Insiders See Democratic House Gains of 30-45 seats

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Seven and a half months before the midterm elections, the combination of attitudinal and behavioral evidence leads to a single conclusion: The Democrats are very likely to win control of the House in November.

Just as important, Republican and Democratic campaign strategists also agree that an electoral wave has already formed. The attitudinal evidence begins with national polling.

President Donald Trump’s job approval rating has settled into a relatively narrow range, with between 39 percent and 42 percent of registered voters approving of his performance. Only 33 percent to 37 percent of respondents say that the country is headed in the right direction, another bit of evidence that reflects the extent of support for Trump and the Republican Party.

The current congressional generic ballot question suggests that Democrats have an 8- or 9-point advantage, a significant margin even if it is at least a couple of points below what Democrats would ideally want going into the midterms.

...


http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/insiders-see-democratic-house-gains-30-45-seats

[ck4829]

1. Not quite satisfying. Let's work to make it double that, at least.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. The beef.

“It’s baked in now,” one veteran Republican campaign veteran told me, noting the GOP’s problems with women and college-educated voters. “We knew single women hated [the Republican Party]. We couldn’t do anything about that. But married women were different. We figured out how to deal with them by talking about pocketbook issues. But now college-educated women hate us. Even with the current economy. It’s the bullying, the nastiness, the tweeting. It’s all about Trump’s behavior.”

[Fullduplexxx]

3. More attempts at inducing complacency

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. Beside insiders I suspect few people read Roll Call.

I only found it because I was looking at Maggie Haberman's twitter page.

[crazycatlady]

8. Roll Call's app is surprisingly good

Even when I don't get to read it, it sends the headlines to my tablet as alerts.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. It is more of an insiders site but is very good. No spin.

[crazycatlady]

10. I'm a campaign staffer myself

SO I guess you can call me an insider.

[FakeNoose]

5. We need to do better in the Senate too

The House is very important for impeachment articles, but the Senate has an iron grip on much, much more.

Just sayin'

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. Would you rather have 30 in the House and 3 in the Senate which gives us majorities in both chambers

Would you rather have 30 in the House and 3 in the Senate which gives us majorities in both chambers or 60 in the House and O in the Senate ?

[FakeNoose]

7. It feels like a trick question

... but certainly it would be nice to win majorities in both houses. Let's win by a comfortable margin.