Two Brexit ministers resign in blow to PM

[deminks]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2018/jul/09/david-davis-resigns-as-brexit-secretary-live-updates?CMP=twt_gu

Davis rejects "weak" Brexit plan in resignation letter

(snip)

Three of the five Brexit ministers have resigned: David Davis, Steve Baker and Suella Braverman.

It’s hard to say what all this means just yet, but Theresa May’s former policy chief says the chance of a no deal Brexit scenario “just got a lot more likely”.

[EndGOPPropaganda]

1. This is a big deal

[Algernon Moncrieff]

2. The Re-Vote movement just got a shot in the arm

This might also be the beginning of the end for May.

[OnDoutside]

4. I certainly hope so. I heard one commentator this morning who put Davis's resignation as an

admission of failure on his part. All the phoney "we can do this, we can do that", has been shown up to be a scam, and they will either run off a cliff or sign a deal that is effectively their current situation, but no MEPs, no Commissioners, and no PM defending their position with other EU heads. i.e. no power but pretty much all the obligations. If there was one champion of Remain to step forward and hammer that point home, we might get that new referendum. Unfortunately, Corbyn is a disaster.

[OnDoutside]

3. What Davis's resignation means...from David Henig

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1016242093583462401.html

Let's break the usual rules here and think about the EU might respond to the events of Friday to Monday in Brexitlandia...

1/ Policy wise the Chequers 'medium' Brexit doesn't work for the EU, it's not a Free Trade Agreement with Irish border backstop, it's not a close economic relationship with four freedoms etc. Arguably it only just acknowledges the choices

2/ But the EU doesn't want a chaotic or no-deal Brexit, as that makes all the Ireland efforts redundant. So one would assume that particularly with a new Secretary of State there's an opportunity for some intensive dialogue

3/ The key question from the EU will surely be - is this the first step of a process towards EEA, or as far as the PM is willing to go. If towards EEA, what's then the trust building mechanisms that allows this to be delivered. And yes these have to be at political level

4/ If this is as far as the PM is willing to go then the EU's presumed approach would be to focus on the Withdrawal Agreement, see if this can be completed, but prepare contingency like extension, no deal, and crisis Summit in the Autumn.

5/ The new SoS relation with Barnier will be crucial. Robbins can do the tech stuff, but the EU will want to know what is happening at the political level, what is deliverable and what is not. Problem will come if the new SoS is too partisan to be accurate on the politics

6/ As professional negotiators the EU will probably be worried that not everything can be done in time - either the backstop agreement or what makes it unnecessary. There's a lot of detail to work through. UK readiness will be seen in the white paper

7/ Conclusion. The identity of the new SoS is crucial to avoiding crisis in the coming months. They need to be able to build relationships, get detail, and provide the political dimension to talks quickly. And focus on the Commission not Member States

8/ end

and then, this

Link to tweet

I suspect Davis is looking across to what Johnson and Gove are doing, and 48 hours after being on board, is now jumping off, to position himself for a leadership push later. No one wants to be PM before they leave, but it might be necessary sooner rather than later. Ideally, there would a dozen Remain tories who might flex their muscles, and threaten to bring down the Government.

[OnDoutside]

5. Dominic Raab bio

1 new update
6m ago
11:09
Jennifer Rankin Jennifer Rankin
The departure of David Davis would not have a big impact on Brexit negotiations, EU sources said. But the EU will be worried that his resignation means Theresa May’s hard-won Chequers compromise could fall apart, because it suggests the UK’s internal negotiations are not finished.

Responding to the news, one senior EU diplomat said it meant “no big change” because Davis “wasn’t really present recently”, as Olly Robbins, the prime minister’s Europe advisor, had been doing the negotiations. The domestic implications for Theresa May are still unclear, the source said, adding “I hope she has a good plan”.

The former Brexit secretary had only attended four hours of talks since the start of the year, and at one point went three months without meeting the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier in Brussels.

But another source downplayed the resignation, saying diplomats were awaiting the full-version of the plan, in a Brexit white paper expected on Thursday. “It is important that the meeting in Chequers has taken place and the cabinet has defined its position.”

The European commission HQ.
The European commission HQ. Photograph: Olivier Hoslet/EPA
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8m ago
11:07
The Conservative Brexiter Andrew Bridgen told BBC Radio 5 Live that, if Theresa May did not change her Brexit policy, he would back a no confidence motion in her. He said:

I hope we are going to have a U turn by the prime minister today, otherwise she’s going to be in serious trouble ...

