Democrats Are Gaining Ground in House Midterms
Enthusiasm, resources and an unpopular president are giving even long shots hope.
By Jonathan Bernstein July 12, 2018, 9:02 AM CDT
It’s becoming more likely that this fall’s elections will go very well for the Democrats. I haven’t looked for a while at how the House is shaping up, so here’s what we know now: The margin of error in any prediction about the House is large, and it’s certainly very possible that Republicans will retain a small majority there, but Democrats should be clearly favored to reach the 218 seats needed.
The indicators have looked good for them all year, from good results in special elections to their polling lead in generic ballot questions to seat-by-seat analyses. Looking at the Cook Political Report’s ratings, Democrats are now favored in 201 districts. If they can win all of those plus the two Democratic-held toss-up seats, they’ll only need to win 15 of the 22 Republican-held toss-ups to get to 218. And that’s ignoring another 26 “lean Republican” and 29 “likely Republican” districts.
A huge factor here has been the Democratic Party’s intensity. It’s produced a deep field of candidates, which means Democrats are well positioned to take advantage of either a late overall shift their way or Republican stumbles.
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-07-12/democrats-are-gaining-ground-in-house-midterm-elections
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