Why we don't have three major parties, and why the GOP will survive ...

[eppur_se_muova]

It's the Electoral College. As long as a majority of the EC is required to elect a President, no third party can get properly established, unless it chooses to run only for offices below the Presidency & VP. That would take a tremendous amount of time, patience, and not a little bit of luck. Such things have happened in the past, when regional differences were more substantial than partisan, ideological ones. It just doesn't seem likely to succeed today. No faction is likely to split off from either of the two major parties because it would be an exit from Presidential-level politics. Furthermore, the division of power between two (and exactly two) parties in the House and Senate is so hidebound that third-party electees are forced to side with one of the established parties to have any role at all in committee appointments, etc.

Elimination of the Electoral College would not mean an immediate proliferation of third parties. But as long as the EC persists, third parties are unlikely to serve as anything but spoilers in future elections.

If the EC can't be eliminated altogether, perhaps it could at least be modified. If there are three candidates, should one of them have to win an outright majority ? True, this could mean a President elected by a minority of the population, but -- we have that now. The current rules are intended to force the Electors to come to an agreement, with the supporters of one candidate throwing their support to another -- but that will almost always disfavor the newest party, and effectively bully it out of the process.

In parliamentary politics, it's not really unusual for a party to split in two. Usually, one of the two factions fades in significance, and may eventually be lost to history, unless it chooses to merge or be absorbed by another faction. Imagine if the Tea Party had become a true Party, drawing out the most extreme right-wing Republicans and leaving the GOP a little smaller and weaker, but firmly in the hand of moderates who could choose to ally with the TPers, or not, and force the TPers to win elections, not just primaries. I strongly suspect the GOP would not have allowed itself to be run by its most extreme faction if a substantial number of the extremists had been agitating for a split anyway (and I suspect they would have).

I'm not aware of any organized effort to modify the EC, as opposed to eliminating it. Maybe it's better to just go for complete elimination, and not fool with half measures. But perhaps raising the topic may help emphasize that the problems caused by the EC are manifold and subtle, and most importantly, something that can be changed.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

1. If the states changed from a winner-take-all system to one

that allocated their votes proportionately, the electoral college system might be more fair (right now only Nebraska and Maine do this). I don't know if that would make third parties more viable, though.

[exboyfil]

12. Still unfair because they have the two extra electoral votes for each state

Wyoming has 188,000 voters for every electoral vote. California has 678,000 voters. 3.6x times difference. The Senate also magnifies the legislative weight of those Wyoming voters.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

13. That's true, but at least it would be an improvement.

[HopeAgain]

2. Repeal the 2nd Amendment and the Electoral College

in order to form a more perfect union.

[MichMary]

3. Have you checked out

the Constitutional requirements for repealing either? Not. Going. To. Happen.

[HopeAgain]

4. Not if we are convinced it won't.

I'm sure they told Fredrick Douglas and MLK the same thing.

[MichMary]

10. In order to get rid of either the 2A or the EC, the following would have to happen.

Altering the Constitution consists of proposing an amendment or amendments and subsequent ratification. Amendments may be proposed either by the Congress with a two-thirds vote in both the House of Representatives and the Senate or by a convention of states called for by two-thirds of the state legislatures.

That's 290 Representatives and 67 Senators, just to PROPOSE an amendment. Then:

To become part of the Constitution, an amendment must be ratified by either—as determined by Congress—the legislatures of three-quarters of the states or state ratifying conventions in three-quarters of the states

That's 33 states.

Since there is absolutely no vested interest in smaller states to give up their voice in electing Presidents *coughMichiganWisconsinPennsylvaniacough* they will never vote away their power.

There are gun owners in every single state, and there is no way that enough legislatures will vote away their Constitutional rights to repeal the 2A.

[HopeAgain]

11. It may not happen in ten years,

It may not happen in this generation. But if we refuse to advocate for it because it won't happen now, then we are assured it will never happen.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

5. Dream on.

More than 11,000 proposals have been made to amend the Constitution during the last 200 years. Only 27 have succeeded. It's not going to happen.

The Equal Rights Amendment, making equal rights for women a Constitutional right, was first introduced in 1921. It still hasn't been ratified by enough states. It should have been a no-brainer but the wingers in the remaining states keep blocking it.

[HopeAgain]

6. I'll dream on

Because that's what changes things.

[vi5]

7. The GOP will survive, despite this current insanity...

....because

1) Our side insists on playing by the rules no matter how outdated, obsolete, and irrelevant to the GOP those rules may be.

2) Our positions are not as easily condensed into snappy little slogans like "Taxes are bad!" or "Pro-Life" or "Pro-Second Amendment!!"

3) Even in cases where those positions are easily condensed and backed up by facts, we don't see to have all that many people on our side or within positions of power in the party who seem able or willing to do that.

So yeah, some of that is out of our hands, and some of it isn't. But until we start getting better control over the stuff that is, the GOP is going to be here to stay and will likely still run the show a lot of the time.

[mr_lebowski]

14. Sadly ... THIS

[yallerdawg]

8. Americans seem to have a 'winner-take-all' mentality.

And we view EVERYTHING in stark black and white.

The Electoral College process has been tampered with at the State level. That's where we could fix it.

Proportional allocation of Electors at the State level, rather than 'winner-take-all.'

Sometimes we learn things the hard way.

[mr_lebowski]

15. I think I've seen studies showing this may well not help Democrats ...

And it'd be especially crappy if more and more states started doing this of their own accord given that GOP has control of many more state legislatures/governorships. They'd take orders from the Kocks/Mercers of the world, which would tell each state what to do/whether the numbers support the state switching to proportional, and ONLY the states where it would help the GOP win POTUS ... would switch.

[marylandblue]

9. There is the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact

It's a movement for states to assign their EC votes to the national popular vote winner. The compact takes effect when states representing 270 EC votes approve it. So far, 164 votes worth have approved, all blue.

No need for a constitutional amendment. Just vote blue. #BlueWave