I believe Sanders will win the nomination in 2020

[NewJeffCT]

I did not support Sanders in 2016, but neither did I support Hillary until she had the nomination basically sewn up. Same with 2008 - I did not support anybody in the primaries, either. And, same with 2004 - I did not support Dean, Kerry, Edwards or anybody else.

However, I think Sanders is the heavy favorite for 2020 if he runs.

1) He will consistently get 40-45% of the vote in the primaries. He's only lost a small amount of Dems since 2016.

2) The remaining potential Democrats will split the 55-60% of the remaining vote - Harris, Booker, Merkley, Murphy, Cuomo, Gillebrand, Klobucher, etc. That will leave Sanders with 40-45% of the proportional delegates - if a state has 100 delegates, Sanders gets 40 and the runners up get 10-15 delegates apiece. In 2016, it was Clinton v Sanders from pretty early on - so, Clinton got a large majority of that remaining vote that Sanders did not get.

3) Unless Warren runs, there is nobody that will peel away votes from Sanders. Maybe Merkley can do that, but he doesn't have the name recognition of Warren.

4) Open and Semi-Open primaries and caucuses will allow Republicans and conservative independents to cross over to vote for the person they perceive to be weaker overall in the GE.

Nobody thought Trump was a threat in 2016, either.

Edited to add: Please note, I do not support Sanders for 2020, but I see it as inevitable that he wins in 2020 unless things change drastically for Democrats.

[snowybirdie]

1. And I believe

I see elephants flying outside my window

[Zoonart]

4. Right?

Not. A. Democrat.

[NewJeffCT]

13. I don't see a counter argument there

My argument is mainly that he's going to get the same voters in 2020 while there is no Clinton-like heavyweight to get all the other votes - those "other" votes will be split between 5, 6 or more other candidates.

[Wwcd]

34. No heavyweight ..YET!

Bye bernie

[emulatorloo]

65. I supported Bernie for President in 2016, but am unlikely to do so this time out.

I no longer believe he is presidential material. Too many gaffes, can’t come up with concrete plans to implement his proposals, cannot take criticism or hard questions without getting defensive.

He is an excellent Senator though and is great there.

[NewJeffCT]

73. your description sounds almost Trumpian

" Too many gaffes, can’t come up with concrete plans to implement his proposals, cannot take criticism or hard questions without getting defensive. "

At least he doesn't tweet like Trump and his politics are much better.

[Demsrule86]

190. I voted for Sen. Sanders in the primary last time and he won't get my vote in a 20 primary...none of

my family who voted for him in 16 will vote for him. His ages is a factor...he would be a Democratic Bob Dole.

[emulatorloo]

221. Nonsense, Hes the complete opposite of Trump

[Cary]

89. Why do you qualify with you weren't a Sanders supporter?

I find that rather odd.

[PatSeg]

91. The Democrats have a lot great talent right now

Last edited Tue Apr 24, 2018, 03:07 PM - Edit history (1)

Someone who isn't known all that well, would end being the nominee. Who heard of Governor Bill Clinton before he ran for president? Or Barack Obama? Or Jimmy Carter?

I think the party and the country are ready for some fresh faces and new blood. As for Bernie Sanders, I always liked him as a congressman and a senator, but I didn't find him presidential.

Edit for grammar and typo

[NewJeffCT]

160. he may pull a Mario Cuomo

Wasn't he the 800 pound gorilla for Democrats in 1988 or 1992 before deciding not to run?

The remaining Democrats were called the 7 Dwarfs.

[PatSeg]

166. I don't remember that now

I wasn't very political in 1988 and just started to get interested in politics in 1992. I had to look it up on Wikipedia. He apparently kept a lot of people guessing until the last minute in 1991.

[leftynyc]

107. No way are Democrats

going to let him USE our party again for his own purposes. He can run as an independent.

[Thekaspervote]

119. Boy I hope you are right!

[leftynyc]

120. I would leave the party

if they allow themselves to be used like that again. And I wouldn't be alone - an entire family of loyal democrats would do the same. Sick of Bernie and his crap of not joining the party he does nothing but use and then abuse.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

117. Somebody already did

He's not a Democrat

[brooklynite]

191. Why do you assume that Sanders voters will all remain with him?

One key point is that there were no significant alternatives to Clinton; there will likely be a robust field in 2020.

[Cha]

38. Good one,

birdie lol

[IronLionZion]

118. They said the same thing about Trump

how did that work out?

[Gothmog]

2. You do realize that Sanders condone the booing of Congressman John Lewis at the national convention

I was a delegate to the national convention. My whip told me about the planned stunt by Sanders delegates 15 or 20 minutes before the event. Evidently Sanders was asked to stop this stunt and refused.

In my opinion, Sanders is not likely to run in 2020 and if Sanders does run, he will not be the nominee. Sanders will have to release his tax returns to get onto the ballot in a number of blue states due to proposed and pending ballot access laws. Sanders would also face backlash due to stunts like the attack on Congressman John Lewis at the National Convention (the video of this stunt and the fact that Sanders refused to stop this stunt will not play well with the base of the party). The Our Revolution idiots and Nina Turner are generating a great deal of anger on the part of real Democrats towards Sanders and his proposals. There are a large number of Democrats who blame sanders for Trump's victory. You can count me in that group who blame sanders for trump's victory. In addition, a large majority of Democrats live in the real world and will not accept sanders unrealistic proposals. I seriously doubt that sanders runs and I am sure that he will not get the nomination.

[ehrnst]

5. +1000 (nt)

[Cha]

8. Thank you Thank you Thank you, Goth!

He's too divisive.. people don't forget that.

[Wwcd]

35. He's one of the most hated politicians. 65million ppl aren't wrong.

He'll never ever gain the support of those 65 million Democrats that today believe he intentionally screwed over, for , in his own words, "Money & Media".

Truth of that is no clearer than today with his seeking to become a MEDIA mogul.
Well speaking of media oligarchs....wadda ya know!

