History may view Trump's appeasement of North Korea as a diplomatic setback
tantamount to the French allowing the German army to reoccupy the Rhineland.
The French failure to enforce the demilitarization of the Rhineland led to the collapse of the system of alliances so carefully built up to deter a second world war. After this failure former French allies--Yugoslavia, Romania, Bulgaria--all began to scramble to reach an accommodation with Germany. Italy, which had opposed German ambitions in Austria, decided to abandon this position and instead began to seek a German alliance. Only Czechoslovakia continued as an ally--only to be sold out at Munich. Even Poland tried to make a deal with Hitler, until it became obvious any deal short of complete surrender was impossible.
Trump's wiliness to sell out South Korea and Japan will have ramifications far beyond North Asia. Right now military planners in both countries are busily examining their options--which include developing or acquiring nuclear weapons to provide their own deterrence against North Korea, Russia and China. And so, rather than seeing the end of nuclear weapons on the Korean peninsula, we may well see a nuclear arms race as Tokyo and Seoul abandon all faith in American promises of security.
Beyond that, other nations in the region, seeing an increasingly powerful and aggressive China, and an increasingly erratic and unreliable America, will draw their own conclusions. If the US is willing to sell out Japan and South Korea for the vague promise of eventual North Korean disarmament, what might Trump be willing to offer China and Russia in exchange for--what is again we've gained from all this?
And in Europe, reeling from Trump's accusations and blustering about trade, Germany and France are already acting as though the US alliance is irreparably damaged. Germans for generations have been understandably anxious about expanding their military beyond a purely defensive force. The German decision to send troops to Afghanistan in support of the US/British mission came only after much debate. But a German "defensive force" without a strong US/NATO guarantee will be a whole different animal. I think there is a distinct possibility that Germany too might now be weighing its nuclear options, as their own deterrent against a nuclear Russia.
I hate to be so pessimistic, but I can't help but see what Trump has done as a complete catastrophe for American influence around the world. Some might applaud this, considering the blunders and disasters visited upon Guatemala, Vietnam, Iraq. But we are now in a new world, one in which American guarantees aren't worth a Trump University diploma.
Can this damage be reversed by a future administration? I hope so, but I doubt it. Credibility is an easy commodity to lose, but difficult to regain. Never again will the United States have the credibility and influence it had under President Obama.
The American Century is over.
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