Seth Abramson on the Indictment -- REALLY interesting

[RandomAccess]

(THREAD) BREAKING NEWS: This thread is a *live reading* of the new Mueller indictments against 12 Russians connected to Russian intelligence (the GRU) for hacking into the DNC, DCCC, and Clinton campaign. I hope you'll follow along and share with any others who may be interested.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1017807929045635072.html

1/ The indictment names 12 names, some of which we may have come across before in the Russian investigation. All will now be researched by major media and independent digital journalists to see if they intersect with the Steele dossier or anyone connected to the Trump campaign.

2/ Count 1 is Conspiracy to Commit An Offense Against the US and lists the defendants and mentions *unindicted co-conspirators*, which of course leaves open the possibility that some of these were American—and connected to the Trump campaign—though the indictment does not say so.

3/ It says some of the unindicted co-conspirators are "known" to the grand jury and some are "unknown," so that suggests there are others who could be indicted or will be indicted for this conspiracy and, again, we do not know their nationalities yet.

4/ Trump will falsely say these indictments have nothing to do with him. Per usual, he's wrong—it's that we don't *know* if the grand jury has found those connections yet. They may well have. But we know his phrase "rigged witch hunt" is henceforth GRU propaganda—and he knows it.

5/ The fact that GRU began planning to release intel it netted from "monitoring" Democratic computers/employees in April 2016—at the conclusion of which month Trump publicly offered a "good deal" to Russia on sanctions at the Mayflower Hotel—means the effort started long before.

6/ The indictments confirm "DCLeaks" and "Guccifer 2.0" were GRU front operations, meaning top Trump aide Roger Stone was in communication with Russian intelligence (and praised them) during the presidential campaign. One wonders if Stone is one of the unindicted co-conspirators.

7/ The indictments confirm "Organization 1"—which is clearly WikiLeaks—acted as an agent of GRU, which means that Donald Trump Jr. was in contact with Russian agents (besides those at Trump Tower) during the presidential election and (like Stone) praised/encouraged their efforts.

8/ The indictments imply *both* the named conspirators *and* the unindicted co-conspirators "made false statements about [the] identities" of DCLeaks/Guccifer. Many will miss that if Stone/Don Jr. are found to have known these entities were GRU, they *are* the co-conspirators.

9/ Many of us—but yes, me quite loudly—have been saying that Trump Jr., Trump Sr., Stone, and others could be found to have "aided and abetted" the Russian conspiracy by deliberately "making false statements about the identities" of the criminals in public after they knew better.

10/ POTUS is actually in this respect in *more* danger than others—as his private briefings confirmed for him the Russians were involved in cyberattacking America as *late* as August 2016. Yet he continued misidentifying the attackers after that—which I've said could be criminal.

11/ The indictments lay out a command-and-control structure by which different GRU generals were in control of different facets of the attack on America—i.e., the attack was laid out, in all respects, as a military operation, which makes sense as it was a modern-warfare invasion.

12/ This detailed description of the command-and-control structure—establishing a military-style operation—will be critical in the coming months, as we learn that Trump campaign staff or even Trump himself were aware of this effort before, during or after the main Russian attack.

13/ I *cannot* stress this enough: every time Trump uses the phrase "rigged witch hunt" going forward he is knowingly misidentifying the perpetrators of a military-style cyber-invasion of America by Putin's Russia—in order to knowingly aid and abet Russian crimes against America.

14/ Moreover, there is evidence from Rosenstein that Trump was informed of these indictments *before today* and *nevertheless* used the phrase "rigged witch hunt" in an official presidential declaration to tens of millions of Americans (as the WH confirms his Twitter feed to be).

15/ It is fine for us to keep debating if Trump coordinated with Russia—by aiding and abetting by any of various means before, during or after the Russian attack on America—while in-campaign, but from this day on, any more "witch hunt" talk is OPEN AND PUBLIC AIDING AND ABETTING.

16/ The indictments underscore this fact by noting that part of the Russians' criminal conspiracy was "making false statements" about the identities of perpetrators. Aiding and Abetting statutes don't require Trump to know crimes were committed—only a "high likelihood" they were.

17/ Trump had in August '16—and has now—a "high likelihood" knowledge of who those who attacked America were/are, yet he has *continued* to attempt to taint the U.S. jury pool in public statements to tens of millions of people in an attempt to ensure these men don't meet justice.

18/ The indictments list many of the fake names these Russian military officers used in their spear-fishing efforts. This is a good place to note (again) that this many Russian military officers could never engage in a coordinated campaign of this sort without Putin's knowledge.