[Gothmog]

109. Count me as one of the Democrats who will never support Sanders

Sanders has a small base of white male supporters and that is not sufficient to get the nomination

[Fresh_Start]

124. Count me as a recent independent turned democrat who ill never support Sanders

after his lies and actions in 2016.

I've also written to the DNC and told them if he allow him to run as a democrat again...I will never send them or any democratic group another cent.

I've added Our Revolution to the list which includes Right to Life...which means if I see a candidate with that on their website...I look for another candidate.

[Wwcd]

139. There are many who see bernie & his entourage exactly as you do.

I'd sure like to know who's funding The Sanders Institute.
No one will ever know since it was set up in a way that keeps that info private.
Figures, huh!

With Jane as the head of the SI, & Fellows like Nina & Ben Jealous on the lead team, well it tells me that there probably never really was an "Our Revolution". Not for the purpose they claimed anyway.
"We see them"

[Wwcd]

134. He can go ahead & run in 2020 but he'll get his *** kicked again by a girl.

Rape is not a fantasy, mr sanders.
Women loudly voted him out of the Women's Convention speaker spot, and completely out the door as I recall. He went off to do promo work in Puerto Rico or something.
Nice try Nina. We're not fools.

He will be held to stronger vetting this time around.
That's why this is all self promotion for when he becomes a media empire oligarch...or something on that order..
I doubt he really wants to be Pres since he pretty much told us all why he was actually in the 2016 Dem race.
"MONEY & MEDIA". He said it .

[NewJeffCT]

10. Sanders got little of the non white vote in the primaries in 2016

and, it will get him more crossover Republicans because of that.

[Cha]

15. Ha!

[Gothmog]

21. So you are counting on limbaugh's operation chaos II?

The gop will vote for the weakest candidate in the democratic primary. Limbaugh tried this in 2008 and tried to disrupt the Democratic primary procedd. Look up Operation Chaos. Luckily many primaries are closed

[NewJeffCT]

29. a lot of Republicans crossed over in 2016 as well

I knew Republicans in Connecticut that registered as Democrats 6 months before the primary just to vote against Hillary because they hated her so much. CT has closed primaries and if you want to switch parties, you need to do it several months ahead of time.

I'm sure I was not unique

[MrsCoffee]

22. Crossover Republicans don't win elections for Democrats.

At least not without the support of the base of the party. If he can't appeal to the black voters who make up the Democratic base, he won't win shit.

[Gothmog]

110. There is no way that the base of the party will be supporting sanders

[NewJeffCT]

168. he got somewhere around 45% of the vote in 2016

Even if he only get 40% of the vote in 2020, if there are 5, 6,7 or more Democrats dividing up the remaining 60% he will win handily.

He will likely win Iowa and New Hampshire handily and then it would be Bernie in South Carolina against those other Democrats. if he gets "only" 35% of the vote and Harris and Booker get 20% each, Chris Murphy and Julian Castro get 10% each and one or two others get the remaining 5%, guess what, Sanders wins South Carolina and has all the momentum going into Super Tuesday.

[MrsCoffee]

173. He got that 45% thanks to a little help from Russia and not getting attacked by the media or GOP.

So there goes that argument. Unless we are rooting for Russia to help him again. His unwillingness to show his tax returns, his no vote on sanctions and his history on guns pretty much put him in the fool me once category.

[NewJeffCT]

177. If you think Russia won't try to help him again

I think you're being naive. His not showing his tax returns and his history on guns were there in 2016 as well.

[MrsCoffee]

179. He said his wife did his taxes and they had been busy, but he would release them asap....

And his supporters bought that. They didn't know at the time that he would renege.

Of course I think Russia will try to help him again, but I don't expect them to be 1/100th as successful as 2016.

[lunamagica]

136. So you are saying he can win the nomination without the support of the Democratic base.

[NewJeffCT]

164. Yes

if there are 5, 6 or 7 Democrats dividing up the rest of the vote and Bernie keeps his current base.

It's a recipe for disaster in the general, but he can win it that way

[Garrett78]

198. There won't be that many candidates for long.

And there will likely be many 2016 anti-Clinton Sanders voters who vote for a different person in 2020.

Sanders may start strong and build some momentum, but other Democrats will overtake him and I suspect he'll drop out earlier this time around. The 2016 primary was essentially over by the 2nd week of March, but he stuck around because there were only 2 candidates.

[Gothmog]

163. Sanders will likely get a great deal less this cycle due to the John Lewis stunt

I am amazed that the Sanders delegates were really very proud of this stunt. These delegates do not care is they run off future voters who Sanders would need.

[mcar]

12. Sanders would have to release his tax returns

become a Democrat, explain the actions taken against Rep Lewis and other Democrats and start raising money for Democrats instead of the divisive Our Revolution.

[Gothmog]

16. I doubt that sanders will release his tax returns

[mcar]

17. I don't think he will either

[lunamagica]

137. I don't either. I always woner what is he hiding

[NewJeffCT]

19. I've only seen Maryland actually pass a law

that requires release of tax returns. Anybody else?

[Gothmog]

30. New Jersey and California

Both bills were vetoed by the then current governors. New Jersey has a new governor and California will have a new governor in 2019

[NewJeffCT]

44. Jerry Brown vetoed?

what did he say when he vetoed?

[Gothmog]

115. Slippery slope

I disagree with Brown on this https://www.politico.com/story/2017/10/16/jerry-brown-trump-tax-returns-bill-243799

The veto, in which Brown cautioned against setting a “’slippery slope' precedent,” marked a setback for Democrats and open-government advocates trying to uncover Trump’s tax returns at the state level.

“While I recognize the political attractiveness – even the merits – of getting President Trump’s tax returns, I worry about the political perils of individual states seeking to regulate presidential elections in this manner,” Brown wrote in a veto message. “First, it may not be constitutional. Second, it sets a ‘slippery slope’ precedent. Today we require tax returns, but what would be next? Five years of health records? A certified birth certificate? High school report cards? And will these requirements vary depending on which political party is in power?”

