A Second American Civil War

[egbertowillies]

Imagine that an impeachment resolution against Trump passes the House. Trump claims it’s the work of the “deep state.” Fox News’s Sean Hannity demands every honest patriot take to the streets. Rightwing social media call for war. As insurrection spreads, Trump commands the armed forces to side with the “patriots.”

http://bit.ly/2xJEbz1

[roamer65]

1. There will be a military coup d'etat first.

The military will step in to defend the Constitution, per their oath. If the military substantially fractures, then there will be a Yugoslavian-style bloodbath.

[Blue_true]

7. I am no longer that will happen.

When Trump demands something, the military bend over backwards to give it to him. They gave President Obama some pushback. I do not trust the military as an institution to do the right thing, I do expect that large numbers of soldiers would defect though.

[Hoyt]

10. Not so sure. Check out how many in military, police and vets are white wingers.

Besides, you ever heard a 3%er or 2nd Amendment supporter interpret the Constitution?

[HAB911]

19. Unfortunately the services have been infiltrated

by evangelicals (AF primarily) and rightwing skinhead white supremacists. I'm not so confidant.

[vercetti2021]

2. It would be the death of the GOP and their flock

Idiots playing solider going up against actual trained soldiers. Yeah that fight would end quickly before it started.

[Lint Head]

3. Believe it or not progressives own guns.

[underthematrix]

5. Yes they do. Republicans don't remember the seventies

Most African Americans own at least one gun but they don't advertise that fact.

[uponit7771]

14. +1

[lapfog_1]

4. impeached is not convicted.

Trump and his advisers know enough to suffer through impeachment and Trump pardoning everyone in sight.

I think they will know that he is more or less conviction proof in the Senate.

[brooklynite]

6. Lovely fantasy story; not at all based in reality

The majority of Trump voters won't be prepared to "rise up", the "insurrection" won't "spread" and the military won't step in.

[HAB911]

20. I agree

they don't have the balls to actually do anything so extreme

[Oneironaut]

8. A counterpoint: Trump cannot just stay in power.

It doesn't matter what he says - there is no Constitutional way for him to stay in power. To do so, he would need to upend our entire system of government. It's not going to happen - even if Congress wanted him to stay as well (which would never happen). If an impeachment resolution passed the House, that would mean his odds were even worse. Our government is pretty resilient against being destroyed from within, not that it can't happen.

If Trump refused to leave (which he won't), you wouldn't need anything severe like the military to get him out of office - he would just be dragged out.

The President just isn't powerful enough to make meaningful dictatorial proclamations like that. He can whip his followers into a frenzy, but it wouldn't matter. At the end of the day, such a proclamation won't be honored or taken seriously.

[Yupster]

13. Someone gave me a way years ago

A president after serving two terms gets elected Speaker of The House. Then the Prez and VP resign on the same day and voila, he's President again. The idea rested on the wording of the amendment that said you can't be elected after serving 1 1/2 terms. It didn't say you can't serve. Seemed doubtful to me, but it's so remote I never looked it up.

[MicaelS]

21. I read it as ....

A person can only serve 10 years minus 1 day.

22nd Amendment states:

Section 1. No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once.

So President Jones dies, resigns or is removed via Impeachment, and Vice-President Smith assumes the office of the President.

If Smith assumes the office before 2 years have passed, Smith can only run for and serve, one more term.

If 2 years have passed, Smith can run for, and serve two more terms.

[Yupster]

22. But the loophole is that he can't be elected

It doesn't say he can't serve if he got in some way other than election.

It's a weird idea, but it did at least get me thinking.

[NBachers]

9. How do those Million Trump Supporters Real American things work out? There's your "insurrection."

[Westcoast52]

11. Remember Murphy's Law

Your premise of an impeachment resolution depends upon Democrats taking the House this fall. Other outcomes are possible. Yes, an armed tribe is out there ready to 'rise up' if they can get a free pass to raise hell--but that's not the same as a dedicated, organized rebellion. Few Americans will give up their creature-comforts (like water/electricity) to fight a bloody war with no quick end and no obvious gain. Sean Hannity and his ilk are not propaganda masters like Goebbels. The military may split off, but chances are they will side with order, not Trumpian chaos. Trump is voicing imaginary powers he does not have and only a few believe he has. And then there is world reaction to global disruption of everything if America follows your scenario. Too many unknowns the bigger it gets. Trump will likely eliminate himself just by the daily descent into madness his tweets reveal. If it turns into Yugoslavia, as one contributor suggests, most likely militia wannabes will kill each other off trying to hold a Walmart. Give it three to four weeks to play out until food and water are gone. There is no Brownshirt unity and discipline out there to sustain a rebellion. One way or another, Trump will go. A military backing up Don the Con is unimaginable; they hate his guts. And then all this can be averted if Donnie strokes out from too many burgers.

