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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsPA-18: New poll shows Conor Lamb pulling to within a dead heat.
Democrats have been going through a sort of Poll Panic of late, agonizing over the apparent loss of a big advantage in the congressional generic ballot, and also small but steady improvements in the presidents job approval ratings.
Today, its Republicans turn to look at poll numbers and freak.
A rare public poll (from Monmouth) of the special congressional election race in the 18th Congressional District of Pennsylvania shows Democrat Conor Lamb within the margin of error of the lead of Republican Rick Saccone. The lead for Saccone ranges from five points (50/45) in a low-turnout scenario, to four points (48/44) in a very-high-turnout scenario, to just three points (49/46) in a scenario based on the turnout patterns in 2017 special elections.
hats newsworthy because this is a race where the Republican should be far ahead. PA-18 is both strongly Republican and strongly pro-Trump. The GOP congressman (Tim Murphy) whose sex-scandal-driven resignation forced this special election faced no Democratic opponent in 2016 or 2014; even in the Democratic landslide years of 2006 and 2008 he won with 58 percent and 64 percent of the vote, respectively. There is not, moreover, any reason to expect an anti-Trump backlash to demoralize Republican voters: Trump carried the 18th by 20 points (as compared to his one-point margin in Georgias Sixth District, the historically Republican district that was the site of last years hottest House special election).
Some observers of the race have noted that Lamb, a young former prosecutor with deep roots in Pittsburgh politics, is a more attractive figure than Saccone. But the Republican has been given every bit of help money and power can arrange. Trump is scheduled to make his second appearance with Saccone next week. Mike Pence has been thumping the tubs for him as well.
Perhaps the Monmouth poll shows all this effort is necessary. And its obviously possible this survey is an outlier. But Monmouth has a very good reputation, and its not some routinely pro-Democratic outfit (indeed, a January Monmouth poll showing the Democratic congressional generic ballot lead dropping to two points probably started the current Poll Panic among members of the Donkey Party). And for the record, it used the same variable-turnout-model approach in the run-up to Decembers Alabama general election, and its 2017 special election model showed a dead heat, even as most pollsters predicted a Moore win.
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/02/the-special-election-in-deep-red-pa-18-is-a-dead-heat.html
CaliforniaPeggy
(149,678 posts)NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)Horizens
(637 posts)Lamb should try to make the trump's and the repubs. lack of response to Russia's attack on our sovereignty the number 1 narrative.s
RandySF
(59,093 posts)The district is still struggling economically.
NBachers
(17,133 posts)He's bubbling on the surface of public awareness, but he's going to need a bigger push than he's getting now.
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/lamb-for-congress-1