19/ What this means is Trump is about to meet with the mastermind of Russia's attack on us and has called that meeting "easy"—already offering up *concessions* to that mastermind without asking anything in return. He's also made preparations to have much of their talk be secret.

20/ Trump is having this secret chat with the mastermind of the Russian conspiracy against the U.S.—which conspiracy is now confirmed in public filings by DOJ—at a time when either he or agents of his or both may well be the unindicted co-conspirators in the Mueller indictments.

21/ If, in the opinion of Mueller's grand jury, any acts Trump and/or his agents have previously taken have aided or abetted the Russian conspiracy, the secrecy of the meeting coming up in Helsinki may well mark it as an "act in furtherance" of the conspiracy Trump is a party to.

22/ But this is speculation—we don't know, but will eventually learn, what role the grand jury thinks Trump and/or his associates did/didn't play in helping the Kremlin cover up this conspiracy or receive unilateral financial benefits (like an end to sanctions) in payment for it.

23/ The indictment makes clear the *latest* the attack started was March '16—right as it was clear Trump would be the nominee, and as new Trump hire and direct/indirect Putin agent Manafort began hiring the men (Page and Papadopoulos) who'd act as intermediaries with the Kremlin.

24/ No investigator would find it random that Trump's pro-Putin Campaign Manager started hiring Trump-Russia intermediaries right as the Kremlin was launching the cyberattack whose fruits it'd try to give to the Trump campaign as part of talks with those very same intermediaries.

25/ One of the spearphishing emails was sent to Clinton's campaign just 4 days after—in what looks like a planned encounter—Kremlin agent Joseph Mifusd met Trump agent George Papadopoulos in Italy as part of a campaign trip Trump had (based on what we know) sent Papadopoulos on.

26/ The day the Russians stole 50,000 emails from Clinton's Campaign Chairman was the day Trump announced George Papadopoulos as a member of his national security team. 10 days later Papadopoulos would—face to face with Trump at the TIHDC—tell Trump he was a Kremlin intermediary.

27/ So by the time Papadopoulos told Trump—in person—that he'd been cleared to negotiate Trump-Russia meetings by a Kremlin agent (Mifsud), the Russians already had the emails that Mifsud would discuss with Papadopoulos just a few days later. All these events are aligned in time.

28/ But understand this, too: per the indictments, the Russians began the main thrust of their attack *within two weeks* of pro-Putin foreign agent Paul Manafort coming aboard the campaign of Donald Trump. Criminal investigators *do not believe* in time-coincidences of this sort.

29/ Timeline: Manafort hired; Papadopoulos hired; Russian attack starts; Russia gets Clinton dirt; Russia opens negotiations via Papadopoulos (Papadopoulos tells Trump this); Trump offers Russia a "good deal" on sanctions at the Mayflower (with Kislyak in the front row as a VIP).

30/ The indictment says the second major Russian attack on Clinton occurred less than a week after Papadopoulos told Trump he was acting as a Russian intermediary and—per accounts of those at the meeting—Trump was engaged and interested. It appears that after the second attack...
31/ ...Trump made Papadopoulos part of the editing team of his Mayflower speec
h, at which he said he'd be good to Russia if Russia was good to "us" and offered Russia a "good deal" on sanctions. He had Richard Burt—an anti-sanctions Russian-pipeline advocate—co-write the speech.

32/ What I'm saying is that the timeline laid out in the indictments strongly suggests at least some of the unindicted co-conspirators are American.

33/ Now here comes a bombshell.

34/ The Kremlin DIRECTLY RESPONDED to Trump's public call to try to get Clinton's "missing" emails WITHIN HOURS of him making the request—WITHIN HOURS. Either Trump was coordinating OR he KNEW he had sufficient pull with the Russians that his words could have this sort of effect.

35/ How would Trump know he had this pull with the Kremlin? Because by this time EIGHT OR MORE of his top aides had had DIRECT contact with the Russians, during which contacts it was made CLEAR how much Russia wanted to help Trump's campaign. He knew what he was doing on July 27.

36/ But here's what really matters here: Mueller is firing across Trump's bow. He knows, we know, the *world* knows what Trump did on July 27—so to use the phrase "after hours" and "for the first time" would *seem* to be Mueller beginning to draw a direct Trump-Russia connection.

37/ And Mueller *also* notes that a *second* new, massive attack on Clinton *directly* followed Trump asking Russia for help. This is astounding news—and the major media better pick up on it immediately, because you can be certain Trump's criminal defense team will. And Congress.