[Cha]

200. That's disappointing.. They're tax returns.. everyone

running should produce all of them to see if they're hiding anything that might be important.. More important than high school bullshit. That doesn't even make sense to me.

[Gothmog]

216. I agree

The accepted practiceas been to release tax reurns

[mcar]

103. Regardless of states passing laws requiring the release

I believe it will be quite difficult for any candidate on the D side to successfully secure a nomination without that kind of transparency.

[former9thward]

209. Those laws will be ruled unconstitutional.

It will take a declared candidate for 2020 to have legal standing to sue. They will be quickly overturned. States can't impose more restrictive limits on candidates than are in the Constitution. Federal law is supreme over state law.

[Wwcd]

42. He can't release them.

It'd reveal ..stuff we voters have no business knowing.

[Blue_true]

152. They will show that he is very rich.

What is that word? OH MY, AN OLIGARCH!!!!!! Run for the hills, save yourselves!

[comradebillyboy]

18. Although I agree with your sentiments about Sanders

I expect him to run and be just as divisive as he was in 2016.

[Gothmog]

47. Sanders may run and if he runs sanders will be very divisive

I just believe that ssnders has no chance of being the nominee.

It will be interesting to see how many blue states adopt ballot access laws before the 2020 primaries

[comradebillyboy]

83. I certainly hope you are correct. Let's see who actually runs.

A large field of candidate definitely tilts things in Sanders favor. Of course if he is seen as front runner he may get the level scrutiny he deserves. He was given complete softball coverage by the news media in the last election and has gotten almost no close examination since.

[Blue_true]

155. I am concern Sanders runs.

Sees he has no way of winning after South Carolina, then starts making allusions of running Indy in November instead of bringing his people down by supporting the most likely nominee of the party.

[Blue_true]

154. That is what I fear also. nt

[lunamagica]

133. I agree with everything ecxept for the part where you said he isn't running

he is running. In fact, he never stopped running.

[Blue_true]

150. As a likely front runner, Sanders will get put under a spotlight.

Everything that he ate for breakfast for the last 40 years will be examined. I don't think Sanders stand up to the scrutiny.

[bettyellen]

158. This-he was never vetted and damn well will be this time. He will implode.

[NewJeffCT]

170. I hope you are correct

I never considered Bernie viable in a general election - I figured he'd go the way of McGovern, Mondale and Dukakis once his skeletons came out of the closet.

But, i see things like Democrats negotiating with Team Sanders to lessen the power of superdelegates and think they're bending to the Bernie wing of the party.

[Demsrule86]

192. I will never forget that. +1000

[Crutchez_CuiBono]

3. Tried and true loser unfortunately.

None of it is going to matter if they do nothing about the voting system and the irregularities. Most likely that's why he didn't win the primary, and Hillary the general.
Looking back at all the skoffing about free school for kids, healthcare for all, and the gop line that there "just wasn't money in the budget for it"...then handing free tax (tuition money/insurance $) to rich folks who didn't need it. Hugely disappointing.

[comradebillyboy]

25. Sanders didn't lose because of voting irregularities though!

Do you have any actual evidence of irregularities or are you just slandering the party? He lost by millions of votes. The primaries were not rigged.

[Crutchez_CuiBono]

37. Sir

We just don't know though do we? Certainly if I was a gop who stood in line for a freebie tax cut, when someone was touting free school or healthcare (the horrors), Bernie would've been the primary target, then Hillary. Far as I'm concerned, they changed the voting tallies and in places like Penn. and Detroit, votes weren't even counted etc.
What exactly, based on the crooks you've seen in the dt admin, leads you to believe the sanctity of the vote count is out of range for people who just think of themselves? The voting boxes work on software. Software updates have been corrupting machines and computers since they have gone main stream. I think we're all whistling past the graveyard to just assume they "stopped at voter rolls" etc. Wait till next time. dt goons will be patrolling the polls where people vote. Just for starters. You trust your County and Village and Township gop admin's so much that they wouldn't do something awful? It's literally a game now to see who can out do the last bad actor and get cheers from the right for doing so.
There's about 18-20 hardcore repubs in this land, and they know they're dosappearing. BUT, they have money. The one thing everyone needs. After 18 months of dt....are you truly going to draw the line at the ELECTRONIC voting booths? Seems you, like me, are merely speculating, bc neither of us know anything. In the past, in determining someones intent, I watch their past behaviors. If someone tells you who they are..believe them.
This daily circus belies the real issue...the voting system has been rigged since 2000. Once Gore was rubbed out, and there wasn't mass protests in the street, the gop determined they could get away with it...and they have. The news cycle is just plausible deniability. of course...of of the above is jus my opinion. Cheers.

[comradebillyboy]

41. Who is this 'they' that changed voting tallies?

Where is the evidence?

[Crutchez_CuiBono]

210. Not a Democrat.

[NewJeffCT]

48. Detroit votes weren't counted?

Sanders won the Michigan primary and Clinton won heavily among African Americans, so if Detroit votes weren't counted, it would have meant Clinton would likely have won the primary.

[Crutchez_CuiBono]

211. see Wayne and Warren

[Wwcd]

45. Turns out, the only campaign that was 'rigged' was Clinton's.

We see ya bernie!

[Orsino]

6. He tried being a Democrat, and found it not to his taste.

I don't think our party ought to nominate a non-Democrat, nor admit this one as a Democratic candidate.

[GoCubsGo]

40. I don't think the Democrats are going to make the same mistake again.

If they do, they deserve what is coming. Use us once, shame on you. Use us twice, shame on us. I assume they've learned their lesson about allowing non-Democrats to use the party apparatus to serve their own ambitions at the expense of the Democrats.

[Orsino]

46. I don't object to anyone becoming a Democrat, perhaps not even to leap into the presidency...

...but to take it back immediately says that that candidate is never really going to be a Democrat, and that we therefore ought not to waste time and money supporting him.

[GoCubsGo]

75. Yep. That is a huge part my problem with it, as well.

[Chemisse]

84. That bothered me too.

He only switched to Dem to run on the ticket, and couldn't get out fast enough afterward.

