Trump Job Approval at 45%, Tying Personal Best

[oberliner]

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- President Donald Trump's job approval rating averaged 45% in Gallup polling last week, tying his personal high. His previous 45% rating occurred in the first week after he was inaugurated as president.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/235751/trump-job-approval-tying-personal-best.aspx

Disturbing.

[mcar]

1. I expect it will drop

He got a Summit bounce, but the news about the US kidnapping children should bring a quick dive.

[oberliner]

2. I hope you are right

[mcar]

3. Me too

[Hortensis]

19. Yes, plus conservatives are doubling down on

what they do best -- loyal support of their leader. Totally expected in view of the investigation and other attacks from "outside" on the leader they elected.

Part of this prospective kidnapped children drop is theory about response of Hispanic conservatives. Their approval numbers for Trump are high but enthusiasm low. They oppose undocumented immigration themselves but know perfectly well that those people are attacked by the White Man's Party as surrogates for themselves. And now the White Man's Party is persecuting Hispanic children. How will they react?

[lagomorph777]

32. Kidnapping babies is not a good look - this will damage him badly.

He's handed us the most amazing bumper-sticker issue for November.

"Republicans are kidnappers"
"___ supports kidnapping babies" (insert local candidate here)

[Tatiana]

4. Look around you. These are our co-workers. Neighbors.

Their propaganda is working.

Yes, this is disturbing.

We can't afford to let this go unpunished, like Cheney and other members of the Bush administration. A strong example needs to be set.

[lagomorph777]

33. Exactly - their behavior has become more egregious with each GOP administration.

Should have indicted Nixon, Reagan, Bush Sr, Bush Jr. - and of course Cheney.

[not fooled]

52. Yep

unfortunately. Propaganda, normalizing the disturbed behavior of an unfit mentally ill man and his looting, pillaging backers. Now I understand how democracies fail.

Hope things turn out differently here.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

5. Unfuggingbelievable.

He's doing the exact opposite of EVERYTHING and still succeeding in the polls.


We had President Obama in office without any major disasters or problems and he provided sane and stable leadership in the WH and Democrats passed the Affordable Health Care in 2010 and lost heavily in the following midterms.

[Kaleva]

8. Still succeeding? He's the bottom feeder in comaparison to other presidents.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

21. Succeeding in terms of polls

Not in terms of (positive) accomplishments

[Kaleva]

6. meaningless. Still far below the historical average for all presidents since 1945.

[former9thward]

10. Exactly the same as Obama at this point in the first term.

Last edited Mon Jun 18, 2018, 04:36 PM - Edit history (1)

Same poll, same time in June, 2010. Obama at 45%.


https://news.gallup.com/poll/116479/barack-obama-presidential-job-approval.aspx

[spooky3]

11. Not if you look across multiple polls.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

[former9thward]

41. Compare same polls, same methodolgy.

Yes you can find polls all over the place. Some polls have Trump at 49%.

[spooky3]

47. 538's approach is more statistically sound. Nt

[former9thward]

49. I am sure it is.

I am also sure 538 will be attacked if it shows Trump's numbers going up. And praised if they show his numbers going down. I am also sure that many people don't understand polls are weighted by population. Trump is deeply underwater in high population states like CA, NY and IL. It is simple algebra that since that is the case if he is at the mid 40s nationwide then he is over 50% in the states where he won his electoral votes. People are making the same mistake that was made in 2016.

[spooky3]

50. Thank you for that lesson. I find it interesting that you think this is helpful

On this discussion board and that moving the goalposts is a good way to resolve issues.

[mac56]

18. Here's the difference.

45% was low for Obama.

It's high for Dufus.

[former9thward]

40. Obama was at 40% many times in his eight years in this poll.

[mac56]

42. Not seeing your point.

[former9thward]

43. You said 45% was the low for Obama. It wasn't.

[mac56]

44. And?

Tell me if I'm wrong. Are you digging the fact that Dufus is matching some of Obama's approval ratings?

[former9thward]

48. I don't live or die with polls like many do.

I also don't attack polls I don't like and praise ones I do. I don't think polls are a media conspiracy as many do. They are what they are. Others may differ...

[Demsrule86]

75. I agree, but Gallop is not a good poll that his not picking and choosing ...that is a fact.

[John Fante]

22. Context is important here.

The economy in Year Two of Obama's presidency was BRUTAL - the U3 rate in the summer of 2010 hovered between 9.4-9.6%. Americans were worn out from 2+ years of recession/recovery and took it out in Obama.

