Spoke to someone from Arizona this evening: Hiral Tipirneni will probably lose tomorrow.....

[brooklynite]

...but will WAY outperform Trump's margin. She'll likely also be the candidate in November which will help turn out votes for the rest of the ticket.

[triron]

1. What basis did they have for saying that??

[brooklynite]

4. Without naming names, this is from an elected official in AZ

FWIW, AZ-8 is an R+13 "Safe R" district, and only one poll has had her in front.

[triron]

9. The demographics are grim.

[DeminPennswoods]

12. Old PA-18 was more R than that

and similar demographics. Just sayin'...

[Dawson Leery]

2. If we lose by 5, it will be a good night.

[brooklynite]

5. I was told to expect 7-8. but I agree...

[notdarkyet]

3. Shes a great candidate. Debbie is an Alec gofer, shill, parrot. Copies right from their stuff

She is very connected to them. Hirai is going to ldo good.

[Gothmog]

6. I will not be disappointed if she loses

This race was a long shot.

[rufus dog]

7. Perspective needed on this one

This a District I grew up in. Actually, I believe AZ had six districts when I was kid, so I grew up in the area that is now District 8.

1. Home of Sun City - Huge retirement community that was always under funding schooling, basically fuck off to any other generations.
2. Rural areas being turned into new suburbs. The older areas are filled with educationally challenged people. The facebook posts from the people I went to school with are among the worst of the worst. They hate blacks, mexicans, gays, and all liberals and especially us Californians.

So turning this one blue is a long shot. A candidate would have to sweep the newer areas (a HUGE task based upon who moves into the NW burbs of Phx) by a huge margin to offset the Sun City and long term residents vote.

[Exotica]

8. the district is nearly 90 percent white, almost half the population is 55 or older

41% registered Rethugs v 24% Dems

http://apps.azsos.gov/election/voterreg/2017-01-01.pdf

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/4/23/17263138/arizona-special-election-live-results-lesko-tipirneni


All that said, I still have hope!!

I hope Dem turnout is HUGE

Blue Wave in the desert

[triron]

10. The early vote statisitcs (R vs D) are not looking good.

[Exotica]

11. hopefully we turn out in massive numbers

that district consistently elected the criminal scum Arpaio sheriff, so that's another bad omen.

[brooklynite]

13. Update: 6-point margin; better than anticipated.