Red Wave? It could happen.

[Comatose Sphagetti]

I live in whitest-white, deepest-red rural Indiana. I am surrounded by MAGAbillies.

Believe me when I say rural voters are going to crawl over glass to vote republican in November.

In my county primaries last month, over 3,000 voted for republicans. There were a total of 300-plus democratic votes... almost a 10-to-1 difference. For at least six positions democrats didn't even attempt to run, knowing it to be useless. This is common in rural counties in America. And all this 500 days into the most insane presidency our country has ever known.

People have to get it through their heads there is nothing trump can do that will turn off his base - wars where their kids come home in body bags, fuel prices, housing, jobs, his policies, the Russian thing or his moral character - you name it. They will not abandon him. It is a sickness born of fear, greed, vengeance and retaliation.

It's not even about trump, really; he is but a symptom... as long as he is against their enemy - the godless (make that Jesus-less) libtards, they will not leave him, though they suffer mightily themselves. Religious intolerance and authoritarianism play a huge part of the sickness these people suffer from. They will vote based not on their own self-interest, but for whoever will stop critical thinkers, free thinkers, scientists, black/brown people, LGBTQ, etc... - anyone who challenges their conception of moral, bible-based order.

And now is what these people have been waiting for for 40 years... Power and control is all theirs and this, they know, may be their only chance to turn things their way. They are packing the courts with conservative/religious judges as we speak.

The time is now and they know it. And they will do it by any means necessary because all is fair in giving the country over to Jesus.

We have to go around, through, and over these people. I've been saying it since the early days of "Let's try to understand them" uselessness: You will not reach them or change their minds.

VOTE!

[bearsfootball516]

1. I don't think anyone needs convincing that incredibly red districts are going to vote Republican.

[Demsrule86]

2. We will see.

[blueinredohio]

3. I know the feeling I'm in red Ohio but we have about 4 in 10 vote democratic.

My area is not as bad as yours but I feel your pain. Also when in a small town in Indiana last weekend for the grandsons graduation the first thing you see when coming into town is a confederate flag.

[Comatose Sphagetti]

4. Confederate flags everywhere here.

We have MAGAbillies right down the road. Had their giant confederate flag hanging from an electric pole literally inches from the road. Soooooo embarrassing when friends came to visit.

They're renters and the home owner/utility company must have said something to them because they finally took it down.

[creeksneakers2]

5. The election of Donald Trump

was a mass act of political arson. If polls in late October show a potential blue wave I expect rural voters to turn out the way they did in 2016.

[world wide wally]

6. Indiana is...

Indiana

[Comatose Sphagetti]

9. Unfortunately, rural Indiana is...

Rural Michigan, Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Texas, Illinois, California, New York...

You get my drift.

[brush]

10. They're trump's base. They voted for him before and will again.

Let's just hope we can slow down the Russians and vote suppression/tampering enough so that 70k some votes don't flip the electoral college (which should be eliminated but repugs will never do it because it favors them).

[walkingman]

7. I feel you. Vote indeed!

I live in Central Texas about 30 miles from "Blue Austin" and I can say without a doubt that my neighbors will not vote Democratic in this or the next election. They really think that the Democratic party is the Satan of America. All I ever here (almost daily) is "If we put GOD back in the schools we wouldn't have any more shootings", "They are trying to take away my Guns", " Democrats are Socialists", the "N" word (yep, they say it) - it is not just rural or suburban Texas but rural or suburban SOUTH as a whole. For over 50 years I have thought things would change - they haven't.

I haven't given up but I am not surprised by bigotry or racism or misogyny in white America at all.

VOTE!

[randr]

8. They are officially members of a very dangerous cult

Given the slow rise of so many evangelical cultists over the past few decades it is no surprise that one finally grabbed them all by their gonads and ovaries, to put it politely, and is cashing in big time.

[CrispyQ]

11. For them this is not just Trump, it's a war against liberals.

They hate liberals more than Satan. You are right that they feel they are on the verge of total control. And they may be with a complicit GOP Congress & a rigged electoral process.

[sharedvalues]

14. THAT is what the national press doesn't get

The GOP base didn’t vote for Trump because working class or minimum wage or jobs or decline or trade or coal or even really racism. Forget about all these NYT articles where a reporter parachutes into a diner in Wisconsin.

