David Stockman predicts 50% stock market plunge and explains why (VIDEO)

[egbertowillies]

Those who are in this stock market fiction better heed the warnings from Reagan's OMB director, David Stockman, who found truth during the instantiation of voodoo economic/supply-side economics in then real-time. The tax cut was a scam that pilfered most Americans, and the inflated stock prices will leave another group holding the bag IMHO.

http://bit.ly/2LrFMeA

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. If

If it has to happen September would be a great time.

[Blue_true]

6. I agree. Nothing would work better to drive commonsense into the heads of many Americans.

Although I think soaring healthcare and gas prices are already starting to get their fucking attention.

[MBS]

2. Never thought I'd agree with David Stockman. .

but I've been operating for awhile on the assumption that a crash will happen soon.

[ProfessorGAC]

3. There Is No Technical Basis For Stockman's Prediction

This is fear mongering. I'd be concerned that Stockman has promotional interest in guaranteed income funds or annuities.

What better way to get people frightened into moving the money into something other than equities?

[brush]

4. Possibly, but market crashes always come during repug admins because of their...

favor-the-rich policies.

History shows that over and over.

[MBS]

5. yup, that's the pattern I've noticed, and what's behind my assumptio

Obviously, I don't have any special expertise here, but I find that correlation pretty persuasive. Plus, coupled with the looming disasters of *'s trade wars and other foreign policy disasters, abandonment of sensible programs to address emerging international infectious diseases, consequences of tax cuts and weakening of Obamacare and other parts of the safety net: all of that spells for me massive financial instability ahead.

[ProfessorGAC]

7. That May Be

But, 50% is a ridiculous prediction.

Technically, there has already been a correction, because the trendline that ticked up slightly (comparing the last 5 years of BHO to the first year of PINO) has now fallen back below the trend.

It's still in the 95% confidence interval, so it's not terribly significant statistically, but it would only take about a 8% drop from today to achieve statistical significance.

That said, i do agree with your basic premise that R's in charge tend to cause analysts to get irrationally optimistic, and then when the technical underpinnings of equity value get inflated by that, the market corrects. It doesn't actually seem to be policy as much as unwarranted wishful thinking by investors over the "wonderful" policies promised by the R's that never actaully work that way.

[brush]

9. As sure as night follows day though, economic crashes follow repugs in office...

and Dems have to clean up their mess.

I myself suffered from the trump tariff/yahoo mini-correction you mentioned and am now sitting out the current trading range up-and-down in money market funds and cd ladders.

I'll get back in after the trump crash.

[Awsi Dooger]

8. This is the website that told me my Apple stock was no good

More than 15 years ago.

"Nothing but overpriced hardware...blah, blah, blah, " courtesy of several posters but Hypno Toad in particular. Thread after thread. He was so laughably fixated on here and now that the big picture sailed comfortably over his head every minute of every day. I kept telling him it didn't matter what Steve Jobs was doing now, or what his products cost in relation to similar PCs. Jobs was a visionary. The stock is a gamble on greatness. He didn't return to Apple to change from beige to fruity colors. Just sit back and allow the genius to make you wealthy, whatever the vehicle. It happened to be smart phones.

I adopted this avatar to mock Hypno Toad and others on the anti-Apple bandwagon. Newcomers to this site wouldn't realize how relentless it was, circa 2003. They started threads to rip Apple and then undertook a virtual rerun within days. The stock was 40 bucks at that point. They were predicting demise due to high hardware costs. I was startled that fellow Democrats could be so limited and clueless. But situational variables are hardly a strength of the liberal mindset, as I've come to learn. Every energy for more than 16 months since Trump has been elected should have been toward college registration drives. That is the Steve Jobs mode of this quest. Future in focus. But it required Tom Steyer to belatedly figure it out a few months ago, and now the Parkland kids.

Anyway, I don't care about fear. Fear is cherished by Trump and the Simplistic Angry Males he puppets around. Jim Valvano said it's a full day if you think, laugh and cry. Now Trump has changed it to not a full day unless you hate, fear and divide. This is merely another example.

A month or two ago there were threads here every day, championing the stock market dive in absolute delight. We had forecasts of 18,000 by summer. I responded by buying more technology stocks, as I mentioned at the time. That sector owns the strongest fundamentals right now. The dip was a nice entry point.

If the market plunges I'll take some of my sports betting bankroll and press up. Yawn.