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still_one

(92,130 posts)
Mon Jul 9, 2018, 09:26 AM Jul 2018

Looks like stock market is completely ignoring any of the Trade War Risks

The markets also ignored the risks from the risky loans and deregulation that permitted banks to engage in hedge fund trading with derivatives,

That permitted banks to engage in hedge fund trading with derivatives the risks poised by the deregulations that very almost resulted into another Great Depression

For the most part I see the same rationalizations and brush off.

During the Reagan era I remember them spewing the bullshit that deficiets do not matter, and the booming economy that will result from tax cuts make it a non-issue.

Now they are saying that the so-called tax cuts will protect us from any Trade War Risks

Different tune, same song





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still_one

(92,130 posts)
3. It could be, and with the high frequency trading, and other manipulations that occur I am sure that
Mon Jul 9, 2018, 09:34 AM
Jul 2018

factors in, but in general I believe this is just typical Wall Street BS to pad over the precarious situation we are in.

This tactic is not new. They did this in the runup to the Great Depression, and even after the 1929 crash they continued to push the "nothing to be concerned" theme, until they couldn't anymore


brooklynite

(94,500 posts)
2. What do you mean by "ignoring"?
Mon Jul 9, 2018, 09:31 AM
Jul 2018

The markets have been bouncing up and down like crazy over the past three months.

still_one

(92,130 posts)
5. The volatility has been there for some time now. That actually started when programmed trading
Mon Jul 9, 2018, 09:43 AM
Jul 2018

was initiated under Reagan, but has gotten far worse with the high frequency trading, dark pools, etc.

Market has been essentially neutral in my view, which to me indicates they are not particularly concerned about potential trade wars. In fact I think they are more concerned about rising interest rates, and listening to the majority of so-called financial analysts, I still seem them pushing the theme that this is just a negotiating tactic, "nothing to worry about"


That is my take


brooklynite

(94,500 posts)
8. Disagree
Mon Jul 9, 2018, 09:53 AM
Jul 2018

Look at the markets during the Obama Administration, and your see a more or less consistent gain; it's only this year that the major swings have been continual.

nycbos

(6,034 posts)
4. The market went down for awhile because of this.
Mon Jul 9, 2018, 09:41 AM
Jul 2018

You can't look at day to day performance because no one can market time.

still_one

(92,130 posts)
7. You are right, day to day activity usually means very little, but since trump has taken office the
Mon Jul 9, 2018, 09:46 AM
Jul 2018

market has essentially been neutral, which means to me they don't consider it a big risk.





FBaggins

(26,727 posts)
10. I can't see any reason to believe that they're ignoring those risks at all.
Mon Jul 9, 2018, 10:44 AM
Jul 2018

Expected Q2 GDP around 4% with insanely low unemployment yet tame inflation with ISM figures around 60? Even oil prices appear to be near a sweet spot where they aren't high enough to seriously dent the transportation sector nor household budgets, yet they're unexpectedly high enough for oil companies to actually churn out significant profits. One would expect a dramatically higher stock market... yet something has restrained the markets over the last six months. What reason is there to believe that risks from trade issues aren't a big part of that?

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