[Orsino]

88. I can understand his not wanting to be doomed to phone-banking for the party.

It's an ugly job, in a nation that refuses public financing of elections. But it's part of the job of being a Democratic senator today, and Sanders declined it.

[Cuthbert Allgood]

57. So you want him to run as a 3rd Party?

You wanted him to run as a 3rd Party in 2016? That's just nonsense.

And I suppose you wish he'd stop caucusing with the Dems in the Senate. I mean, he's not a Dem, so fuck him, right?

[Orsino]

59. He was obviously unsure about his commitment to our party, and ought to run elsewhere,

I happily supported him in the primary, but he has left us behind now. I don't particularly want him to run for president again anywhere.

[Cuthbert Allgood]

68. He was sure enough to not run as a 3rd Party to make things worse.

He was sure enough to caucus with us ALL THE TIME.

Just because he thinks there needs to be changes in the party doesn't make him wrong.

I don't think I want him to run again either. But I'd support him if he did. And I really hope he doesn't run as a 3rd party. Which I'm almost certain he won't. It's a good thing DU doesn't set party rules because making him run as 3rd party would be a huge mistake.

[Orsino]

85. I will support our party's nominee.

I don't think there's much chance of that turning out to be Sanders, but if he could somehow find accord with enough peers and delegates, and say why he really, really wants to be a Democrat this time, could be.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

159. Obviously... I'll never understand this "cut your nose off to spite your face" mentality.

Were Bernie to run third party - and I would never support that and couldn't vote for him if he did - that would GUARAN-FUCKING-TEE Dolt 45's second term.

But, some here don't seem to care if that's the result... what's important is we lock Bernie out and bar the door. Bernie and his supporters be damned!! SMH

[marble falls]

7. While both Hillary and Bernie are critical to 2018 and 2020, we need younger candidates to run.

Adam Schiff, Maxine Waters, the Castro brothers..... there are a host of good candidates.

[Exotica]

9. "we need younger candidates to run" .... Maxine Waters would be 90 at the and of her terms

Absolutely agree about younger candidates, btw.

I also SO hope Bernie does not run, it will be a shitshow of divisiveness from every level,every angle.

[marble falls]

20. Damn. I've heard her on Rachel and other shows and I knew she was a relatively new Rep.....

I honestly felt she was maybe in her fifties. Still like what she has to say. But we need younger candidates to represent more of who we are as Americans. I think legislators who look like me have screwed the nation up. We need more younger folks in government, more women (a lot more women) and a lot more diversity culturally and ethnically.

My criteria is: the more you look like me and sound like business as usual, the less likely it is I will vote for you.

[Exotica]

31. "she was a relatively new Rep" ....she has been in Congress for 28 years

5 years longer than I have been alive, lol.

[Chemisse]

93. I am VERY worried about a Bernie run for that exact reason (divisiveness).

If he runs, our chances of winning the presidency drop significantly, just as a consequence of Dem in-fights.

A fresh pool of candidates that nobody is married to from the start would be the healthiest thing for the party's chances.

[Exotica]

116. I am most worried that there is a total bloodbath in the primaries

Brutal and full of back and forth, and then a true Democratic candidate (not Sanders) is not picked until after multiple ballots with superdelegates shading it to say Kamala Harris or Biden (just speculation on those 2, it could be anyone).

Then Bernie and his supporters freak out (especially if it is a Biden pick who is pushed through as a cimpromise candidate) and he (Bernie) runs as an indy, thus giving us 4 more years of Trump (if Mueller doesnt bring enough for the Rehugs in the Senate to convict) or 4 years at least of Pence or another replacement like Kasich.

That scenario will carry over into 2024, as the Bernie people will totally and permanently Demexit in huge numbers. It could even cause a breakup of the Party, if things truly go pear-shaped. It also will mean a probable 7-2 or even 8-1 (Sotomayor's diabetes is getting horrid ) uktra right SCOTUS for a decade or more.

Bernie HAS to see this. I hope for the good of the nation he chooses to not run. I also am not holding my breath on that.

[RandomAccess]

214. Bernie would never run as an Independent --

UNLESS both Trump and Pence were out of office.

[NewJeffCT]

23. I would strongly prefer

a younger candidate myself, but I'm just looking at the reality.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

24. Would LOVE for Maxine to run in 2020... and she's almost 80 now...

by your standard, Bernie is practically a spring chicken!!

Seriously, though, I don't get the ageism around here. If a candidate has physical energy and mental capacity - not to mention the progressive VISION and IDEAS - to run an effective presidential campaign, I'm all for their running.

[tparrett62]

11. Not to be ageist

But Bernie is going to be 78 in 2020; running in the general is grueling for someone 20 years younger. I would be stunned if he even tries for the primary. We need younger and more diverse blood- as an old white guy, I'm tired of seeing old white guys running things.

[Mike Nelson]

14. I do think...

...he's planning to run, but as an independent - so, Bernie will win a Party's "nomination". I do think Elizabeth Warren will consider a run, although she may not be as far ahead in thinking about it as Bernie. However, I think the Democrats will go for someone different. By that I don't mean younger in chronological age... just newer. I think most of the other names you mentioned qualify.

[jrthin]

26. I sincerely hope not. I cannot take another 4 years of tRUMP. nt

[Atman]

27. God help us all.

And I'm an atheist!

[Tipperary]

28. Lol.

[Lil Missy]

32. What nomination?? The Bernie Party?

[bluedigger]

33. I think he would win if he did run, but I don't think he will.

I expect it will be a woman - Warren, Klobucher, Gillebrand, or someone else. I think Bernie will pass the torch, and if it's to a woman, she will be the favorite in the primary and the general.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

36. I'd be fine with that too, if that's what Bernie decides to do.

[Demsrule86]

193. We would lose the general. So I am not OK with it.

Bernie willnhot appeal to the center...lots of votes in the center. And Bloomberg will run if he is the candidate...he has said so.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

199. Huh?? Why would we lose the general? Perhaps, you were confused by my response above...

I said I'd be fine with Bernie's decision when the person I responded to said they DIDN'T think he will run, but, rather would "pass the torch" to someone younger. I'm saying I could live with that, though, I would be disappointed, as Bernie would give us the GREATEST chance of WINNING the general IMHO... that's not to say we would lose with somebody else.