I have no confidence in that policy. If that is maintained by the prime minister as her policy, then I would have no confidence in the prime minister. I think there’s a large number of my colleagues will have that same view.

Asked if that meant 48 Tories (15% of the parliamentary party) would back a no confidence vote (the number who need to write to the chair of the Conservative 1922 committee asking for a no confidence vote for one to go ahead), Bridgen replied: “Very possibly”.

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14m ago
11:02
Julia Kollewe Julia Kollewe
On currency markets, the pound has shrugged off David Davis’ resignation following a brief dip. It has hit a three-week high, trading nearly 0.4% higher against the dollar at $1.3336, and has been steady against the euro.

Chris Scicluna at Daiwa Capital Markets said: “Sterling remains broadly stable this morning, and firmer than it was ahead of the Cabinet agreement last Friday.”

Joshua Mahony, market analyst at online trading firm IG, said:

Brexit concerns are back at the top of the agenda, following last week’s meeting at Chequers, culminating in yesterday’s resignation from David Davis. While markets should be worried by the added uncertainty of losing the Brexit secretary just eight months before the UK leaves the EU, there is a feeling that the UK is moving towards a business-friendly softer Brexit. The BCC has voiced its concerns over the impact of a potential rate rise, with companies clearly in limbo ahead of an uncertain Brexit. However, while companies and individuals may not too keen on a Bank of England rate rise, markets are clearly warming to the idea, with sterling-dollar rising to a three-week high, amid a wider dollar selloff.

Markets are currently pricing in an 80% chance of a BoE rate rise in less than a months’ time, yet with the UK GDP figure due out tomorrow morning, we could see some sterling volatility to come this week.

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21m ago
10:54
Raab's appointment - Snap analysis
Here are some snap thoughts on Dominic Raab’s appointment as Brexit secretary.

1 - Dominic Raab is a prominent Brexiter, and so Theresa May is continuing with the principle that has generally governed her emergency cabinet reshuffles of “like-for-like” replacement of remainers and leavers. (In that respect, the UK increasingly resembles one of those foreign states where posts in government are divided up amongst religious sects.) Raab played a leading role in the Vote Leave campaign. But he is generally seen as one of the more pragmatic and cerebral Brexiters, and not a hardline ideologue.

2 - The Raab appointment could be seen as a snub to Michael Gove. Gove would have been the obvious Brexiter to replace David Davis, and Gove might have been seen as someone who could win around some of the hardline, European Research Group Tories. But May sacked Gove from the cabinet when she became PM and, although she brought him back, she probably does not fully trust him. And she is wise not to; he has designs on her job.

3 - This move shows May is serious about about bringing new talent into the cabinet. Raab was disappointed not to get a cabinet job at the last reshuffle (some Conservative-supporting journalists had been briefed that he was a dead-cert for a cabinet job). At the end of last week Number 10 included Raab among a list of names of ministers who might replace anyone who chose to resign. The briefing was intended to tell cabinet Brexiters that they were expendable, and could be easily replaced. But it was also a means of encouraging junior ministers to stay loyal.

4 - This could be a sign that Theresa May is open to extending the Brexit transition. Number 10 has repeatedly ruled it out. But in Brussels it is widely assumed that the transition will have to be extended, and in an interview with Nick Robinson for his Political Thinking podcast at the end of last week, Raab accepted that implementing Brexit might have to take “more time”.

Link to tweet

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2018/jul/09/david-davis-resigns-as-brexit-secretary-live-updates?CMP=twt_gu

[Denzil_DC]

7. Some of the friction behind Davis's resignation was that he felt sidelined by May's cabinet office.

Not that he seemed to have any clue what he was doing anyway beyond making the occasional unhelpful statement, and he appeared singularly lazy and uninterested in details throughout.

A while back, he called for the sacking of May's close aide Olly Rollins, who's still going to be a significant force. It remains to be seen whether May will continue to relegate the Department for Brexit in a subsidiary role. There are already complaints from hardline Brexiteers that Raab shouldn't have accepted the job if he's not going to have much influence or any real power.

There's so little time left now for negotiations, let alone planning (of which the UK still doesn't seem to have done any), that Raab's time in office may just consist of navigating the chaos in an effort to come oout the other side relatively intact. It sounds like he's already trying to manage expectations downwards.

