Trump has not just started World Trade War 1, he has explicitly invited the world's leading

[Fred Sanders]

economies to abandon the American dollar as the world's official reserve currency.

My bets are on the Renminbi (yuan), next the Euro, with Britain reversing course on Brexit...thank you, Trump!

How else could they possibly respond and still preserve their economies and trade in the long term?

Meanwhile the consequences of the wholesale ditching of American bonds and currency currently in high demand as the preferred instrument of exchange...catastrophe for the dollar and the domestic economy. No one remembers the days of hyperinflation...not fun times.

[Throck]

1. Trump pissed off Canada.

How can you piss off Canada?

[Exotica]

2. even if we (I am a dual US/UK citizen) reverse course on Brexit, we will still keep the Pound

I also have little faith in the Tories not to utterly cock up our leaving the EU. The best we can hope for is for Parliament to vote down whatever deal they negotiate, and then try and pull Brexit back. Many in the EU will also try and block the UK from NOT leaving if we refuse to honour free movement (which I cannot see us honouring without a Labour government in place). It is going to be a shitshow.

[Strelnikov_]

3. Killing the petrodollar as the world's reserve currency, per Putin's orders

”The Rouble must become a more widespread means of international transactions. To this end, we need to open a stock exchange in Russia to trade in oil, gas, and other goods to be paid for in Roubles. Our goods are traded on global markets. Why are not they traded in Russia?”

— President Vladimir Putin, Speaking before the full Russian parliament, Cabinet and international reporters, May 2006


From the Russian perspective, the Saudi role and OPEC model have benefited the United States, which can pressure Saudi Arabia into opening the spigot to deal with supply emergencies; the US also pressures other oil producers, such as Libya, Iraq, Iran, Venezuela, and Indonesia, by military methods, diplomacy, and economic sanctions. In the Russian alternative, the US will be far less influential, and have fewer levers, commercial or military, to effect pressure on the energy suppliers. Russian arms and defense-industry partnerships are on offer to relatively weak, intervention-prone energy producers in Africa and Latin America to offset US pressure.

In the OPEC model, the benchmark is Brent crude, priced in US dollars. In the Russian model, the discount and disadvantage between the Brent and Urals benchmarks will be reduced, and pricing will evolve toward a currency basket, including the ruble. In the OPEC model, suppliers hold much of their cash and government securities in US controlled institutions. In the Russian model, cash is held in the form of a currency basket; conversion from cash is sought into non-US assets, particularly in the European market.

- John Helmer, “Russian energy model challenges OPEC,” Asia Times, July 18, 2006,

[mahina]

4. How soon do you think?

Thank you