Keep one eye on the Atlantic

[malaise]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php
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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jul 4 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located within a few hundred
miles to the south of Bermuda are associated with a trough of low
pressure. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
before the end of the week while the system moves west-northwestward
and then northward between Bermuda and the east coast of the United
States. The system is then forecast to interact with a frontal
system on Sunday, which would limit any additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2. A small area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
producing a concentrated area of showers several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some additional
development of this system is possible during the next few days
while the low moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical
Atlantic Ocean. Upper-level winds are expected to become less
conducive for development by this weekend when the system approaches
the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Lochloosa]

1. TD2 is interesting.

[malaise]

2. Up to 30% now

Definitely paying attention

Note - not a TD - just an invest at this time

[Brother Buzz]

3. Keeping an eye on the Pacific - Hurricane Fabio Forecast to Weaken....

But Will Send High Surf to Southern California

[malaise]

4. Was reading that the Pacific will be theplacevto watch this season

We'll see

[Brother Buzz]

5. It's all connected, and we basically know squat

When El Niño conditions are present, it reduces Atlantic hurricane activity and increases it in the northeast Pacific, and it looks like El Niño conditions are building. I expect to see a couple more significant Pacific hurricanes before this season is over. Whether they hit land, or not, waits to be seen.

[malaise]

6. That invest approaching the Caribbean up to 60% now n/ t