https://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/05/upshot/exit-polls-why-they-so-often-mislead.html
The problems begin early on election evening, when the first waves of exit polls are invariably leaked and invariably show a surprising result somewhere. You’re best off ignoring these early returns, which are unweighted — meaning the demographic mix of the respondents is not adjusted to match any expectations for the composition of the electorate. The first waves also don’t even include all of the exit poll interviews.
The problems continue with the final waves, which analysts pore over in the days after the election and treat as a definitive account of the composition of the electorate. Some foolish journalists might write entire posts that assume that the black share of the electorate was 15 percent in Ohio. In reality, the exit polls just aren’t precise enough to justify making distinctions between an electorate that’s 15 percent black and, say, 13 percent black.
The imperfections of the exit polls are not hard to show. Here are two quick examples, based on official voter turnout statistics:
The exit polls showed that voters over age 65 were 18 percent of the electorate in Iowa in 2008, but 26 percent in 2012. The official state turnout statistics instead show that the share increased to 23.6 percent, from 21.9 percent, over the same span.
In North Carolina, the exit polls showed that the black share of the electorate dropped to 23 percent in 2008, from 26 percent in 2004, and held steady at 23 percent in 2012. The state turnout statistics say the share rose from 18.6 percent in 2004 to 22.3 percent in 2008, and then to 23.1 percent in 2012.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ten-reasons-why-you-should-ignore-exit/
1. Exit polls have a much larger intrinsic margin for error than regular polls. This is because of what are known as cluster sampling techniques. Exit polls are not conducted at all precincts, but only at some fraction thereof. Although these precincts are selected at random and are supposed to be reflective of their states as a whole, this introduces another opportunity for error to occur (say, for instance, that a particular precinct has been canvassed especially heavily by one of the campaigns). This makes the margins for error somewhere between 50-90% higher than they would be for comparable telephone surveys.
4. Exit polls challenge the definition of a random sample. Although the exit polls have theoretically established procedures to collect a random sample — essentially, having the interviewer approach every nth person who leaves the polling place — in practice this is hard to execute at a busy polling place, particularly when the pollster may be standing many yards away from the polling place itself because of electioneering laws.
https://www.thenation.com/article/reminder-exit-poll-conspiracy-theories-are-totally-baseless/
Some media outlets post preliminary data when the polls close—that’s the supposedly raw data that, according to the conspiracy-minded, reveal the fraud. But those data have already been merged with the results of those telephone interviews, and they have already been adjusted throughout the day (the interviewers send in their survey results in three waves). Unadjusted data are never released. (If you Google “exit polls adjusted New York,” you’ll get back dozens of posts claiming that the “unadjusted exit polls” varied significantly from the final results. All of those posts are dead wrong, as none of their authors have any idea what the unadjusted data looked like.)
The author of this "research" is clearly an idiot who has literally no idea what he's talking about. It's embarrassing which is why nobody in the Democratic party structure takes it seriously. The author may know statistics, but he's clearly got all the knowledge of politics that my cat does. Please do at least 30 seconds of research before posting nonsense like this.
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