[Demsrule86]

201. Sorry...I am just so afraid if he runs...we lose.

We can't lose in 20 we just can't.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

203. 2020 is make or break, that's for sure! Can't imagine what this country - & the world! - will look

like if Dolt 45 gets another 4 years. I think, however, you're misunderestimating (as G.W. Shrub would say) Bernie's appeal to the populace... there are very good reasons why Bernie is so popular.

In any case, isn't that what primaries are for? Why so afraid of democracy? It's called the "Democratic Party" for a reason.

[Historic NY]

39. More likely to see a unicorn....

or a leprechaun.

[Doodley]

43. IMO, if Sanders wins the nominations, we will get four more years of Trump.

[NewJeffCT]

51. I tend to agree

I think he has too many skeletons in his closet, and things that barely registered with Trump's with his daily scandals will be big issues for Sanders (tax returns for one) because that's just how the media works.

[Doodley]

71. Agreed. And Trump's campaign would be devastating.

He will brand Sanders a socialist and Trump likes to mix socialism and communism together.

He will portray Sanders as naive and idealistic who doesn't understand the economy, that Trump has made great.

He will say Sanders will lose tens of millions of jobs by giving everything people they want for free and say how that hasn't worked out in communist countries.

Trump would win a landslide. That said, I am in favor of most of what Sanders proposes, but to be realistic, he would be roasted by Trump.

[Wwcd]

62. Yup. Thanks for nothing.

Well he'll always have his soon to be created media empire to fall back on!

[Gothmog]

111. Agreed

The GOP has a ton of oppo research on Sanders that is very damning.

[NCTraveler]

49. Fully agree.

I actually think he can get well under 40% in the early states and still build a large lead.

[revmclaren]

50. If all my family and friends are a gauge

then not a chance.



Only 2018 - 2020

[Cha]

52. Just NO.

[Eyeball_Kid]

53. As one who has decades more years behind me than ahead of me,

I want to see a younger leadership movement take control of the Democratic Party. No matter how popular Sanders is right now, he's the wrong pick for a nomination in 2020. Along with a number of people at the top of the Dem hierarchy, he needs to slip into "elder statesman" status and leave the leadership positions to those a generation or so younger. The Dem Party has to appeal to younger voters to maintain their vitality and sense of purpose.

[NewJeffCT]

54. I agree - Democrats do best

when they have a young, charismatic nominee

JFK
Bill Clinton
Barack Obama

[YessirAtsaFact]

55. Im sick of threads about Sanders and Hilary

[NewJeffCT]

58. This is more about Sanders in 2020

not Sanders v Clinton in 2016 other than explaining that there is no Clinton in the race for 2020 to get almost all the alternative to Sanders vote.

[YessirAtsaFact]

63. Is he a Democrat?

[Wwcd]

72. Well, no Clinton YET!

[betsuni]

70. I'm sick of people thinking any mention of Bernie Sanders has anything to do with

Hillary Clinton.

[Wwcd]

74. Keep that divide going!!

Keep that base!!

[YessirAtsaFact]

82. Yep, my point exactly

[IluvPitties]

56. Hopefully not. We need new blood and new ideas.

[NewJeffCT]

66. I agree

as I posted above, Democrats do best with young, charismatic candidates

[LexVegas]

60. Maybe if minorities don't vote. nt

[NewJeffCT]

67. If the minority vote

is divided between Harris, Booker and Castro?

[DrDan]

61. no way

[awesomerwb1]

64. Sanders is about Sanders

Some of his "disciples" close to his inner circle are a little cringeworthy.

Bernie talks a great game sometimes, but in looking at his policy accomplishments I am very surprised he keeps winning with so little.
I hope he's humble and smart enough to know when to call it quits when it comes to running for President. I hope becoming President has not become an obsession that will jeopardize our chances in 2020.

[NewJeffCT]

95. agree

but, he generated a lot of excitement in 2016 with no accomplishments and a lot of grand ideas

[democratisphere]

69. Bernie, a Democrat of his own convenience, is largely respondsible for the Democratic loss

In 2016. If Democrats want a repeat performance of 2016, stay the course. I believe the majority of voting Democrats want someone and something totally different; a dynamic realistic winner!

[Wwcd]

77. They fking hate him. And that's up to him to woo them over.

Good luck with that bernie.

I don't think he gives a shit about being Pres.
He's building followers to promote his big media empire.
Wonder what he'll call it?

[democratisphere]

98. Agreed.

How about the "All About Me TV Network".

[Wwcd]

132. "BT" It'd be a familiar model anyway.

[StevieM]

86. I am not a fan of Bernie, but I think James Comey had a lot more to do with our defeat.

He made that race un-winnable for HRC.

[democratisphere]

99. Disagree. Few thousand more votes in this state and that state would have resulted

in an HRC win.

[Wwcd]

102. Agree. And there were plenty of hands stirring the pot for the Trump to succeed.

Everyone who bouggt into the lies & repeated the slander against Clinton & the Dem Party, are the ines still profitting from it today.

"MONEY & MEDIA" That's why any of them were all on the same page. They really didn't give 2 shits about the country at the moment, they saw an opportunity for self enrichment & THAT is what it was all about.
From the lowest on social media to MSM, Trump Org & every candidate that repeated the pre-set lies of HRC & the Dems.
They all got on the same bus because it was a shit at self promotion & self enrichment & it was all about "MONEY & MEDIA".
The well being & future of the USA was an afterthought.

[lunamagica]

146. I think it was a combination of diferent factors. Sanders, Comey Assange, Russia, voter supression

It was a perfect storm.

