Cook Report breaks down state legislative battles....ARIZONA????

[RandySF]

Storey also points out that the party holding the White House has lost state legislative seats in 27 out of the last 29 midterm elections, and the losses averaged 375 seats nationwide. In 2006, President George W. Bush’s second midterm, Democrats gained 10 legislative chambers (two of those had been tied before) while the GOP flipped just two. In 2010, 23 chambers shifted from Democrat to Republican and another switched from Democratic-held to tied; no chambers flipped the other direction from Republican to Democrat. In 2014, Obama’s second midterm, 11 chambers switched from Democrat to Republican; none went in the opposite direction.

Among Republican-held state legislative chambers this year, the state Senates in Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and Wisconsin are considered toss-ups while the Connecticut Senate, currently tied, is expected to go Democratic in November. The Arizona House and New Hampshire Senate are battlegrounds, but the GOP is given the edge at this point to retain control. Democrats have majorities that are at least theoretically endangered in the Maine House as well as the state Senates in Nevada and Washington state. In two interesting twists, the New York state Senate technically has a Democratic majority but is controlled by a GOP-led coalition, while the Alaskan House has a Republican majority but has a Democratic-led coalition in control.

Storey notes that the list of highly vulnerable Republican-controlled chambers seems shorter than one might expect, given midterm-election patterns. Polling, and the number of seats captured by Democrats since November 2016, show a difficult environment for Republicans. But Democrats start off in a deep hole, in part because of Republican maps drawn in the 2011 redistricting, as well as population sorting—with Democratic voters naturally concentrated in urban areas and GOP voters more efficiently allocated around the country and within most states. Should the blue tidal wave be as big as Democrats pray and Republicans fear, we could see GOP-controlled state House chambers in Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania endangered as well as state Senates in Florida, Michigan, and North Carolina. (Redistricting litigation in North Carolina and Wisconsin could change some district boundaries between now and November.)


https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/whats-stake-state-legislative-races

[DeminPennswoods]

1. It would take a tsunami to flip the PA state house

or senate, imho.

[DFW]

2. Charlie often puts a lot of caveats into his predictions

But he also puts in a LOT of miles to check out the situation on the ground, too. Just try to call him in his office some time. He's NEVER there. He's always out of town (DC). He's not a Fox pundit. He usually observes and THEN analyzes.

[crazycatlady]

3. Never say never

We came within ONE vote of flipping a gerrymandered VA state house.

A candidate who only filed this week in Maine has already raised 6 figures.

[RandySF]

4. Kicked for visibility