China is much better prepared to win a trade war than us.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

They have a largely command economy and an authoritarian/totalitarian political system and their people will suffer privations in the name of national honor Americans never will.

[Tavarious Jackson]

1. We would have been in a much better position had we joined TPP

But NOOOOOOOO The purist.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. TPP was a hedge against China

11 players and 40% of the world economy. We could have went against China as a team.

[David__77]

3. The purist Clinton who strongly opposed TPP?

...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. That was a huge mistake.

China needs to be confronted, albeit peacefully.

[Mellomugwump]

8. Clinton had to....

Because Bernie made so much noise about it being bad I seem to remember him bringing up the fact that she called it "the gold standard" in trade deals as a negative against her. That was a big talking point of his. I think alot of people believed him without understanding it.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. It's academic now but the positive aspects of TPP outweighed the negative impacts.

[David__77]

11. You dont think she stood on personal conviction?

I don’t see why she had to take a position if she didn’t agree.

[Mellomugwump]

13. Because it was too complicated of a subjecr

To educate people on during a rally, and in most main stream interviews, she spent most of her time talking about her emails.

I don't remember hearing much pro -TPP talk here during the election. It seems Bernie (and others) did a good job of convincing everybody that it was a bad thing. I think she felt she couldn't get the nomination if she defended it. She was also getting beat up over NAFTA, so she couldn't be pro TPP with Bernie bashing both non stop and getting so much support. It wasn't something she felt she should fall on her sword over...I'm guessing.

I have a low post count but I've been around for awhile - since 2004, but I had to change user names because I took a break during the Snowden worshipping years and couldn't remember my user name.

[dawg]

15. I think she would have signed a "revised" version of the TPP.

Mostly cosmetic changes, but enough to be able to truthfully say that she had made it more worker-friendly.

Would that have been mostly a political exercise? Yes, of course.

But it would also have led to the best possible result for the country. And that, ultimately, is the goal of a good politician.

[Tavarious Jackson]

16. No she didn't

She said she would bargain for a better deal

[David__77]

17. She said she opposed TPP and would oppose it as president.

She said so: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2016-08-11/clinton-i-oppose-tpp-now-and-i-ll-oppose-it-as-president

She opposed TPP.

[FBaggins]

4. Thats way too oversimplified

We aren’t the only two countries in the world... and it’s much easier to find alternate suppliers of cheap goods than to find alternate consumers of those goods.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. It would take years to replace China as a supplier of cheap goods.

My microwave, refrigerator, oven, dishwasher, flat screen, smartphone and laptop are made in China. It wasn't a conscious decision. I even tried to find an American made flat screen. It would take decades to build the factories to replace the factories in China that build them, and at what cost.

If Xi Jinping starts dumping the American bonds China holds global markets will be thrown into a tizzy and we will see Dow 5,000 before we see Dow 30,000.

[FBaggins]

10. Not really

South Korea makes all of those things and have plenty of spare capacity ... and the decision doesn’t have to be conscious. Prices take care of that. A trade war wouldn’t mean that we can’t get iPhones any longer... it just means that iPhones are 20% more expensive than the comparable Samsung.

Nor do I buy the “they own our debt” argument. If we want to talk “who gets hurt more”, we have to realize that those bonds mean that we spent the last few decades exchanging their stuff for pieces of paper that say “I.O.U.”... if they decide to take action that makes the paper worth less... they’re the ones who suffer. Plus the end result would be a much cheaper dollar... changing the debate from “less iPhone and more Samsung” to “Apple starts making iPhones in the US”... which is also hard to spin as better for China than US.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. Inflationary...

it just means that iPhones are 20% more expensive than the comparable Samsung.

A 20% increase in cost of goods is a lot of money, especially with stagnant wage growth.

Nor do I buy the “they own our debt” argument. If we want to talk “who gets hurt more”, we have to realize that those bonds mean that we spent the last few decades exchanging their stuff for pieces of paper that say “I.O.U.”

If China starts dumping U S debt the U.S. will have to increase the yield on the debt it sells to attract new buyers. This is highly inflationary.


And how are the equities and bond markets going to react during all this tumult, especially in a market priced for perfection ?

All this is moot because Trump will blink first. He'a fake tough guy. It reminds me of when we emergency landed a fighter plane in China after inadvertently dowing one of their fighter jets in a skirmish they initiated. They gave us our plane back, months later, in a million little pieces.

[Freethinker65]

6. If we had not pissed off all of our former trading partners and had a stable genius for a leader...

A leader that was knowledgeable, or at least had members of his team that were knowledgeable, in global economic trade policy and diplomacy, trade issues could be negotiated from a stronger U.S. position and be far less destructive.

Unfortunately we have unstable ignorant con-artist Trump who thinks he can bluff and threaten entire super-power countries the way he sometimes "successfully" dealt with porn star secrets and non-payment of Trump development subcontractors.

[FarCenter]

14. We're have huge trade deficits because of the last 3 decades of stable genius leaders

That encouraged US companies to invest abroad, move production to Asia, and outsource to foreign manufacturers.