[Blue_true]

161. I disagree.

Bernie caused a bloodbath at our party convention, then essentially went on vacation. The help he gave to Hillary was piddling, at best. If he had talked a few more thousand of his followers down and actively embraced Hillary, she would be President and we would not have a shitshow.

[Chemisse]

167. There were so many things that weakened her, but Comey made the knock-out blow. n/t

[StevieM]

181. I see what you are saying, but Comey had already taken two devastating shots at her before October.

First when he placed her under investigation and then publicized it. And then with his ridiculous press conference in July.

If you take Comey and the FBI investigation out of the equation the entire election would have gone extremely differently.

[nancy1942]

76. I disagree.

[mshasta]

78. no

we need new ideas, let the future generation take over, Bernie please stay as a senator .

[BoneyardDem]

79. So what party's nomination will he win?

[DFW]

80. I give both Sanders an equal chance for the Democraic nomination in 2020

Last edited Tue Apr 24, 2018, 11:47 AM - Edit history (1)

Bernie and Sarah H.

[NewJeffCT]

100. I have not detected a huge dropoff

in support for Bernie Sanders. I have also not seen any rules changes that will prevent him from running as a Democrat or from winning a primary anywhere except Maryland.

Unless one (or maybe two) candidates rise up to be the heavyweight to counter Sanders, I don't see anybody else with his base of support.

I don't see Clinton running again, so Joe Biden and Michelle Obama are really the only ones left that could unify support among Democrats that don't support Sanders.

[DFW]

106. It is two years before the primary season is in full swing

No serious new contender in their right mind is making noises yet. I would be wary of supporting one who did.

I give a 98% chance of our nominee in 2020 of being "none of the above" out of your roster.

[NewJeffCT]

108. interesting

you mean the names I listed above - Harris, Booker, Merkley, Murphy, Cuomo, Gillebrand, Klobucher, etc ?

I was kind of hoping for a Harris/Castro in 2020 or Booker/Castro.

[DFW]

126. I was referring to your post immediately above this one, not the OP, but while we're at it

I give zero chance to anyone who was on the "get Franken" bandwagon. Even Tammy Baldwin is feeling a few residual effects of that in her re-election effort. Subtle hints are being dropped, I hear (politically engaged B-I-L from Madison), although there is no question of denying her support in the general election.

The only one of the others I have had the pleasure with is Amy Klobuchar, and while I like her plenty (insanely smart, and very personable), I don't have the impression she is interested, although as I said before, if she is, she'd be insane to say so at this point. I think Cuomo could actually do the job, but has ruffled a few too many of the wrong feathers to make things right now.

Booker, I actually give an outside chance. He hasn't specifically said he is in (again--speaks for him rather than against him). He tends to be somewhat of a hothead, sort of an Obama with an attitude, and without the worldly erudition. But recent events have proven beyond the shadow of a doubt that worldly erudition is by no means universally considered a plus with our electorate. And he DOES know how to command attention when he wants to. Growing up on the streets of New Jersey means a different temperament than what you become if you grow up on the islands of Oahu and Java, and so anyone who expects him to become an exact Obama clone is waiting for Godot.

The Republicans do well with tired, angry same-old. We do well with young fresh blood that inspires (Clinton, Obama). I think we could do worse that to remember what brought us our last two successes. I only wish someone had discovered the fountain of youth and given Howard Dean a lifetime supply of the water, but alas, he'll be 70 this fall, and is not interested. That, and the fact Judy would chain his private parts to the bathroom sink if he even made so much as an offhand comment about trying. She had enough of that scene ten years ago, and has told him so in no uncertain terms (if you doubt it, tell me the last time you saw her with him in public, and I rest my case).

At this point in time, no one (including me) expects Joe Kennedy to make any statements even hinting that he is interested in running for the presidency, while keeping up a very visible (and photogenic) media presence. If I were in his shoes, and were giving it some serious thought, that is EXACTLY the scenario I'd follow, which is why I think he is oneto keep an eye on--that fact that no one considers him a serious candidate for 2020 is precisely why he could become one in twelve to eighteen months.

[Hekate]

162. What you said; good insight as always. No one in their right mind will actually say out loud...

...that they are running for POTUS in 2020.

By the way, have you given any thought to the Californians? We have a freshman Senator who's a real up and comer, not to mention a couple of outspoken Representatives. All of them are young, but not too young.

Love what you said about the backgrounds of Booker vs Obama: I could like Booker, I'm sure. But as someone originally from O'ahu myself, I flat out fell in love with Obama once I read his first book.

[DFW]

208. I was remiss in addressing one thing you mentioned

And that was the possibility of one of the Castro brothers on the ticket. Whichever one you choose would make a credible VP candidate although a lot more national profile would help. Booker/Castro would suit most any Democrat just fine, but send the deplorables heading for their foil-covered shelters. Such a ticket would require a GOTV so massive as to make 2016 seem like a Democratic no show by comparison. Just because rational people have moved beyond the ethnic bias that would hinder such a ticket from viability, that in no way gets even one deplorable head screwed back on straight. It would require literally all hands on deck, and that's a number we've never sung in tune before.

[katmondoo]

125. I will not support him this time

[Wwcd]

140. A hint of that huge drop-off came loud & clear when he was protested out of the building

..at the Women's Convention.

Remember?

[Hekate]

157. Well played

[oasis]

81. No tax returns, no nomination. nt

[StevieM]

87. I am looking for Tom Steyer to be our nominee.

And I think he will surprise people.

[still_one]

128. Has he announced?

[StevieM]

135. Well, no one has announced yet. But he seems like he might be looking to enter the race.

And I am hopeful that he will.

[RandomAccess]

215. I'd like it if he surprised me with a lot more energy

Sheesh -- he's little better than a cadaver.

He's wasting his money with his low-key, easy to ignore advertising.

He's a loser, IMO. A wealthy one, but not a very politically savvy one.

[Chemisse]

90. I voted for Sanders last time but probably won't next time.

I wasn't fully happy with either of the two main candidates, and it took me a long time to finally decide.

