Rating Change: New Jersey 5 Moves Off Competitive List

[RandySF]

Republican optimism about defeating Democratic Rep. Josh Gottheimer in New Jersey’s 5th District was fueled by President Donald Trump’s narrow victory in 2016, the congressman’s initial victory over a lackluster incumbent and Republican Steve Lonegan’s deep pockets and past electoral performance in the area.

But that scenario took a turn for the worse when Lonegan lost the June 5 primary and Garden State Republicans nominated former Cresskill Borough Councilman John McCann. He had just $46,000 in his campaign account on May 16 compared to $3.9 million for Gottheimer.

This is the type of district in North Jersey that could swing back to Republicans with a Democrat sitting in the White House. But this is a different type of cycle with Republicans at risk of a midterm backlash against the President’s party.

We’re changing the Inside Elections rating of the race in New Jersey’s 5th District from Lean Democratic to Solid Democratic. That means there are just nine vulnerable Democratic seats on our list of competitive races, compared to nearly 70 vulnerable seats currently held by Republicans.


http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/rating-change-new-jersey-5-moves-off-competitive-list

[TheBlackAdder]

1. NJ Republicans are sick of Lonegan's shit. He's just a one-time mayor and serial loser afterwards.

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If you listen to the guy, he sounds like a loon.

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[Jim Lane]

2. Yes, and for that reason I'm surprised at the shift in the rating.

If I were Gottheimer I would've been rooting for Lonegan to win the primary. Despite his money, he would've been a weaker opponent than the more conventional type who won the GOP nomination.

[Jersey Devil]

3. It's still going to be a tough fight for Gottheimer in NJ-5

It is my former congressional district and I know it well. It was extremely gerrymandered to favor a Republican and includes areas that stretch like a thin ribbon from rural western NJ cow country to the Hudson River. My Cong rep for years was extreme right winger Scott Garrett. I don't care how little money the Repub has, it will be competative and a tough win for the Dem.