38/ (IMPORTANT) Rosenstein said Trump *knew before today* that this was coming. What are the chances Trump's *stooges in Congress* also knew this was coming—and that the way they conducted themselves with Strzok yesterday was an attempt to blunt the blow from today's indictments?

39/ I'm not going to run through every aspect of the Russian op—this "talking indictment" offers a large number of details, which indictments do not always—except to say that the *earliest* recorded attack appears to have been on the very *day* that Papadopoulos met Mifsud. Wow.

40/ I have been saying for a year now that the two key events in the 2016 Trump-Russia story are the March 31, 2016 "TIHDC meeting" of Trump's NatSec team and the Mayflower Hotel speech on April 27, 2016. It now appears the BULK of the Russian op happened between those two dates.

41/ Per the indictments the four major Russian pushes were these:

1. Right after Manafort's hire;
2. Between the TIHDC/Mayflower events;
3. Right around the June Trump Tower meeting;
4. Right after Trump publicly begs Russia for assistance.

The time-coincidences are astounding.
42/ *Please* remember what happened on March 31, 2016: Papadopoulos told Trump he was a Kremlin intermediary and Trump was *OK with it*. The 21 days after that contain the *bulk* of Russia's attack on the United States to assist Trump in winning the presidency. Not a coincidence.

43/ Many won't recognize April 19, 2016 as key beyond what we just learned—that's when the Kremlin created "DC Leaks." If I'm not mistaken, it's also the day that Paul Manafort took over the Trump campaign officially from Corey Lewandowski. These days are lining up in scary ways.

The original thread

Link to tweet

[Crutchez_CuiBono]

1. That's a hell of a post!!

Each paragraph could be an msnbc/cnn/pbs/ etc tv host topic. Wow.

[lagomorph777]

17. It sure is. It provides all the data needed for a graphical timeline. I need to get on that....

[emulatorloo]

2. Kick and Rec, great analysis by abramson as usual

[Tatiana]

3. Excellent summary of events. Manafort is in jail because his hire set this in motion.

He has the goods.

And this only makes me more certain that Trump is going to be the first U.S. President to be indicted in office.

[triron]

9. Will Manafort flip before his trial?

[Tatiana]

10. No. I don't think he will ever flip, honestly.

But I do take comfort in the fact that the raids clearly yielded important documentary evidence.

[lagomorph777]

18. His stuff will help the case, including the case against Manafort himself.

So even if he's too foolish to cooperate, the facts will emerge.

[mopinko]

41. gates has flipped. that is good enough.

maybe manafort hasnt flipped because mueller doesnt need him, and wont offer his much.
plus gates was there through the transition.

[Pepsidog]

4. Very interesting and important break down of the treason timeline

[dalton99a]

5. Kick

[smirkymonkey]

6. K&R

[Achilleaze]

7. republicans have surrendered America to the freaking Evil Empire* of russia

* per ronald freaking reagan

[Maraya1969]

47. Seth says that every time #45 calls the investigation a "Witch hunt" he is "Publicly Aiding and

Abetting" the Russians. That means that any TeeVee talking head or rethug congress person that does the same thing will be guilty of the same thing.....I am assuming.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

, "during or after the Russian attack on America—while in-campaign, but from this day on, any more "witch hunt" talk is OPEN AND PUBLIC AIDING AND ABETTING

[triron]

8. Item 10 is quite intriguing. Trump was already getting briefed before the election.

[chowder66]

15. This has been reported, fwiw. Here's an article from Oct. 2016

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/trump-was-told-russia-was-blame-hacks-long-debate-n663686

[yonder]

11. Interesting analysis, and for me good news

with the renewed hope that the Mueller team is getting their arms around the scope of this thing. With a couple more course adjustments, perhaps Mueller's efforts are entering a final leg.

Items 29-39 and 41 are particularly interesting.

[NewJeffCT]

12. Great summation of all the collusion info out there

thanks again to Seth Abramson

[zentrum]

13. Yet, Trump is meeting

….with Putin, the Uber-KGB-fox, in private. And the Republicans are not screaming to the rafters about this.

Are the Democrats?


What more could have the appearance of traitorousness at this point than this?

[lagomorph777]

19. Photos of Putin handing Trump a sack of Roubles?

Maybe that would be worse? But this indictment has to be causing the bags under those pink eyeholes to darken.

[uponit7771]

14. K&R

[NBachers]

16. Holy . . . Shit . . . the whole trump conspiracy is being slammed by an enormous battering ram.

[BSdetect]

20. They'd have bayed for the death penalty had any Dem ever committed one act of treason never mind so

many.

