Mussolini to Hugo Chávez, authoritarians end up winning because these “fateful alliances” end up leading establishment politicians to collaborate with the demagogue not just on their points of policy agreement but on the demagogue’s desire to dismantle critical institutions.

[Sharpshooter007]

1. Betting websites such as predictit and predictwise say there's a 60% chance of taking back the house

and a 40-45% of taking back the senate, so the chances are we're likely to be taking back one of them, likely the house.

The democrats will make inroads, almost all incumbent presidencies lose seats while in power. Reagan, Clinton, Obama all had disastrous mid terms (Obama actually had two terrible ones in both 2010 and 2014).

So even Trump shouldn't avoid this political norm.