It looks like the sell off is picking up steam

[DemocratSinceBirth]

https://www.google.com/search?q=dow&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS724US724&oq=dow&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l2j69i59j0l2.1371j0j8&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

[Girard442]

1. If you go there, take a moment to click on the one-year chart.

Gives you some perspective on let-Trump-be-Trump.

[saidsimplesimon]

5. Saw this after

posting the comment below.

[lapfog_1]

8. The market is up 17.8% (as of right now) from Jan 20, 2017.

Not the 40+ percent the twitler is claiming.

However 10 days of "trade war" announcements and, even with the stock friendly huge tax cut, we will be down since the advent of Trump.

We are already in correction territory.

We may be looking at a "bagel" (West Wing TV show term)

[saidsimplesimon]

2. Thank you

I can't bring myself to click on anything that appears on google. Can you provide a clue to the original source? I can pick it up from there.

[asiliveandbreathe]

7. I use Bing...will that help...

https://www.bing.com/search?q=dow&qs=ds&form=QBRE

26616 52 week high

24434 start today -
24130 now..down 374 today...
yippee..

[saidsimplesimon]

11. Yes, it does, thank you.

[dalton99a]

3. Trump is the ultimate black swan event

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/02/why-everything-about-the-trump-crash-is-bs

“If [Trump] keeps his mouth shut, I think that he’s probably O.K., even if the market goes to bear territory,” continued the senior Wall Street banker. He worries, though, that Trump can’t control himself, can’t resist being in the headlines every day and can’t resist turning every small issue into a major conflagration. Over time, Trump’s behavior will take its toll. “If he wasn’t such a serial liar, brutish, unprincipled, semiliterate, policy-inept person with no fundamental principles or morals, putting all that aside, he hasn’t been horrible,” he said. “But he’s a complete dick. He’s even more than a total dick. You can be stylistically a total dick. You can have a short temper. You can be demanding. You can be unforgiving. Those characteristics would make you viewed as a total dick. But being a total dick doesn’t necessarily make you immoral.” Trump, on the other hand, represents the ultimate black swan event, threatening to pursue irrational policies that make the prediction game on Wall Street all but impossible. The likelihood of future government shutdowns, of Twitter feuds with China, and of nuclear missile scares, are without precedent—a paradox, of sorts, for Wall Street’s oddsmakers. He’s the high-beta president. Or, as my Wall Street friend more astutely put it, “The nature of his dickedness is worse than normal dickedness.”

[saidsimplesimon]

6. Spot on Vanity Fair and thank you

dalton for posting this.

[HopeAgain]

9. So if Trump would just shut up

and still do his tax cuts for the poor, divest in renewable resources and trash the environment, we'd be okay? I give zero shits about what this Wall Street Banker has to say.

[saidsimplesimon]

13. Wall Street Bankers

have lost all hope that this cretin in our WH will zip it up for the sake of their profits.

With caution, consider this old trope, "The enemy of my enemy is my friend."

“If he wasn’t such a serial liar, brutish, unprincipled, semiliterate, policy-inept person with no fundamental principles or morals, putting all that aside, he hasn’t been horrible,” he said. “But he’s a complete dick."

[HopeAgain]

19. Trump will eventually go away

But the income disparity continues to grow. The Democrats are not in it to fight Trump, there are in it to fix the social injustice perpetrated by these 1 Percenters for short-sighted and unmitigated greed. This enemy of my enemy is not my friend. I'm not interested in going back to the status quo.

So he hates Trump because he might not continue to rake in money for basically producing nothing of value? Sad!

[saidsimplesimon]

20. My intent was

to poke IT(DJ) into another twitter rage. "The Art of War"

[GusBob]

12. damnation that was brutal

I've read a lot of takedowns on Donnie, its seems as if writers were running out of descriptors

this one is gorgeous

[marylandblue]

15. You could drop this passage verbatim into The Onion

The headline could read, "Wall Street Falls on Fears that Trump is Worse than a Total Dick."

[Dawson Leery]

29. Trump will take a hit on a bear market as he is causing one right now.

[Johnny2X2X]

4. These swings aren't normal

I think this sell off has more to do with Kudlow showing they have no plan in regards to China on TV this morning.

They are truly winging it.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. This will be the first down year for the Dow since 2009.

Thank you, Trump.

[Johnny2X2X]

17. 2008!

The DOW rose 17% in 2009. Obama did not preside over a single year of a down market.

[onenote]

23. What was 2015?

http://money.cnn.com/2015/12/31/investing/stocks-market-end-of-2015/index.html

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. An off note.

[onenote]

22. The safest bet in the world is that most stock predictions on DU will be wrong

I don't know where the market will end up at the end of 2018. It may well be down for the year. But it won't be the first down year since 2009. The Dow Jones was down 2.2 percent in 2015. https://www.yahoo.com/news/dow-p-500-end-2015-losses-capping-worst-211552449.html

And just because the market is down after the first quarter doesn't mean it will be down for the year. Again, it might well be. But, to pick a recent year, the market on December 31, 2015 was at 17425. Three months later it was up by less than 300 points. A year later it was up by over 2000 points.

