Trump approval rating ticks up to 47 percent

[struggle4progress]

BY BEN KAMISAR - 06/27/18 12:27 PM EDT

President Trump’s approval rating has ticked up to 47 percent in the new Harvard CAPS/Harris poll released exclusively to The Hill, a 2 point hike from last month.

Trump's approval rating was lifted in part by a 10 point climb among Hispanic voters. His approval rating rose by 6 points among Republicans and by 4 points among Democrats compared to last month’s poll. According to the same poll, Trump's approval rating reached its highest point last year, at 49 percent.

Trump's approval rating fell by 4 percentage points among independents, and 53 percent of those polled hold an unfavorable view of him ...

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/394384-poll-trump-approval-rating-ticks-up-to-47-percent

[leftynyc]

48. Both Harris and harvard

Get shitty ratings from five thirty eight. C plus with almost a 7 moe. Crap poll. He's down in Gallup and even rassmussen has him at only 45. Anything having to do with the hill is crap.

[lagomorph777]

2. The Hill is a Shill

for the GOP.

[struggle4progress]

3. NBC/Marist polls: Independents break away from Trump, GOP

... according to a trio of state polls released by NBC News and Marist College .. independent voters are breaking away from the president and the Republican Party.

In Arizona’s poll — which shows Democrat Kyrsten Sinema ahead of her possible GOP opponents by double digits – Sinema leads Republican Martha McSally by 17 points among independent voters, 49 percent to 32 percent.

In Ohio – where Democrat Sherrod Brown is up 13 points — the Democratic senator enjoys a whopping 21-point lead over Republican Jim Renacci among indies, 51 percent to 30 percent.

And in Florida — where Democrat Bill Nelson is ahead by just 4 points (which is within the poll’s margin of error – the Democrat’s lead over Republican Rick Scott among independents is 9 points, 50 percent to 41 percent ...

https://www.nbcnews.com/card/nbc-marist-polls-independents-break-away-trump-gop-n887091

[Demovictory9]

4. The Democratic edge remains fairly strong even in the face of Trump improving," Penn added.

[Union Label]

5. I could see him at 4% or maybe even 7%

but that 47% number is plain bullshit someone is cooking the numbers.

[Baitball Blogger]

16. We need someone to expose polling companies.

I just don't get it. Polling companies lead you to believe that they call random numbers, but that's bullshit. Everyone one of those numbers called has a profile. They have a good idea what kind of response they're going to get, so they can over poll Republican hardliners and get just this kind of result.

[struggle4progress]

6. You Can Smell Trump's Fear

By Eugene Robinson
June 27, 2018

WASHINGTON -- President Trump created an immigration crisis to stoke resentment and anger among his base -- traumatizing innocent children for political gain. Lacking any kind of moral compass, he makes a show of being pleased with what he has wrought. But you can smell his fear.

Trump is desperate to keep his Republican congressional majorities, not because of anything they might accomplish but because he has cowed them into being afraid to hold him accountable. If his base is not motivated to vote in November, the GOP loses the House -- and Trump and his entourage of grifters face a lineup of Democratic committee chairmen with the power to subpoena documents and compel testimony ...

It is foolish to underestimate the power of Trump's lies -- even the deranged claim that Democrats are somehow in league with a violent street gang. Like all successful demagogues, Trump has a talent for identifying scapegoats. It is not hyperbole to say that he speaks of Latino immigrants in much the same way that European monsters once spoke of Jews.

It is equally foolish, however, to look past a sign that all is not well in Trumpland and that the president is rattled: He backed down ...

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/06/27/you_can_smell_trumps_fear_137362.html

[Iliyah]

20. I think most of the GOPs are running scared.

That's why they "told" Kennedy to retire. The economy is starting to fail and what the shithole is doing with tariffs is hurting a lot of people and businesses. Corporations are not too happy nor the banks. Allies dislike the Shithole as well and do not trust him especially with this Putin meeting.

Kim, Jong Un has made t-rump look like a idiot (which is not hard to do)

I'm pretty he's got a shit load of enemies and they are lining up against him.

He needs to be fed by his nutty supporters and therefore is going on a sicko rally tours.

[Iliyah]

7. fake news

[Thekaspervote]

8. Fivethirtyeight at 41.9 right where it's pretty much been for the past 6 wks

[njhoneybadger]

17. Yup, 538 is the most reliable

[Yonnie3]

9. Latest YouGov has him at 37% 6/25-6/26 n/t

[D_Master81]

10. HAHAHAHAHA

His approval went up by 10 points among hispanics while splitting up hispanic families. Sounds legit.

[struggle4progress]

12. +

[rzemanfl]

15. + 2. n/t

[MadDAsHell]

21. I think there's a false assumption that all Hispanics equally relate on immigration.

But I’ve not found that to be true amongst my Hispanic colleagues. None are conservative, but all are naturalized citizens or in the process of becoming so, and none seem particularly sympathetic to their undocumented brethren. Not sure why but it’s just what I’ve seen.

[Hoyt]

27. Something like 28% of Hispanic voters voted for trump

[Grassy Knoll]

29. Now You Know That's A Crap Poll

[dalton99a]

34. +1. What a load of bullshit

[struggle4progress]

11. Deadweight Donald

By WILLIAM SALETAN

... President Trump’s approval numbers are soft. They’re not just low in comparison to other presidents at this stage. They also disguise misgivings among his approvers. Trump’s base is weaker than it looks. Second, he’s a drag on his party. He makes the Republican disadvantage on the congressional ballot much worse.

In a Suffolk University/USA Today poll taken from June 13 to 18, Trump’s approval rating among registered voters stands at 43 percent. His disapproval rating is 51 percent. His favorable rating is about the same: 40 percent favorable, 52 percent unfavorable. These are bad numbers for a recently elected president, particularly in a good economy. Even so, they mask the gravity of his party’s predicament.