Hopefully we will get a nice array of quality candidates from which to choose next time around. And I am just going to pick the best one. It's not likely to be Bernie, as he has a lot of negatives, imo.

[Botany]

92. Sanders needs to go away

n/t

[Fresh_Start]

94. Nope. not going to happen

he's lost a lot more democrats they you believe.

And while I'm sure he will still be supported by Russia....I hope that at least some democrats have learned from 2016 and won't be so easily mislead.

[NewJeffCT]

96. I hope you are correct

Unless it's actually countered, Russian influence will only increase and become more sophisticated in 2018 and 2020.

[grossproffit]

97. That will lead to 4 more years of Trump.

[still_one]

101. bullshit. Sanders couldn't change his party affiliation back to independent fast enough after 2016

and that action was not lost to any of the millions of registered Democrats who don't appreciate someone who just uses the convenience of the Democratic party just to further his political ambitions.

He has made it very clear he is NOT a registereed Democrat, so good luck with him playing that one-trick pony again.

There is one group without a doubt that would welcome Sanders to run in 2020, and that is the republicans

The thing a Sanders run would accomplish in 2020 is being a spoiler

The heavy favorite right now for the Democrats is Joe Biden. He is the only DEMOCRAT that has actually expressed interest in running.

I recall the arguments used by some Sanders supporters in 2016 that they are "tired of voting for the lesser of the two evils", and they won't allow issues such as the Supreme Court motivating them to vote for the Democratic nominee.

The actions of those self-identified progressives who refused to vote for the Democratic nominee in 2016 are not forgotten. What comes around, goes around.

[NewJeffCT]

104. Has support for Sanders plunged

among Democrats in 2018?

[still_one]

122. Support for what? Not for President, and mostly from his echo chamber or

The typical Politico BS

Most important he refuses to be a Democrat. It is time to move past 2016

[Gothmog]

138. Yes

[Yavin4]

105. Yeah, no.

Bernie has no chance at the nomination. His support is limited and cannot grow beyond a certain level. Yes, it will be a fractured field at the start, but as the primaries wear on, other candidates will drop out and the potential nominee will pick up support from the other candidates.

Now, will Bernie and his supporters try to spoil the general election because their favorite candidate lost? Probably, but I hope that we're beyond that shit by now.

[Faux pas]

112. Kicketty Kickin'

[BannonsLiver]

113. If you think this is bad you might, oh I don't know, try participating in the primary process!

That you haven't in previous campaigns is rather bizarre IMO.

[NewJeffCT]

143. I said I did not support any candidate during the process

It doesn't mean I didn't vote - the Connecticut primary was too late to be a factor in 2008 and 2016.

I just know that whoever won in 2016 - Sanders or Clinton - was infinitely preferable to the GOP candidate. It didn't matter who won, I was voting for the Democrat.

The same in 2008 - Obama, Clinton and Edwards were all far superior to any GOP candidate running. So, it didn't matter who won to me, I was voting (D) anyhow.

[MFM008]

114. Sanders again

[yardwork]

121. Bernie will have to release his tax returns this time.

He won't get another pass on that.

[NewJeffCT]

149. Will the 45 percent or so of 2016 primary voters

that didn't care about his tax returns in 2016 suddenly start caring about it?

[yardwork]

218. Some of them will, yes.

[disillusioned73]

123. Can't argue with any of that....

[lillypaddle]

127. No fucking NO!

I loathe that man and everything about him.

[Amimnoch]

174. +1

[mvd]

129. I'd certainly enthusiastically support him again. He's my favorite

It would be nice for a new progressive candidate to emerge, however. Bernie is great but the movement is about more than just Bernie. I also would like a candidate who can unite the whole party, and not sure one of the 2016 primary candidates would do that.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

165. I feel the same way.

I wish someone genuine would step up to the plate - and that doesn’t include the latest “change of hearts” we’ve had concerning PAC money, pharmaceutical money and Single Payer.

“Me too” should only apply to sexual abuse and harassment; not what SHOULD be baseline Democratic principles.

[bronxiteforever]

130. Impossible to predict accurately now. You left out Biden

And probably a few more. The field isn’t set and Cheeto has two more years to go. I think Sanders peaked in 2016 and the 2020 electorate won’t be focused on the same things as 2016.
I also believe there are more female candidates available.

[musette_sf]

131. I believe a Democrat

will win the Democratic nomination in 2020. As it should be.

[aka-chmeee]

141. I'll retire to Bedlam. nt

[politicaljunkie41910]

142. So you didn't vote in the 2016 Primary but you want to influence the 2020 Primary by giving us your

unvarnished opinion about why Sanders will ultimately be the winner before a single primary vote is cast. Thank's but no thanks. We don't need you Bernie supporters to keep trying to find new ways to try and convince the rest of us that your 76 year old candidate is the only viable candidate that the Democratic Party has to offer. Quite the contrary. Maybe you should spend your time trying to convince your candidate why he should, at the very least, join the party that he wants so badly to lead.

[NewJeffCT]

153. where did I say I didn't vote?

I said I did not support a candidate until after the nomination was decided. Connecticut primaries have been too late to be a factor in the nomination process. Connecticut was April 19 in 2016 when the race was essentially over after Super Tuesday on March 1.

[politicaljunkie41910]

182. UJhhhh. How about in the second line of your OP? You said that you didn't support anyone in 2016.

[NewJeffCT]

184. that doesn't mean

I didn't vote - I did not go out & campaign anywhere for Sanders, Clinton, O'Malley or those other guys. Didn't donate money or time, either. The race was over by the time the Connecticut primary came along in 2016 and my vote didn't matter.

[lunamagica]

144. I believe you are wrong

After the way he's been talking about the Democratic party I'd be surprised if he had the gall to become a Democrat again.

My prediction is that he will run as an independent.

[bigtree]

145. so the tax returns are on the way then?

...the moment he lost any credibility he had, or any claim he was some kind of anti-pol, was the moment he reneged on that promise. Very suspicious, especially after scouring Hillary for her financial choices.