[OnDoutside]

8. Yes, I think it is clever of May to put Brexiteers forward, as they are caught between a lust for

higher office and wanting Brexit.

[Denzil_DC]

9. It's "clever" maybe at one level.

But for all the frothing and dire warnings of public anger from the Brexiteers, I'm absolutely incandescent at the way our country's (or indeed, countries' in your and my case) future's being held hostage to the petty internal squabbles and machinations of the Tories (don't get me started on Labour ...). ENOUGH already.

[OnDoutside]

10. The Brexiteers want to leave her in power until next March and then challenge her, but she is saying

right, you want to leave the EU, you lead the negotiations then.

[Denzil_DC]

11. It looks like Johnson's resignation's kicked the ball down the road a bit!

Link to tweet

Kate McCann
✔
@KateEMcCann

Senior Tory source says 48 letters (the magic number to trigger on confidence vote and possible leadership contest) feels "pretty certain" now. Question is, can May win a majority? If she can she'll be immune from another challenge for 12 months...

May held a formal briefing that included the opposition parties, and included reaching out to the SNP for support! This has reportedly infuriated a number of Tory MPs. I guess she's trying to get her ducks in a row if it comes to a vote of no confidence. I think even the prospect of Boris as PM wouldn't be enough to get the SNP to back her after the contempt she's shown to the Scottish Government over the last couple of years.

[OnDoutside]

12. The thought of a No Confidence motion right now, is delicious, but could it be done by the time

Parliament goes into recess on July 24th ? May might actually prefer it, to see Johnson and Davies have to support her or go to the country.

[Denzil_DC]

13. I think the vote itself could be held at very short notice,

if it even comes to that - she's meeting the 1922 Committee this evening (prearranged before this kerfuffle), and we'll see whether she has an appetite to tough it out against her Brexiteer backbenchers.

As you say, with the recess coming up, whatever happens, we're in for a very Silly Season indeed this summer. I don't know whether they can hold a general election during recess, but I'll need to check up on that.

Meanwhile, the Article 50 clock's still ticking ...

[OnDoutside]

14. I'd say she has the appetite alright (where else can she go ?), but it's up to the Brexiteers to

make the running. As an act of survival, she's done ok. She knows she won't be there in the medium term, but has essentially said, if you want it, come fight for it.

[Denzil_DC]

16. I don't know. She's an odd one.

She appeared fragile to the point of severe agoraphobia during the last general election - no unscripted debates, no meets and greets with the general public, just brief, safe, closed gatherings with a select handful of the party faithful in small tucked-away venues. Then there's her diabetes, which won't help, and she's showing signs of premature ageing in her body language and weird facial tics.

Then there are the stories of her dissolving in tears repeatedly when that election didn't go the way she hoped. For all the initial wannabe Ghost of Thatcher bluster at her early PMQs, she's never struck me as a particularly steely figure except when it comes to stamping on the rights of immigrants etc. And she has a political and personal tin ear, not least when it comes to the sensitivities of even one-time allies in her own party.

Where else should she go? Her hubby's a multi-millionaire. She'll have an excellent pension, and quite possibly a cosy seat in the Lords if she wants it. She has plenty of places she could go.

Who knows what motivates her? If it's the prospect of hubby and her cronies avoiding the tax clampdown the EU has planned beginning next year, well, there's not much more she can do to rush Brexit through now after her initial rash triggering of Article 50 - the transition period could grind on for years, and the UK'd still have to comply with that regime for the duration.

I can't see much benefit to her personally or career-wise in hanging on, and if it's out of concern for the well-being of the Tory Party, I don't think she's a unifying figure any more, if she ever was, and more than likely an electoral liability, especially after this weekend.

They'd need to find a different slogan rather than "Strong and Stable", that's for sure.

[OnDoutside]

20. But for people like her, PM is the only show in town, the Lords would be the scrapyard for her.

I think she will hang on as long as possible, and the two goons resigning today, I feel might work to her advantage.

[malaise]

6. Bye bye Theresa

You're next

[HipChick]

15. Serve her right...BFF'up to Don the Con..

how embrassing...

[T_i_B]

17. President Fart couldn't be visiting at a worse time

The Conservative government is in meltdown, and England play a world cup semi final the night before.

[HipChick]

18. England could not give two hoots about May..

Now the World Cup SF....fighting words..

[lagomorph777]

19. Putin's appointees being shoved aside?

How do we get some of that action?