The one thing about the market I'm pretty certain about, suggestions that the market might drop 7000-9000 points in the next few weeks are absurd. See: https://www.democraticunderground.com/100210441143#post46

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. I am sad that you would denigrate a denizen of this board for having the temerity...

I am sad that you would denigrate a denizen of this board for having the temerity to offer an opinion:

The one thing about the market I'm pretty certain about, suggestions that the market might drop 7000-9000 points in the next few weeks are absurd. See: https://www.democraticunderground.com/100210441143#post46

-onenote

[onenote]

27. I am sad that a denizen of this board is so divorced from reality that they think a 7000-9000 drop

in the market over the next few weeks is a realistic possibility.

I prefer to live in the real world.

One where I don't make up facts (or ignore inconvenient ones -- like the fact that the market dropped by 2.2% in 2015).

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. I made an honest mistake

One where I don't make up facts (or ignore inconvenient ones -- like the fact that the market dropped by 2.2% in 2015

I made an honest mistake. There is no need to get vituperative with me. That being said I will be the bigger person, take the high road, and not respond in kind, for now.


I am the third poster here you attacked today.



Maybe you don't like us here.

[malaise]

30. -657.00

That is all

[DemocratSinceBirth]

31. -701

[onenote]

32. Not being vituperative with you

If I was harsh with anyone, it was it the poster (not you) that offered the patently absurd and suggestion that the market could see a 30-40 percent crash in the next few weeks.

As for my pointing out that there in fact was a down year during the Obama administration, I don't think that correcting the record constitutes an "attack" and I'm sorry if you took it as such.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

33. It really was an honest mistake.

You said nobody can predict the market and you are right but I would add that if a trade war really comes to fruition I would be willing to wager the markets will end on a down note and if China invokes the nuclear option and starts selling the US bonds it holds things will get very ugly.


China is a face culture. That's why despite coming out of their own revolution and being dirt poor they confronted us when we crossed the 53rd Parallel in Korea during the Korean Conflict. Trump thinks because he rolled Merv Griffin over an Atlantic City casino he can roll President Xi Jinping.

[onenote]

35. Understood, And I don't disagree with anything you just wrote.

I think its very possible that the market will end up 2018 at a lower point than it started. In part, even aside from the trade war, that was a real possibility because the market in the second half of 2017 seemed overheated and a cool down would be expected at some point. The decisions (if you can call them that) being made by Trump and his idiot cronies obviously are adding more volatility to the market. Where it all ends up is still a bit unpredictable, but given Trump's unwillingness to ever admit he's wrong about something, I'm not optimistic about things settling down for a while.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

37. China has a largely command economy and an authoritarian political system.

They are better prepared for the pain of a trade war than we are. Throw in the fact it's a face culture who prefers doom to dishonor and an ingrained resentment of the west and you have a recipe for disaster.

Does Trump even know he's dealing with a face culture ?

[onenote]

38. Arghhh - My reply title should have said I don't DISagree with you

My turn to make an honest mistake!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

40. There is no way Xi Jinping can blink. That is the only thing that can derail his presidency for life

Remember when one of our spy planes emergency landed in China after we unintentionally downed one of their jets that was buzzing them. They made us dance through hoops before they gave it back to us and when they gave it back to us it was in a million different pieces. The pilot should have emergency landed in Vietnam. They like us now and hate China which leads me to a point. We should have passed TPP. It was a great hedge against China. President Obama was right.

[beachbum bob]

41. well you know, instability can trigger a market crash, what is your prognosis IF china

announces Sunday night they will no longer purchase US debt and will sell off the trillions they own right now? Do you think the market will go up?

[LanternWaste]

39. And the safest prediction in the world is that most DU bets will be wrong.

And the safest prediction in the world is that most bets on DU will be wrong... despite my lack of fallacious anecdotal data to maintain the patina of validity in regards to my premise.


Six of one, half a dozen of the other...

[marylandblue]

18. Kudlow reassured the markets yesterday

that Trump would negotiate out of the trade war. Then Trump stabbed him in the back by announcing new Tarriffs. I don't think Kudlow will last long.

[onenote]

24. They're not that unusual.

The market routinely goes through periods of volatility. A drop of 300-400 points today looks unusual, but its in the 1-1.5 percent range. Back when the market was at around 17,000 (for example 2015) a drop of 170-250 points was in that range, and if you look at how market fluctuated at times during that year, you'll see plenty of one day swings in that range or even greater.

[yallerdawg]

14. Disrupting decades of economic and financial international stability?

[TheBlackAdder]

34. Sutekh the Destroyer?

[Angry Dragon]

16. Going down, down, down, down

[Demovictory9]

21. bad jobs numbers today

[wishstar]

36. This bear market is on steadily downward projectory to wipe out all gains of the past year

Only question in my mind is if we will see a catastrophic crash in near future or just a continuing steady downward tread for months longer as there are no signs of stability coming from this WH anytime soon.