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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsThis is how nuclear war with North Korea would unfold
MARCH 2019: For years, North Korea had staged provocations and South Korea had lived with them. The two had come close to war before: In 2010, a North Korean torpedo detonated just below a South Korean navy corvette, cutting the ship in two and sending 46 sailors to their deaths. Later that year, when North Korean artillery barraged a South Korean island and killed four more people, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak reportedly ordered aircraft to deliver a counter-strike deep inside North Korea, but the U.S. military held him back.
This time was different. No one thought President Moon Jae-in, a South Korean progressive known for his attempts to engage the North, would want blood. But nobody grasped how quickly accidental violence could take on its own urgent logic.
In late February, the United States was moving military forces into the region for an annual joint exercise with the South code-named Foal Eagle . South Korea had canceled the 2018 exercise to avoid upsetting the North before the Winter Olympics in PyeongChang. To make up for the lost year, the 2019 drill was larger than ever.
When a South Korean airliner strayed into North Korean airspace, a Northern air defense crew, already jumpy and anticipating the allied maneuvers in the Sea of Japan, mistook it for an American bomber. The crew fired a surface-to-air missile, sending the plane plunging into the ocean, killing all 250 people on board.
The South Korean public was outraged. Within hours, Moon ordered South Korean missile units to strike the air defense battery, as well as select leadership targets throughout North Korea. Moons limited missile strike might have been enough by itself to start the nuclear war of 2019. South Korean and American officials are still trading accusations. But the surviving members of the Moon administration insist that things would have been fine had President Trump not picked up his smartphone: LITTLE ROCKET MAN WONT BE AROUND MUCH LONGER!
https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/this-is-how-nuclear-war-with-north-korea-would-unfold/2017/12/08/4e298a28-db07-11e7-a841-2066faf731ef_story.html?utm_term=.c6e3d2087bd9
dewsgirl
(14,961 posts)RandySF
(59,071 posts)Arms Control Wonk
NickB79
(19,257 posts)Even a limited nuclear exchange of a few dozen warheads would be enough to trigger crop failures for several years afterwards as global temps fall and rainfall patterns are disrupted. That would kill off far more people than the actual bombs would.