2018: Democrats lead GOP by 12 million registered voters, 40% D, 29% R, 28% I

[workinclasszero]

by Paul Bedard July 13, 2018 09:12 AM

Democrats hold a massive voter lead in states that require party registration, a gap of 12 million that could be key to whether the party takes control of the House and Senate in the fall midterm congressional elections, according to a new analysis.

Overall, 40 percent of voters in 31 party registration states are Democrats, 29 percent are Republicans, and 28 percent are independents, according to a new report of July numbers from the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. The states include several with key battles over House seats such as California, New York, Florida, and Pennsylvania.

The lead is significant, said Rhodes Cook’s analysis in Center Director Larry Sabato’s “Crystal Ball” newsletter, because in the past presidential election the majority party in 24 of the 31 states won, especially among Republican states.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/2018-democrats-lead-gop-by-12-million-registered-voters

[JaneQPublic]

1. Good news, but...

...Gerrymandering.

In past House elections, Dems won 50.59 percent of the votes but won only 46 percent of the seats.

That's because of the districts are drawn by GOPers, who worked to win state legislature seats after Dems abandoned the 50-state strategy.

Until it's fixed, we have to do much better just to squeak out a won.

http://www.politifact.com/texas/statements/2013/nov/26/lloyd-doggett/democrats-outpolled-republicans-who-landed-33-seat/

[Garrett78]

2. This demonstrates why we can win the popular vote but lose the electoral college and...

...why we're at a disadvantage in terms of achieving (and maintaining) a large majority in Congress.

Of those 12 million more registered Democrats, nearly 7 million live in just 2 states (CA and NY).

And then there's this sobering bit:

Of note, some of the states with registered Democrat advantages, like Louisiana, Kentucky, and West Virginia, have been functionally Republican at the presidential level for at least 15 years, said Kyle Kondik, the managing editor of the Crystal Ball.

That could be good news for the Republicans in the upcoming election, a sign that just being majority Democrat does not mean voters are in lock step, said the report which highlighted the growth of independent voters.

[Scurrilous]

3. K&R

[BumRushDaShow]

4. Only issue is the source link of the OP

which unfortunately is RW.

Here is a link to Sabato's Crystal ball where they were getting the info from -

Registering by Party: Where the Democrats and Republicans Are Ahead

Rhodes Cook, Senior Columnist July 12th, 2018

KEY POINT FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Altogether, there are 31 states (plus the District of Columbia) with party registration; in the others, such as Virginia, voters register without reference to party. In 19 states and the District, there are more registered Democrats than Republicans. In 12 states, there are more registered Republicans than Democrats. In aggregate, 40% of all voters in party registration states are Democrats, 29% are Republicans, and 28% are independents. Nationally, the Democratic advantage in the party registration states approaches 12 million.

Poring over party registration

This is not the best of times for the Democratic Party. No White House; no Senate; no House of Representatives; and a clear minority of governorships and state legislatures in their possession. Yet the Democrats approach this fall’s midterm elections with an advantage in one key aspect of the political process — their strength in states where voters register by party.

Altogether, there are 31 states (plus the District of Columbia) with party registration; in the others, such as Virginia, voters register without reference to party. Among the party registration states are some of the nation’s most populous: California, New York, Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Arizona, and Massachusetts.

The basic facts: In 19 states and the District, there are more registered Democrats than Republicans. In 12 states, there are more registered Republicans than Democrats. In aggregate, 40% of all voters in party registration states are Democrats, 29% are Republicans, and 28% are independents. Nationally, the Democratic advantage in the party registration states approaches 12 million.

<...>

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/registering-by-party-where-the-democrats-and-republicans-are-ahead/

A map from Sabato's site to illustrate what/where they are talking about -

Democrats no longer control the White House, the Senate, the House of Representatives, or for that matter most of the governorships or state legislatures. But they still maintain a toehold in the political process with their edge in the realm of voter registration. At least that is the case in the 31 states and the District of Columbia that register voters by political party. As of this month, 13 of these states (plus the District) boast a Democratic plurality in registered voters, compared to eight states where there is a Republican plurality. In the other 10 states, there are more registered independents than either Democrats or Republicans, with Democrats out-registering the Republicans in six of these states and the GOP with more voters than the Democrats in the other four. They are indicated in the chart as “I(d)” or “I(r).” Nationally, four out of every 10 registered voters in party registration states are Democrats, with slightly less than three out of every 10 registered as Republicans or independents. Overall, the current Democratic advantage over Republicans in the party registration states approaches 12 million.



http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/registering-by-party-where-the-democrats-and-republicans-are-ahead/

[beachbum bob]

5. Doesn't matter if we don't all vote, but still good to see