The GOP base didn’t vote FOR Trump. They voted AGAINST Democrats.

And they voted against Democrats because Fox and Limbaugh and the GOP propaganda machine misled them to hate Democrats.

[pwb]

12. I don't think so.

I think the opposite . Red to blue.

[sharedvalues]

13. GOTV. And call the Magats "suckers"

They got suckered by billionaires and their lies. They and their kids will be paying for that $3 trillion tax cut their whole lives. The Koches are laughing at them. Suckers.

[salin]

15. I am in a blue dot in Indiana.

Some refer to us a the Peoples' Republic of Indiana. But we aren't large enough to impact our gerrymandered Congressional district (but we will try!) Friends and family in other parts of the state see shifts in more suburban/affluent areas - but those who are in more rural areas - not at all. I don't think there will be a 'red wave' (hell that happened in 2016, here with a seats flipping) in the sense of More Red seats. I don't think there will be a big blue wave like in 2006 (or 2008) - because of Gerrymandering watering down the influences of communities like mine - and strengthening the impact or rural areas like yours.

However, I think there may be some interesting shakeups in the metro Indy suburban areas, and a few other places that may shake up the composition (not enough to flip - but maybe take away super majority status) in the State House.

I do think minds can change (and I know some who have changed theirs) - but not because we pander and/or persuade - but because on an individual level the discomfort with some thing(s) that seem so wrong (to the individual) create cracks in the bubble which allows more information (reality) to seep in. When that happens - then conversations can be helpful. I remember that happening around the time of Terri Schaivo, Abu Graihb revelations, and the aftermath of Katrina. At that time I was in the south side of Indianapolis - where there is some diversity of viewpoints - but knew numerous folks who were bamboozled by anti Clinton views and the fake Patriotism that channeled the fear and pain after 911 into blind support for a second war (Iraq). And subsequently 2006 sent more Dems to Congress than republicans.

I don't think any events (yet) have had that kind of shock effect that started cracking some folks bubbles. And without those cracks - I agree with you no 'talking to' or 'trying to understand' is going to do anything. But that isn't to say that enough cumulative jolts over the coming 2 years won't create enough fissures to pave the way for some electoral upsets (going blue) by 2020.

[Initech]

16. I want to think things are going to get better.

But then on a daily basis I'm reminded of who the other side is and what they stand for - hate, bigotry and ugliness.

[stopbush]

17. Most of these red state voters are Christians who have been told their whole lives

that god wants them to suffer here on Earth, and that they will get their reward when they die.

So they don’t really care if tRump and the Rs make their lives worse. They expect it. The reason they vote R is because they want to hurt the lives of non-believers. That way, they “win” when they die because - as the illogic goes - they will be happy for eternity while the non-believers will suffer for eternity. And if they can add to that suffering by giving them a taste of it while they’re alive, well, all the better.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

18. Several factors

The economy is good in terms of the markets and unemployment. Gas prices are up, which is good for oil state economies, as well as corn state economies (ethanol). And the EPA has indicated they don't give a damn anymore, which will make a variety of economic sectors happy.

The North Korea talks are rigged by Putin for Trump to come out appearing to get what he wants. He will appear to be the deal maker he billed himself to be.

OTOH

- As we saw in 2008, a downturn in the economy can be sudden and brutal. That more than any other factor would move voters away from the party in the White House.

- The "separating families at the border" story could blow up into a scandal if photos or video leak. Think Abu Graib.

- Muller could indict Trump, but at this point, I doubt anything serious will happen with that until after November.

- Americans love war if it is quick and successful. We hate war when it is long and costly.

- You never know what X-factors will sway an election in either direction: natural disasters; unexpected deaths; terrorism; ecological disaster; unexpected disease outbreak; etc.

- The key factor may not be "blue wave" or "red wave" but "pink wave." The number of women running for office in both parties may ultimately have more influence than party alignment. I do know I've seen survey data showing that one key disgruntled constituency is evangelical women. They dislike the Stormy Daniels scandal particularly.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. Rural voters are GOP. Who knew ?