TX-SEN: I don't know what our chances are in November, but I DO know..

[RandySF]

that Ted Cruz is running around Texas tonight like a chicken with its head cut off, attacking Beto in front of every reporter within earshot. Does that sound like someone who should be confident of his reelection?

[Yavin4]

1. Esp.for an incumbent Republican in a deep red state

He should be confident as hell. He is showing weakness.

[quartz007]

4. Cruz has made wrong predictions before

Didn't he predict he would be the gop presidential nominee in 2016?

[gratuitous]

8. As I recall

Cruz blamed God when that prediction went south on him ("him" being Cruz, not God).

[radical noodle]

2. I saw that Cruz has bad poll numbers

40% approval and 46% disapproval. That's not good in a year like this one.

[Phoenix61]

3. Good. Crazy, anxious people make mistakes

I don't know what Beto's odds are but I sure hope he wins.

[helpisontheway]

5. True...So I take it there werent any surprises for Dems

tonight. Media said something about big Dem turnout could make a couple of race interesting tonight. However, they did not really talk about the races tonight (on MSNBC) unless I missed it.

[RandySF]

6. Well

Turnout was not as big as hoped for after today's vote was taken into account and some of our best Congressional candidates went down in flames. On the bright side, we had a good night for state legislative candidates.

[redstateblues]

7. This was overhyped. The George P Bush race was

The only race of note. The most important race before November is the Conor Lamb contest

[helpisontheway]

12. Okay. Thank you for the summary. Glad the state legislative candidates had a good night. Nt

[Yupster]

15. Put it this way.

Cruz got more votes than Beto.

In fact, Cruz got more votes than Beto and Beto's two Democratic opponents put together.

In fact, Cruz got slightly more votes than Beto, Beto's two Democratic opponents, and Cruz's two Republican opponents put together.

[DoctorJoJo]

9. If Cruz Loses, Who Assumes His Mantel Of Most Punchable Face?

[Marie Marie]

10. Even if he loses, he still has a punchable face.

And that, along with his awful personality, will follow him for the rest of his life.

[Luciferous]

21. Paul Ryan. I hate that smarmy fucker.

[LudwigPastorius]

11. Cruz can eat a bag of dicks.

If Beto doesn't win, I'll still count the fact that he's making Raphael crap himself a victory.

[Skittles]

13. Ted is such a fucking wienie

[Dopers_Greed]

14. Ted Cruz is in trouble, and he knows it

-His own underwater poll numbers
-Trump's albatross status
-Beto's campaign has been killing it, and raising money comparable to Cruz

The entire general election is still ahead of us, but at this point, I think Beto has a shot at taking it.

[NewJeffCT]

26. Also, when you compare O'Rourke to 2012's Democratic opponent for Cruz

O'Rourke is light years ahead. Paul Sadler was the Democratic nominee and he raised less than $150,000 in total, but lost the race by "only" 16 points, a margin similar to what Obama lost TX to Romney by.

In 2016, Hillary lost TX by under 10% and that was before Trump became politically poisonous.

Now, with O'Rourke already having raised a few million and Cruz having the Trumptanic anchor around his neck, I think he has a shot.

[onetexan]

16. Cruz got over 475000 GOP votes yesterday in the primaries

While Be to got 43,447. 1.5 million Conservatives voted in GOP primaries while Dems turnout was about a million. We still have a lot of GOTV work to do to get Beto elected in november.

[blogslut]

17. That's not at all correct

The TX SOS site is still updating but Beto got just under a million votes and democratic turnout was a little over 1,600,000 as of my last reading.

Cruz comes in just shy of 2 million and overall GOP turnout is just under 2,350,000

[onetexan]

23. you must have the latest update; mine was from last evening before i went to bed

Can you have the TX SOS site link? Only latest update i found is from NYT here
https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/texas-primary-election

According to this site Beto got 641,052 votes, and overall Dems turnout @ 1,036,942 votes, 99% reporting (7,649 of 7,694 precincts).

Anyhow, this shows us GOP turnout is still considerably higher than Dems. Given it's only primaries it's understandable, as more voters tend to turn out in the November elections. Hopefully this is the case and we can get more Dems voters to come to the polls.

[blogslut]

24. Here's the page for both parties

https://enrpages.sos.state.tx.us/

Each link opens a not-very-good spreadsheet, which I think separates the early voting totals from the primary day totals. I don't know for sure. I guess it's a miracle there's vote data at all. Sigh.

[duforsure]

18. Ted Cruz

Voted for the tax scam which also kicked millions off of their health care, and will cause the rest to see their premiums skyrocket up, again (Rubio caused it to do that 2016 Sept.). Cruz is not for the people of Texas and is voting to destroy Social Security , and Medicaid and Medicare, and Ted Cruz won't vote to ban assault weapons of war. A small list of things he's doing and aligning with trump , so it's no surprise he's sweating he'll lose . Ted Cruz is also the most hated man in Congress. Ted also is backing trump and putin, enough to turn anyone in Texas against him. Such a liar too. He's in trouble.

[vercetti2021]

19. 1,315,430 voted for Cruz

And combined, 1,541,232 voted R.

Beto was able to get 640,770 of the vote.

The voting differences are 674,660. Between the two.

Combining the democratic vote total would be 1,036,484

So a total differential would be 504,748

So we need to high an extremely high turnout come November, the independent vote has to be in our favor as well.

It's going to take be a hard fight uphill to get Beto elected here. This state won't be flipping this year or the next election cycle. Still a lot of R votes out there. Mind you I'm not being a drag or bum out anyone. It's more of analyzing the totals to see how much of a fight it will be to get a victory.

[blogslut]

20. Did you add in the early voting totals?

Maybe I'm reading that spreadsheet wrong but it looks like the early votes were tallied separately.

[vercetti2021]

22. I could have missed it

This could be from just today voting. I grabbed it from NYTimes.

[blogslut]

25. I put a link to the TX SOS site in reply #24

[vercetti2021]

27. These are election night returns

So not sure if early voting totals were added or not.

[blogslut]

28. Did you look?

Early voting is listed in the results but, weirdly separately.

[vercetti2021]

29. I can't find it

[blogslut]

31. The words are very clear at the top of the statewide results.

And in the spreadsheet results for County by County for US Senator "Early" is in a sub cell for each county.

I know I'm bad at math but I'm neither blind nor completely insane. Or am I?

[MissMillie]

30. What is it about the people of TX or

Mississippi, or Alabama, or Georgia, or Utah, Or Idaho, or Wyoming....

are they all so desperate for a tax cut of $200/year?

Why can't the Democratic Party pull them in?

[NewJeffCT]

33. A combination of several things, I think

1) The Texas economy has overall been doing better than the US economy and Republicans have been in power in TX for 20+ years now, so it reflects well on them.
2) The Texas GOP has put up a lot of roadblocks to voting for minorities and students.
3) The Democrats have not had a deep bench and have not put forward really strong candidates that can succeed on a statewide basis.
4) Voter registration is lower for minorities in Texas, partly because of #3 above

[ananda]

32. I worry about the respective voting numbers.

Cruz and other Reeps in that race got well over a million votes. Cruz
himself got 1.3 million.

Valdez, White, and the Dems got much less than a million.. combined.

I really thought the Dems would turn out in bigger numbers.

Am I being a nervous Nellie or Eeyore? I worry.

[NewJeffCT]

34. primary turnout is usually not reflective of turnout in the general election

usually,