"The Year of the Angry, White, Female College Graduate"
The fight for control of Congress is being fought in two very different Americas.
Of the 18 competitive and potentially competitive Senate races, those categorized in The Cook Political Report as Toss Up, Leaning, or Likely Democratic or Republican (so not Solid Democrat or Republican), just three are being fought in states that Hillary Clinton won in 2016. Most of the Senate battleground states are those with disproportionately rural and small-town populations, many in states that Donald Trump carried by massive margins.
Conversely, the battle for the House runs primarily through suburban districts of a distinctly middle- and upper-middle-class variety. Roughly half of all competitive Republican House seats are in districts won by Clinton; even many of the Southern contests are in districts with plenty of transplants or a distinctly non-Dixiecrat flavor. Cook Political Report House Editor David Wasserman has suggested that this might be the year of the “angry, white, female college graduate”—a demographic that may well be critical in the fight for the House but perhaps less relevant in the Senate outcome, which may be driven by the angry, noncollege white men who drove the last presidential election.
This lends a certain “Men are from Mars, women are from Venus” tone to our political dialogue this year. We could quite conceivably have an Election Night on Nov. 6 with Democrats gaining a House majority while just breaking even or losing seats in the Senate, with decidedly different messages from each.
https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/electoral-fight-between-two-very-different-americas
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