General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsThe top 20 House candidates to support in 2018...
I gave a talk last week to major donors in NYC about where to focus attention (particularly financial support) among the wide range of House candidates. I use a data-driven algorithm to determine which races have the most "bang for the buck". My approach is:
Focus on Competitive Districts
Toss-up, Lean R/D, Likely R/D ratings from:
o Cook Political Report
o University of Virginia Center for Politics (Larry Sabato)
o Inside Elections (Nathan Golzales)
Democratic competitiveness (Partisan Vote Index from Cook Political Report)
Districts won by Hillary Clinton in 2016
Red to Blue certification by DCCC
Financial status (FEC quarterly filings)
Focus on States with complementary up- and down-ticket races
Senate seats we need to hold: MO, ND, OH, WV, MN, IN, ME, FL
Potential Senate pickups: AZ, NV, TN, TX
Governorships: NM, FL, IL, ME, MI, OH, NH, AK, MN, CT
State House and State Legislative chambers: OH, NC, FL, WI, MI
Pay attention to Critical 2020 States
States we need to win in 2020: PA, OH, MI, FL, WI
States we might try to win in 2020: NC, GA, AZ, TX
My Top 20 races
CA-48 Harley Rouda
CA-39 Gil Cisneros
CA-49 Mike Levin
CO-06 Jason Crow
FL-26 Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
IA-01 Abby Finkenauer
Il-06 Sean Casten
Il-12 Brendan Kelly
ME-02 Jared Golden
MN-02 Angie Craig
NC-09 Dan McCready
NJ-07 Tom Malinowski
OH-01 Aftab Pureval
PA-01 Scott Wallace
PA-17 Conor Lamb
PA-07 Susan Wild
TX-07 Lizzie Fletcher
TX-23 Gina Ortiz-Jones
TX-32 Colin Allred
VA-10 Jennifer Wexton
indigoth
(134 posts)I would like to see this re-posted closer to election day
brooklynite
(93,873 posts)...I'll spend the next two weeks updating the FEC financials.
RandySF
(57,661 posts)We need Democrats operating the levers in 2020.
LeftInTX
(24,560 posts)RandySF
(57,661 posts)And a Dem Gov in Florida to appoint that one.
brooklynite
(93,873 posts)...but my database tracks the House, Senate, Governor, AG, SecState. State Treasurer and State Auditor races.
renegade000
(2,301 posts)I think Wexton is in a pretty good spot demographically and financially at this point, so might be worth spreading some of the cash around VA.
Bradshaw3
(7,455 posts)I give what I can on my retirement income but am working for our congressional candidate, which even the poorest able-bodied person can do. So no excuses, we all need to do what we can.