In contrast, the economy inherited by Gump was a runuaway locomotive, and it continues full steam ahead to this day. With the U3 rate at 3.8%, even a glaringly bad president like GWB would be sitting on 55-60% approval ratings right now.

Gump's weighted polling average of 42% is absolutely pathetic all things considered.

[ProgRocknProgPol]

25. Yep. Even more pathetic will be Spanky's inevitable tweet about this personal best.

[John Fante]

37. Inevitable. This clown was taking credit for the economy BEFORE he was inaugurated. He's a joke.

Only in Trumplandia is 45% considered good. But it's not. At all.

The last time the economy was in this good a shape was 1999/2000, under Clinton. His polling average from that time period, despite the Monica Lewinsky scandal, was well north of 60%. Needless to say, this number takes a massive shit on Trump's head.

Trump was inaugurated on 3rd base, acts like he hit a home run, and is now desperately trying to steal 2nd base. He's a farce.

[Kaleva]

72. One can be like a Bible thumper and pick one verse and ignore the context

That 45% was a low for Obama in that year. The 45% for Trump is his high for this year.

Don' be like a Right Wing Bible thumper. Look at the context.

[Dawson Leery]

7. Yougov has him at 40% approve, 51% disapprove.

[NCTraveler]

9. The horse race is guaranteed without impeachment.

This can often be seen. From the media normalizing Trump to treating Sanders with kid gloves. It's what they do because it is in the best interests of their investors.

There will be no looking at the fundamentals of polls. There will be no looking at methodology. Don't believe your lying eyes. Just look at what they feed you.

[NewJeffCT]

12. Trump has really solidified his hold on Republicans

because of North Korea, RW judicial appointments, the tax scam and all the executive orders picked right off the Right Wing Wish List. Plus, he keeps pounding away at every bit of news out there to make it sound good - 1) unemployment is down, (true, but the decrease has slowed from the last few years of Obama); 2) Created a huge amount of jobs! (1.8 million jobs sounds like a lot, but it's really a break even number when compared to population growth, and is down from each of the last 5 years of Obama) 3) Stock market booming (yes, it's up, but not as much as the rest of the world's major stock markets, and not as much as Obama's first year) 4) wages are up!! (but, are down after taking rising inflation into account, and also down compared to the last years of Obama) - since Democrats rarely get on air to be able to rebut him, the constant repetition sinks in with viewers. (to me, it seems like we get a lot of Trumplicans vs Never Trump Republicans on air)

After the initial healthcare debacle where McCain voted it down, Trump was at around 80% with Republicans, but now is at 90%, or a bit higher than that even.

[oberliner]

15. He really has

It's amazing how nothing he says or does seem to move them off him at this point.

[Kingofalldems]

13. I know his internet pallies are really high on him.

[oberliner]

14. That's for sure

To say nothing of Fox & Friends, Hannity, and the rest of the RW media machine.

[Kingofalldems]

16. You better believe it!

[lpbk2713]

17. Diehard rethuglicants voting.

He would have to commit mass murder on live TV for it to change much lower than seven points.

[peggysue2]

20. His composite numbers are . . .

42.5% and that includes this Gallup poll. The tragedy at the border is not a winning nor sustainable issue; it will cost the Trumpsters and his GOP supporters dearly.

[JDC]

23. Dont believe it.

[ProgRocknProgPol]

24. I actually expected a higher Korean Summit Bounce

If these number hold up next week I might be worried, but this is actually less of a boost than I anticipated even with the underwhelming summit results. Glad to see that fewer Americans are duped than not, even if it's not much fewer.

[PubliusEnigma]

26. I'm detecting a solid trend in your posts.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

27. He's still a point behind where PBO was at this point in his tenure.

And we went on to lose 64 House seats.

[C_U_L8R]

28. How can anybody support a baby stealer?

Seriously.

[lagomorph777]

34. This can't be helpful to the GOP.

The bumper stickers write themselves:

"If you're not a baby-stealer, vote Democratic!"

[Awsi Dooger]

29. Smack in the middle of the 44-46% I predicted after the summit

I am very good at evaluating situational influence and not allowing my partisanship to cloud matters.

