How a 21-year-old college senior became the breakout star of 2018 election forecasting

[workinclasszero]

G. Elliott Morris: If you watch Twitter on election nights, you know the name.
By Tara Golshan and Ella Nilsen Jun 1, 2018, 8:10am EDT

Primary election night Twitter is about the hype. It’s a hotbed of instant, and at times misguided, analysis prognosticating a historic election in November.

Morris is a kind of extremely online election watcher tailor-made for a year when Democrats are looking for a blue wave. With more than 22,000 followers, Morris has become a familiar name to seasoned pollsters, national campaign reporters, and #resist Twitter alike. Pinned to the top of his Twitter page is a graph of his 2018 projection model; it’s a straight line shooting up toward a Democratic House takeover in November.

Link to tweet

His personal blog, the Crosstab, is chock-full of posts with nearly the same conclusion: All things point to a wave. His forecast model predicts Democrats have a 60 percent chance of winning the House majority back in November. To be clear, Morris says his model operates in a “paradigm of uncertainty.”

https://www.vox.com/2018/6/1/17164960/midterms-2018-forecast-projection-g-elliott-morris

[saidsimplesimon]

1. Sending Morris congratulations

for playing "The Art of War", claiming victory before the results are in has great value.

[regnaD kciN]

2. In other words, he's currently the "hot" fortune-teller...

Problem is, he has no real track record on which to base the accuracy of his predictions. It's no different from stock-market prognosticators -- someone becomes a "wizard" based on predicting/guessing a couple of big unexpected moves in a row, but a few months later his "magic touch" has evaporated and he's gone back to obscurity.

Anyway, I think the last election should bury the notion of relying on "expert poll forecasters." Remember that, before 2016, Sam Wang was considered the best of the best from his calls the previous few elections. On Election Day, he predicted Hillary Clinton had a "greater than 99%" chance of winning. That should be a lesson to us all.

[mythology]

4. Sam Wang also thought Kerry had a 98% probability in 2004

He was never an expert. People wanted to believe him and so called him an expert. 538 was saying before the election that Trump's odds of winning were much higher than anticipated and correctly explained why.

[bucolic_frolic]

3. 60%

is not a sure thing. It's just 1 in 10 better than even. So his predictions sound rosy to me.

[Loki Liesmith]

6. You haven't read his predictions then

[Loki Liesmith]

5. Be careful G Elliot emphasizes that

wave doesn’t necessarily mean a D takeover

[crazycatlady]

9. The key for a blue wave

Is fighting in the tier 2 and tier 3 districts.

I'm working in a district that is bluer than Conor Lamb's but it is not on anyone's radar. It is R+6 and everyone at the doors is telling me how much they hate the incumbent GOP rep.

[Me.]

7. PLease God

[workinclasszero]

8. "Special elections point to the largest Democratic wave election since 1994."

I hope this holds up, we need it to, badly.

[pstokely]

10. predictions don't GOTV

nt

[xmas74]

11. They don't but damn if the Dems aren't working it.

In Missouri they've opened twenty combined HQ before the end of May. Twenty and there are plans for more.
My daughter is interning at one. They are stacking up young volunteers, actually reaching out to the youth and telling them to consider their volunteer team as people who can make a difference, make history. And they want them to think of the headquarters as a place where they actually belong.

It's crazy to watch. If they can get the youth they'll take it all back and they are focused on a fifty state with heavy youth encouragement.