CA-49: Democrats Applegate, Jacobs and Levin tied for spot in November ballot

[RandySF]

new poll in the tightly-contested 49th Congressional District campaign shows that state tax board member Diane Harkey has taken a breakaway lead with a pack of Democrats in a mathematical tie for second place.

Harkey, R-Dana Point, was backed by 24 percent of likely voters in a San Diego Union-Tribune/10News poll conducted between May 29 and 31, well ahead of the two Democrats who were tied for second at 11 percent.

Harkey, a former Dana Point mayor and Assembly member, was endorsed by the San Diego and Orange County Republican parties as well as the incumbent, Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Vista, who chose not to seek re-election.

“We are very pleased with the results, which match our own internal tracking,” said David Gilliard, Harkey's campaign consultant. “We will continue to work hard until the polls close on Tuesday.”

It’s a notable gain after other previous polls put Harkey in a distant third or beyond.

The top two voter getters in the June 5 primary will proceed to a runoff election in November, regardless of party.

Lawyer Doug Applegate and former non-profit executive Sara Jacobs were tied for second at 11 percent with Mike Levin, also a lawyer, at 10 percent. All three are Democrats. Assemblyman Rocky Chávez, R-Oceanside and businessman Paul Kerr, a Democrat, followed at 8 percent.

It’s a big slide for Chavez, who polled at 16 percent in early April. He has been portrayed as a big spender in the statehouse in an attack ad by national Democrats, who apparently saw him as a candidate they did not want to face in November.

The poll also shows that Applegate’s base has shifted since the 2016 election, when he challenged Issa and lost by 1,621 votes . Of his supporters from two years ago, 26 percent are still backing him, while 20 percent moved to Jacobs and another 20 percent switched to Levin.

While the SurveyUSA poll put Levin in a virtual tie for second, another touted by his campaign by Democratic polling company Tulchin Research put him at at 17 percent, ahead of Harkey who had 15 percent. The poll had a 4 percentage point margin of error, meaning they were neck-and-neck. Applegate was at 12 percent in that poll, and Chávez was at 11 percent.


http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/politics/sd-me-49th-poll-20180601-story.html

[redstateblues]

1. Ahh-the old jungle primary where we can shoot ourselves in the foot

[Blue_true]

2. Looks unlikely that a repub will slip into second.

So if the repub finishes first at 21% and percentages hold, she face a democrat whose party polled at 40% versus her party polling at 29%.

[Garrett78]

3. If Levin and Kerr weren't running, I wonder if we could take the top 2 spots. Not likely, I suppose.

Let's just hope Chavez doesn't pull off a 2nd place finish because a couple of Democrats couldn't bring themselves to do the right thing.