On the poll’s congressional ballot question—“Which party’s candidate are you more likely to vote for in your congressional district?”—the GOP trails by just six points, 45 percent to 39 percent. But when the question is framed around Trump—“Do you want to elect a Congress that mostly cooperates with President Trump, or one that mostly stands up to President Trump?”—the gap more than triples. Fifty-five percent of voters choose a Congress that stands up to Trump. Only 34 percent choose a Congress that cooperates with Trump. A six-point deficit becomes a 21-point deficit.

In a YouGov/Economist survey conducted from June 17 to 19, Trump has an approval rating of 41 percent and a disapproval rating of 48 percent. That seven-point deficit mirrors the GOP’s deficit in the poll’s congressional ballot. If the election were held today, 44 percent of respondents say they’d vote Democratic, while 37 percent say they’d vote Republican ...

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/06/polls-show-donald-trump-is-an-albatross-on-his-party-heading-into-november.html

[msongs]

13. millions of latinos love trump. delusional those people nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. Why Harvard puts its name on a once defunct but resurrected pollster is beyond me.

[marylandblue]

18. What kind of Poll is CAP/Harris?

From the article:

"The Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll survey is an online sample drawn from the Harris Panel and weighted to reflect known demographics. As a representative online sample, it does not report a probability confidence interval."

My explanation: That is, there is no way to tell if it is even close.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. It is statistically impossible to get a true random sample with an online panel.

That being said an online poll can roughly approximate a random sample if done well. The Harvard poll fails in that respect. Nate gives them a C+ which is really shitty.

[OilemFirchen]

31. That's basically what the bolded phrase says.

But, to be more specific, if a poll "does not report a probability confidence interval" it's as statistically relevant as navel lint. And less interesting.

[SidDithers]

28. Online polls...

Sid

[Stallion]

19. Even Rasmussen Has Him Down 45%-54% (-9)

...and that's before it is adjusted down on 538 to 40%-54% (-14)

[rufus dog]

23. So the fucking idiots over at Disgustingness and Freeperville get to vote online

And claim to be hispanic!


p.s. Fuck you snowflakes lurking from disgustingville. You are a bunch of wimpy ammosexuals.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. They could just as easily lie to a pollster over the phone.

The poll sucks but for other reasons.

[UTUSN]

25. Is this Hasty Pudding?!1

[ProudLib72]

26. Hurray! Now the RW doesn't need to vote in November!

Best news ever!

[moondust]

30. RCP Average: 43.3 approve

51.5 disapprove

6/12 - 6/26

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

[JDC]

32. How can Hispanic voters be increasing support?

That sounds like insanity, self-loathing, or maybe sandbagging to through off pollsters.

[Goodheart]

35. I can't believe that his support among Hispanic voters has risen in the face of his treatment

of Hispanic people.

No way, no how.

[JDC]

36. I agree. No way

[Decoy of Fenris]

37. I work with a few Hispanic immigrants. They see border-hoppers as "Freeloaders".

The same applies to many other immigrants I know; Nepalese, Burmese, Vietnamese, Chinese, Korean, Indian, the Balkan states, pretty much anywhere. Their logic is "We jumped through hoops of fire to get here legally, you should too." I can't speak for -every- immigrant that works in a place as vast as our enterprise, but the general sentiment of those I know and interact with is near-universal support for Trump's anti-immigration policies.

It's disconcerting to say the least.

[pstokely]

38. are they young or old?

what industry is this?

[Decoy of Fenris]

39. Casino industry.

Young, old, and everything in between. A few Bosnians my age, a South African and Ethopian who couldn't be out of their 20s, a few middle-aged Cuban and Venezuelan, a Canadian, three Mexicans, one Frenchwoman, all manner of Asian from 18 to 98 (Old Frank -needs- to retire but he never will).

Honestly, the universality of the sentiment is stunning. Whether the person is conservative or liberal, Republican or Democrat, the condemnation of illegal immigrants seems to be a unifying force they all get behind. Black, white and every color in between, all united in support of the dumpsterfire that is Trump's administration in regards to immigration.

I guess that's why I felt obliged to even post in this thread; a 10% jump in Hispanic approval is quite believable if you work around people like my coworkers, even though I'm in the middle of a bluer-than-blue state.

[MadDAsHell]

40. This is my experience in the legal field as well.

I think this is one our party’s vulnerabilities. We tend to look at someone’s physical attributes and assume a political position, and that’s dangerous. Females are not automatically pro-choice; something like 40% are anti-choice.

Hispanics are not automatically pro-any-type-of-immigration; a great portion of them are vehemently against any type of immigration outside of the law.

[LeftInTX]

41. Identity politics have ruined many political races

I know many Hispanics who are super anti-abortion. They don't care about moms separated from their kids. In their minds those kids don't have it so bad and detention is better than Central America.

[octoberlib]

47. Are they aware that the Trump admin

views naturalized citizens who entered the country legally as just as bad as illegal immigrants and they’re trying to find reasons to go after them , too? Self -loathing is always disturbing.

[MFM008]

33. Sure

[JCanete]

42. wow, that sounds like total bullshit. A 10 point climb among hispanic voters?

[Cha]

43. WTF is this.. rump's approval rating was lifted in part by a 10 point climb among Hispanic voters.

What kind of Bullshit is that?

[octoberlib]

45. I thought the same thing, Cha!

[Cha]

46. So that means he's at 37%.. the Hispanics aren't

going to support the Fraud for caging their babies after he snatched them from their parents' arms.

octoberlib

[octoberlib]

44. Trump's approval rating was lifted in

part by a 10 point climb among Hispanic voters. Bullshit. This has got to be an outlier.