Question about tariff war

[queentonic]

Anyone on DU with an economic background care to give an estimate as to how long it will take before we feel the impact of the tariff war bigly? I'm guessing 2 to 3 months but that's just a guess.

[Sherman A1]

1. That is my guess but one company in Missouri

Is already doing so. I can’t do the link on the iPad right now but it’s a nail manufacturer that produces most of the nails in the County and is laying off workers and not sure it will survive.

[Recursion]

2. In broad strokes, a year or so

Different commodities have different fulfillment cycles. My company is in aviation and we already felt the hit on aluminum and steel, but materials aren't really where the cost is in avionics so it's more of an irritant than anything else. The big question will be how the food fulfillment network responds. China just turned around 20 tons of soybeans, if those get dumped onto the US market then soy farmers will feel that hit immediately; we'll mostly see that as cheaper beef in 2 years. Combine that with the loss of a lot of the migrant workforce, and you probably start seeing farmers either close up or sell out next year.

Cars are going to be another hot point. By tariff definitions, pretty much every car made in the US is legally "made in Mexico", so cars will get much more expensive with the 2019 models this fall.

[underpants]

3. Good points. I got a letter from Pepsi just last month - price increase effective July 1

We have a smal vending stand at work and we also stock our own drink machines. Monthly orders with Coke and Pepsi about 8-10 cases of each. Last month I got a letter from PepsiCo that prices would go up specifically due to changes in commodities and it stated tariffs as well. I just processed a bill for Coke and prices increased with them as well.

The ripple effect could be felt at gas stations and convenience stores. They don't make (and often lose) money on gas, it's the quick drink or snack where they make all their profits. Can they raise prices? Probably but that pulls money out of the system that normally is spent elsewhere.

[Recursion]

4. Exactly; great point

Probably but that pulls money out of the system that normally is spent elsewhere.


Exactly. It's not so much that tariffs cause huge macro-scale changes in purchasing patterns, it's just that everybody buys a little bit less of everything. Death by a thousand cuts.