On one site after another the summit was viewed as a Trump triumph. The most simplistic types were championing it without reservation. And those are the ones who are going to change their mind in opinion polls.

Again, it's one of the reasons I have so little respect for Rachel Maddow. If all you do is watch her program with the predictably dismissive, "What was the point of that?" type of comment, then you'll expect Trump's approval rating to stagnate if not drop. She simply has no idea what she is doing in terms of variables and outcomes.

As I posted last week, at least the summit happened in June and not mid fall. Trump still has opportunity to implode. But most realistically his approval rating will remain in the 42-46 range leading to November, minus some type of economic slide.

[ProgRocknProgPol]

31. Do you expect these types to change their opinion of Spanky based on the child separation issue?

[lagomorph777]

35. How can they not? (Not counting pure deplorables) People don't identify with baby-stealers.

It's just too repugnant for anybody who's not bat-shit insanely evil.

[Freethinker65]

30. No way his numbers are up. Stable perhaps, not up

The stock market, farmers, and manufacturers are jittery because of stupid trade talk, getting rid of pre-existing conditions is not a winning issue, kids in cages in not a good photo-op.

The fact he did not start a nuclear war, for Trump, is a positive. Giving up military exercises for Kim is not a positive.

Blaming Democrats and/or deflecting to demonize Clinton for everything still works for him, but is getting tiring and the Democrats and even media are exposing his lies.

[lagomorph777]

36. Markets are beginning to jitter with the trade war heating up.

Bad shit will hit the fan throughout the summer.

[tenderfoot]

38. This must be such exciting news

if it were true

[oberliner]

45. What does that mean?

It is true; this is the result of the Gallup poll, and it's definitely anything but exciting.

It's extremely distressing.

[Poiuyt]

39. I do not take these polling trends lightly

We cannot expect a cakewalk during the 2018 and 2020 elections. It is imperative that we get everyone out to vote, including all Democrats, liberals, moderates, independents, minorities, and Hispanics. Trump is going to get solid republican support, but I can't see him getting too many votes from anyone in the middle or anyone with a heart. We must also ensure that there aren't any 3rd party candidates siphoning off Democratic votes.

[oberliner]

46. Well said

Nothing is going to be easy for us electorally, that's for sure.

[walkingman]

51. Rethuglicans have no shame.

[oberliner]

53. Amen

Majority oppose policy that causes family separation, but Republicans approve


https://www.cnn.com/2018/06/18/politics/immigration-trump-approval/index.html

[Thekaspervote]

54. Fivethirtyeight has him at 42.. just now

[oberliner]

58. Yes, they aggregate several different polls

The CNN one has him at 39 while this Gallup one has him at 45.

[mcar]

55. Ahem

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100210750967

[oberliner]

59. Yes, he's lower on the CNN poll

But higher on the Gallup one. 538 splits the difference and gives him 42.

[doc03]

56. CNN poll says 39%

[oberliner]

57. The CNN poll is 30 percent D's, 25 percent R's, and 45 percent I's

The Gallup poll is 30 percent D's, 30 percent R's, and 40 percent I's

[Kingofalldems]

60. Trying too hard.

[oberliner]

68. It's worth it to get more info

Never a bad thing to be as informed as possible.

[doc03]

61. So what does that mean? Does that make CNN wrong, neither one has 50/50. nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

63. There are more self identified Democrats than Republicans.

[oberliner]

69. Might explain the discrepancy

[DemocratSinceBirth]

62. Nate Silver gives CNN an A-, Gallup a B

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/


A- > B

[oberliner]

67. Yes, they concluded that his approval rating is at 42

By aggregating the various polls.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

70. 42

42<45

[oberliner]

71. That's the 528 figure

Gallup's figure is higher (45), CNN's is lower (39).

They are all too high as far as I am concerned.

He should be in Nixon/Bush territory by now (high 20s / low 30s).

[BannonsLiver]

64. So you're a pollster now.

[oberliner]

66. Just sharing the party id data

[Demsrule86]

65. It is a shit poll ...gallop.

[Demsrule86]

73. It is Gallop...CNN is below 40...why even post Gallup ?

[spanone]

74. Fuck him and those that prop him up.

beyond disturbing.

[still_one]

76. The ugly truth is that 40% of the country are racist, sexists, bigots, and all the excuses or

rationalizations does not change a thing