Also, we should expect more scrutiny on the affairs of his wife then, given his campaign's obsession the last time with Bill's financial affairs.

[NewJeffCT]

148. because tax returns have been proven

to matter to his base of support and to the Republicans and moderates that supported Trump? He got 45% of the vote in 2016 despite not releasing his tax returns. Are a significant number of that 45% going to drop Sanders now for the same reason?

[bigtree]

219. what else does his base not care about?

[Blue_true]

147. I believe.

That a tooth fairy left eight solid gold bricks under my pillow last night. I had a headache this morning for a good reason look like.

[Wwcd]

151. He's not interested in being President. His goal is promoting his Media Empire

[Hekate]

156. Nomination in what Party, exactly? He won't get a second bite at the Democratic apple

At this point he's in it for the smell of the greasepaint and the roar of the crowd.

And did you fail to notice that Senator Sanders is not a Democrat?

[lunatica]

169. I truly believe hes simply too old

I’m a Babyboomer and a Sanders supporter because I’m a Progressive Democratic Socialist, but in recent months I’ve seen some real progressive young people making giant impacts on the population. They will vote for progressives among themselves. They are a whole new chapter in our country and they should take the lead now. I believe we need a break with the old blood now in that sense only. Sanders and Hillary will always be the elder Sages and the go-to wisdom in support of our younger government.

That’s the way it should be.

[Adrahil]

171. Not only no, but fuck no.

I’ll vote for him if he gets the nom. But Whatever good will I held toward him was destroyed by his behavior in 2016.

[Amimnoch]

175. You're willing to go a little farther than I would.

Won't go into more detail than that out of respect for TOS.

[Amimnoch]

172. Nope. Never. nt.

[moriah]

176. I will vote for the nominee, but we should avoid premature assumptions & work for 2018 now.

Until we see how Congressional and Senate elections play out, we won't necessarily know which areas to target and what candidate will be likely to reach the most people in the right states likely to vote our way.

Plus, we don't have many announced candidates, for that reason.

2020 speculation is a distraction from looking at our own 2018 state primaries and trying to figure out where our vote should go, and from preparing for getting whoever wins those primaries in office. JMHO.

[demosincebirth]

178. not if I have anything to say about it. If he joined the democratic party, I might think about it.

[samnsara]

180. not as a dem he wont

[Tarc]

183. 78 is too old

If he winds up with the nomination, I'd certainly vote for him, but would prefer younger blood.

[YOHABLO]

185. I think we all need to chill. Focus on midterms

TV

[spanone]

186. nomination of which party?

[Kolesar]

187. Joe Lieberman for Senate party? eom

[NewJeffCT]

188. When he lost the Democratic nomination in 2006

and ran on his own, it was the "Connecticut for Lieberman" party. Not, "Lieberman for Connecticut"

[Demsrule86]

189. I don't think so...he has burned to many bridges...and I hope not because he will lose a general.

[grantcart]

194. Lol

If he ever becomes the front runner his vodoo budget ideas will get scorched under real scrutiny.

The record for "front runners" is abysmal, ask Jen Bush, Hillary 2008, and so on.

Sanders wants to be the king maker and annoit the next nominee, IMO.

[0rganism]

195. i'm really glad you believe we'll still have elections in 2020

lately i've had my doubts. your faith is reassuring.

[Still In Wisconsin]

196. Please, no Bernie and no Hillary.

I supported Bernie in the primary and Hillary in the general, but if eithe one (or both) decide to run again I hope they are dispatched early in the primary process by more viable candidates.

[NewJeffCT]

207. I doubt Clinton will run again

Sanders, I believe, will try to run again

[ashtonelijah]

197. Then I will no longer have a party. And Trump will win again. With the popular vote this time.

Given the choice of two narcissistic demagogues and no actual Democrat, people will choose the worst of the two: Trump.

Those of us who can afford another Trump win the least – like those of us who are LGBT in states like Mississippi – don’t deserve this. White supremacy and patriarchy on the left and right doomed us in 2016. And now it wants to return to do it again in 2020?

I’ll do everything I can to make sure this Democrat-bashing non-Democrat demagogue is never the nominee of MY party.

It’s time to start firing on all cylinders to stop him.

[chillfactor]

202. I don't agree....

I believe the Democrats have many better candidates.

[Loki Liesmith]

204. If Biden runs hes got my vote

[greatauntoftriplets]

205. For what party? His own???

Certainly not as a Democrat of conveniences and because the DNC would throw money at him. Trying for the Democratic nomination after the way he ran -- not walked -- away from the Democratic party after 2016 would be one of the most cynical moves of all time.

No, just no.

[Mrsmoodle]

206. Long game

I bet there’s a great deal of young talent smart enough to wait and emerge in the public eye at the right time.

[NewJeffCT]

212. Welcome to DU

I agree - there are smart, young(er) and charismatic potential candidates out there

The Castro Brothers
Cory Booker
Kamala Harris
Gavin Newsom
the mayor of South Bend, IN

And, while I"m not a big fan of his politics, Kennedy has some charisma and name recognition.

[Mrsmoodle]

223. Thanks

Thanks. Been lurking since 2001. I learn much more than I could possibly contribute. I’m liking Kamala Harris very much. Keeping my eye on her.

[marble falls]

213. You bet there is, welcome to DU!

[Garrett78]

217. I suspect many of the 2016 anti-Clinton Sanders voters will abandon Sanders if he runs again.

In other words, I disagree with the presumption that most who voted for Sanders in 2016 will vote for him again in 2020. Clinton is very polarizing, and still she had the nomination wrapped up by early March. In 2020, the "Sanders vote" will probably be just as dispersed as the "Clinton vote." Chris Murphy, for instance, could win over a lot of Sanders supporters.

While Sanders may start off strong and build some momentum (assuming he runs), the field of candidates will quickly decrease and at least one candidate (if not two or three) will overtake Sanders.

[fleabiscuit]

220. nyet.

[librechik]

222. perfect

I expect to see him ensconced at RT any minute now.