[George II]

21. Good job. This is just the tip of the iceberg, and it messed up trump's tea with the Queen.

[Honeycombe8]

22. Right at the top, right off the bat, he's wrong, according to Rosenstein.

Rosenstein explicitly stated that none of the allegations in the indictments relate to any American citizens.

So American citizens will not be the "co-conspirators" alleged in the indictments.

If I understood Rosenstein's meaning correctly, and it's a pretty simple statement. ???

[RandomAccess]

24. No you're missing the nuance of the indictment

It did NOT say there wouldn't be any Americans charged. It simply said there wasn't anything about that in THIS indictment.

[Honeycombe8]

25. That is not what I said in my post. Rosenstein talked about THESE 12 INDICTMENTS only....

and that the ALLEGATIONS that form the basis of those indictments do not involve any American citizen.

That's what I said. That's what Rosenstein said.

I did NOT say, and Rosenstein did NOT say, anything about future indictments.

But as far as these 12 indictments...they don't involve any American citizens, is what he said.

I think people are hearing what they want to hear.

If you ask the question:

Were there allegations in the indictments that the Russians worked with other co-conspirators?

....ANSWER: Yes.

Could those co-conspirators be Trump or anyone on the Trump team?

....ANSWER: Nothing in the allegations for these indictments, whether regarding co-conspirators or anything else, relates to any American citizen.


One answer could be that Americans DID take that info and pass it along. That doesn't mean they were co-conspirators w/Russians, if they didn't know it was a Russian that was passing it on You see? Or maybe some who passed on the illegal material weren't Americans.

[triron]

26. I disagree with your last 'ANSWER'

In fact this indictment there are know and unknown conspirators. These may well be Americans (e.g. Roger Stone) and members of the Trump campaign, based on what we know. It does not name them or charge them YET.

[Honeycombe8]

28. Look, we can speculate all day. "Maybe" "Maybe not." I'm just pointing out what he said explicitly.

That's all I'm doing.

I don't understand why people don't get it. He was talking only about these 12 indictments. Nothing about the future. Nothing about other indictments. And he was explicit, so people wouldn't do what some are doing: trying to speculate that some of the allegations involve Americans. He was very clear. They do not.

He didn't discuss the future or any other indictments or allegations or evidence. Some people seem to think that references in the allegations for THESE 12 INDICTMENTS to other people may refer to American co-conspirators. Rosenstein specifically addressed that, and said those allegations do not. It couldn't be clearer, and that's why he said that.

His press conference did not pertain to anything else. No other activities or allegations or indictments. So yes, Americans may be involved. But not for THESE 12 indictments, going by what he said.

[triron]

36. I disagee with your interpretation. Because that is what it is.

I think some people "get it" and some don't, if you want to put it that way. Whatever.

[RandomAccess]

27. Whatever

All I know is that people smarter and more experienced than I agree with me.

[Honeycombe8]

29. You can watch Rosenstein's statement on Youtube.

He couldn't be clearer. He talked about speculation. And specifically said the "allegations" for these 12 indictments do not involve "American citizens." Period. He couldn't be clearer.

That does not mean Americans aren't involved in OTHER indictments or activities. His press conf was only about these 12 indictments.

The investigation isn't over. There may be other indictments.

[RandomAccess]

30. I watched it in real time, and I watched the

analysis and commentary afterward.

Will you please stop beating this dead horse with me? I THINK YOU ARE WRONG if I even understand your point, and I confess that the more I read from you the less clear it is.

But just drop it because you are NOT going to change my mind or convince me of anything.

[Honeycombe8]

31. I'm not giving an opinion. I'm just stating HIS statements. So I can't be wrong. Here is the video.

Here's the video. He either said it or not. Here are his statements.

At 16:00 he says that there is no allegation in this indictment that the Americans communicating w/the Russians knew they were Russians.

Then at 18:10..."there's no allegation in this indictment that any American citizen committed a crime."

(His press conference was not about the investigation in general, or future evidence. It was narrow and only about these 12 indictments and the allegations in them. He did not speak about what future evidence may reveal or anything else that may be coming down the pike.)

[RandomAccess]

33. OFFS

What about: leave me the hell alone do you not understand?

[Honeycombe8]

34. Leave me alone, please. I just reported a fact, and you got all upset...

and insisted that Rosenstein didn't say that. Makes no sense. It's a fact, whether he said something or not. I posted the video for you to see for yourself. Getting angry at someone for pointing out what he said makes no sense.

It's just a fact that he said those things. Getting angry doesn't change that. Don't shoot the messenger. I'm just reporting what I guess you & some others failed to catch in his statements. And didn't understand that his conference was narrow in scope. It was not about the investigation in genera. Just these 12 indictments.