[Downtown Hound]

12. Bullshit fantasy.

There aren't nearly as many "patriot" (and I use that word with a high degree of sarcasm) groups that will go to war as they would like us to believe. And most members of the U.S. military will uphold their oaths, again, contrary to what they would have us believe.

Just more intimidation from cowards that have nothing else.

[Exotica]

15. That particular scenario would'nt happen. Trump knows the 67 votes to convict and remove don't exist

so he would not go nuclear at that point (at just Impeachment).

In the Senate,even if we sweep all 4 R-held possible states (AZ, NV we probably take, TN perhaps a little less likely but I think we do it,, TX is a huge stretch) and defend ALL our pre-existing seats, we are at 53 (51 Dems, 2 indies), ie. 14 short of conviction and removal.

That also assumes that Democratic Senators from HUGELY pro Trump states (ie Manchin, Heitkamp, Donnelly, Tester, McCaskill, Jones) vote to convict as well. In 1998, 10 Republicans voted to not convict Clinton on one charge, 5 on another. Isee the most likely Dems to not convict as being Manchin, Heitkamp and Donnelly. Jones knows he is (unless the Rethugs nominate another paedo or similar nightmare) toast in 2020, so I believe would do the right thing. Tester and McCaskill as well. Manchin maybe, Heitkamp and Donnelly I have not nearly enough faith in to say I would trust them 100%. Bredesen from TN would be in same position as TN is a huge Trump state, but I think he would vote to convict.

Looking at the BEST possible scenario (ie 53 Dems, 47 Rethugs)

Here are the possible Rethug votes to convict (again, a LOT of this has depends on what Trump is charged with, and that we take back the House and Pelosi actually moves forward with impeachment, which is not guaranteed.)


Most Likely (in no order,and ALL are shaky)

Lisa Murkowski
Cory Gardner
Marco Rubio
Mitt Romney
Rand Paul
Susan Collins
Ben Sasse
Jeanne Shaheen

8


John McCain would maybe vote to convict, but he will 99% not be alive, and his appointed replacement will be a hard RWer, so a no


the maybe but doubtfuls

Lindsey Graham
Dan Sullivan
Lamar Alexander

3


so 11, or 3 short of 67

AND if there are not 67, many of those 11 will not vote to convict, as Trump will GO INSANE all-out attack on them if they vote to remove and he stays.

and to get to that '3 short' total means we do something never done before (defend ALL seats and pick up ALL flip-able/open possible seats)

plus have zero Democratic defections on the Senate vote.

[Lee-Lee]

16. Nonsense fantasy with a drive-by link to an ad heavy clickbait site

The military is going to side with whatever side is following the Constitution.

If it was the point where the Constitutional issues were actually in question and disputed and there was not a clear answer, most likely the military would end up sitting it out.

It’s also worth noting that the military is not a monolith. It is not made up up unthinking order following robots. If things got to the point where it was involved in a domestic civil war the military would fracture and you would have the biggest effect that if becoems very ineffective, with some units going one way and some going others and a lot of them ineffective at all because they are too divided.

Then you would have National Guard units, where a whole lot of the nations combat power is held. Red States and Blue States may order different thins and get different results.

But for the most part it would be ineffective and out of the fight.

Honestly, if it came down to another civil war in this country and it was red areas vs blue areas it would break down to one thing as a weapon- food.

Take a look at the county election results map. Blue areas are concentrated densely in urban areas. They don’t produce much of any food, and there are no reserves. Food is grown and produced in the red areas.

Supermarkets don’t have any reserves in the back.

If red areas stopped the truck flowing into blue areas the food would run out in about 4 days. And as the old saying goes a society is only 3 missed meals from anarchy.

A civil war in this country would be horrible and messy, but I doubt it would play out like many on any side believe. It would be more a matter of starvation and riots and loss of the rule of law.

[Tipperary]

17. Let me guess.

This link goes to your blog. Interesting how you have hidden the link that had your name on it. Very clever.

[FreepFryer]

18. What is the point of this post? Fearmongering garbage doesn't inspire change. (n/t)

[GulfCoast66]

23. Did I just click on FR? But I get it...

It is obvious you can’t drum up enough visits on your own site without driving DU members to it. I get it. Free market and all.

But please refrain from using right wing Civil War II kind of click bait talking points.

The whole premise is total bullshit.