the point of collapse (already) in 1787 and forced the creation of a whole new constitution establishing a dominant central government. So an extremely short period of greater states rights than since.
Today imo our nation would split along ideological lines for sure, but I'm pretty sure it'd be conservative regions insisting most strenuously on division. They want and accept progressive transfers of wealth from more liberal states, but they don't respect what creates that wealth and they don't want it.
Not all are dumb or hostile to reasonable degrees of liberalism, of course, but too many of them have always rejected the genuinely accountable government, social and relative economic equality, enlightened justice systems, and advanced arts and sciences that come with it. If those we know have ever worried about what government dominated by conservative authoritarians like themselves would result in, we certainly haven't seen any sign of it. They long to save America from liberalism.
As for the redistribution of wealth, that is intrinsically liberal progressivism on a massive scale, supported by recipient conservative states for obvious reasons, even though the money normally comes with big liberal/progressive conditions. So liberal regions believe in it and wouldn't split to put a stop to it. I believe they would split to preserve our liberal democracy for themselves if that was the only way to do it, though.
Living here in Georgia I've often speculated that, if the union were to split, the south would eventually degenerate into something like an advanced third world nation run by the typical authoritarian kleptocracy, once again producing refugees seeking better lives in the wealthy north and likely even military invasions and terrorist strikes. The more liberal nation(s) to the north or coasts would have to protect a new southern border or borders.
The more so because climate change means continued heat and sea rise, along with increasingly decreased fresh water supply. (Wars over water almost inevitable.) Very interestingly, hot or otherwise life-challenging climates tend to create more conservative cultures, as quick glances at political and economic maps of the U.S. and planet show. So I imagine splitting off as pretty much a self reinforcing disaster for the south and southwest.
For that reason, it won't happen. Not everyone down here is stupid, or trumpsterishly conservative.
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