Why Trump's trade policies will fail
There are two main reason that Trump's trade initiatives will fail: the first is that he is a poor national leader. the second is that he is approaching the issue with a sledge hammer, instead of a gradual reasoned approach that would foster negotiations.
The first thing that Trump would need to do is prepare the populace for the initial sacrifices that would be needed to be endured. This would involve a substantial period of time in an information campaign. An example of this would be the infamous lead up to the Iraq war by the Bush administration. In fact, what he has done is embark on the strategy against China out of the blue without any national discussion . The President has proven that he is incapable of staying on message for any length time, or making any well reasoned argument on complex issues like trade. The only success he has had in affecting some parts of society is through fear and resentment. It would be difficult for him to make an effective argument because the initiative is contradictory to the rest of his economic policies. Since midway through the Obama administration, the economy has been strong in creating jobs. The problem has been in low wages and a weak middle class. Large trade deficits with countries like China have facilitated the downward pressure on wages. The Presidents economic policies have been to create more wealth at the expense of wages, giving big tax cuts to the people at the top with most of the newly created wealth going to those people at the top. The President never even publicly recognizes that there is a wage problem.
Trump has taken on this issue this same way that he does with most, on the attack and with bluster. This has resulted with the predictable reaction from the Chinese responding in kind.
The result of all of this will be that the Chinese will not genuinely negotiate, and will just wait it out until Trump is no longer in office.
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