Facts are facts. It's clear you don't want to know facts.

(And if you were also listening...I pointed out that there could be indictments of Americans..but not related to these 12 indictments, unless new evidence comes out.)

[RandomAccess]

35. Okay, that does it

[Honeycombe8]

39. You keep arguing with me about an objective fact. You've done 5 posts to me...

arguing with me every time. I am not arguing. I am merely reporting a fact of statements made by Rosenstein. There is nothing to argue about. He made those statements. Period.

It's like you're trying to argue with someone who reports that the world turns.

[Bluesaph]

44. He said none of the allegations in THESE indictments...

Big difference!

[Honeycombe8]

46. Yes. Exactly. That's what I said he said, and cited to the 2 places in the video he said that.

The press conf was narrow in scope...pertaining to these 12 indictments. So it has nothing to do with evidence not yet discovered or revealed, or future or past indictments.

People somehow are not believing he said that. When it's right there on the video. Twice. He was very clear about it, so no one would mistake these indictments being related to Americans.

Thanks.

[lindysalsagal]

23. Mueller was centering around the June Trump tower meeting right from the start. He already knew this

stuff, and was working ever since to collect the evidence of collusion.

It sure seems like this is hammer #1 dropping.

I hope Mueller has good body guards. The entire GOP too russian oligarch money, and will go down with him.

We'll have a brand new government. No wonder Ryan et all are retiring.

[icymist]

32. K & R

[Crutchez_CuiBono]

37. Thanks again for this.

Cram packed w info. Was thinking about it at work. Came home to read it again. Really well put together. Hopefully you are a journalist or author bc you have skills to pay the bills. Even if it was a collation.

[RandomAccess]

38. You're most welcome, but

the "writing" was all Seth Abramson. It was his tweets, "rolled up" by that online link. I just did the Herculean task of copying and pasting.

But I'm glad it was helpful to you.

[Crutchez_CuiBono]

40. Regardless.

Thanks. have a nice weekend. The "end" is in sight.

[triron]

42. kick for visibility

[Cha]

43. Mahalo nui loa, RA and Seth! I Liked

It!

[Sunlei]

45. indictments of 25 Russians to date- including operatives /w stolen IDs working IN USA,

Special Counsel Mueller's indictment of 25 Russians:

Earlier today the Justice Department indicted 12 Russian intelligence officers linked to Guccifer 2.0 and their role in hacking Clinton and the DNC.[11] The Russians had access to information on 500,000 voters.[12]


The Russians allegedly hacked America's election infrastructure, including state election boards and secretaries of state.

The allegations in Friday's indictment went well beyond merely hacking the Clinton campaign and Democratic campaign committees. From one state election board, the Russians managed to steal information on 500,000 voters, Rosenstein said, although he did not identify which state. Trump won the 2016 election by winning three key states by slim margins that added up to around 80,000 votes.

Earlier this year Special Counsel Mueller indicted 13 Russian nationals and 3 Russian entities for election interference.[13] The Russian election meddling operation was a sophisticated attack against the West. This operation was funded through Russian fronts, including a catering company run by a close friend of Putin, Yevgeny Prigozhin. They used stolen American identities.

Operatives bought political ads on social media sites. Operatives visited the United States, traveled across 9 states and discussed escape routes if they were caught inside the country. Operatives bought equipment including burner phones and SIM cards. The operation included hundreds of employees and millions of dollars, Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein put it best - the Russians conducted information warfare during the election.[14]


According to the indictment Prigozhin met Mikhail Bystrov, a leader of the Internet Research Agency (IRA), regularly in 2015 and 2016.[15] Prigozhin funded the Internet Research Agency and their meddling of the American election. This was a sophisticated operation that spanned over several years.[16] Prigozhin has been Putin's go to guy for under the table missions, including recruiting mercenaries for the conflicts in Ukraine and Syria.[17]

11) Justice Department indictment of 12 Russian Intelligence Officers

12) CNBC - 5 key takeaways from the latest indictment in Mueller's Russia probe

13) Justice Department - Indictment of 13 Russians and 3 entities

14) Politico - Mueller shifts focus back to Russian 'information warfare'

15) Washington Post - The rise of ‘Putin’s chef,’ the Russian oligarch accused of manipulating the U.S. election

16) The Guardian - Putin’s chef, a troll farm and Russia's plot to hijack US democracy

17) New York Times - Yevgeny Prigozhin, Russian Oligarch Indicted by U.S., Is Known as ‘Putin’s Cook’

Much Thanks to Poppin for comments & keeping track of the facts.