Spitballing/hypothesizing about Mueller Obstruction report
I'm still trying to read the tea leaves from yesterday's report from the Washington Post about the status of the Mueller investigation. As I said previously, I think the fact that Trump reported is considered a "subject" of the investigation but not necessarily a "target" yet is probably of little consequence when you think about it--there's thin, hair line distinctions between the terms as it is, and the fact that he might not be a target yet is not of any permanence.
What I'm more interested is the reported possibility that Mueller might issue an initial report on the investigation into allegations of Obstruction of Justice on Trump's part while he continues his probe into the significantly more complex collusion issue, and the possibility that the report could be issued around June or July of this year.
This had me thinking about what that timeline might mean, and here's what I think could possibly be Mueller's thought process here. Just a complete guess, not saying take this to the bank, but here's what I think:
1. After looking at the evidence, Mueller believes there is enough evidence on just the Obstruction of Justice issue alone to recommend Congress take it under consideration for the purposes of impeachment of Donald Trump. He knows there is already precedence of Obstruction of Justice as an impeachable issue, mainly and substantively via Watergate but nominally for the Clinton/Monica thing as well.
2. Mueller is still hesitant/conservative (small c) to indict a sitting president and would prefer all questions of criminal culpability be weighed after Trump leaves office.
3. Mueller--the consummate non-partisan--does not want his investigation to be a political football between the parties. He does not want his report to be considered an "October Surprise" one way or the other.
4. So he issues his report recommending impeachment on Obstruction in June or July, or 3-4 months before the November midterm elections. That gives everyone in the current Congress plenty of headway to debate whether to bring impeachment charges against Trump without springing that question on them at the last moments before election, or waiting for a more favorable Congress after the election that might lead to claims of political bias in the investigation. He wants to give both Republicans and Democrats currently in Congress the chance to consider the charges.
5. Meanwhile, he continues his investigation into collusion, which is the real substantive meat and potatoes of the investigation. At the point of the conclusion of the collusion investigation, Congress may have already impeached and removed Donald Trump and if there is cause to criminally indict Donald Trump at that point, he can then proceed without the controversy of indicting a sitting President.
Again, this is just a possibility I see playing out. Now, be forewarned there's also the chance that he might issue a report in June or July that completely exonerates Trump of Obstruction of Justice, although it's hard to justify that conclusion when this (among many other things) is already in the public record:
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