General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsComey tweet
Link to tweet
TEXT
James Comey
✔
@Comey
This was the day an American president stood on foreign soil next to a murderous lying thug and refused to back his own country. Patriots need to stand up and reject the behavior of this president.
5:06 PM - Jul 16, 2018
still_one
(92,115 posts)BumRushDaShow
(128,730 posts)still_one
(92,115 posts)BumRushDaShow
(128,730 posts)and I know the GOP is furiously working on talking points to keep their base in line.
Honeycombe8
(37,648 posts)EVERYONE, even Trump, was surprised. Because Hillary was leading in 13 out of 14 polls...her numbers hadn't moved much since the Comey surprise.
It was RIGGED by Russia. Although Hillary's numbers were hurt by Comey & by third party votes for Jill Stein. AND by those who DID NOT VOTE.
But it was mainly RUSSIA. The hacked election systems. Easy to do. Hack just a few swing districts. I SAID THIS ON ELECTION NIGHT.
still_one
(92,115 posts)days before the elections, against the advice of the Attorney General, Comey released the letter to the republicans in Congress, and they in turn reported it to our illustrious news media who characterized it as the email investigation had be reopened. That was a LIE. They then proceeded to paraded every right wing politician over the media outlets and Newspapers propagating that LIE.
In the next 3 days that Hillary's lead was completely erased.
This is well documented, and Nate Silver discussed it throughly.
Add that to those self-identified progressives who refused to vote for the Democratic nominee by voting third party, or not voting, and you have the disaster we have
Yes, Russia was no doubt involved, but it took much more than that. It was greatly helped by Comey, some self-identified progressives who refused to vote for the Democratic nominee, and 47% of populous who couldn't bother themselves to vote
That is
Honeycombe8
(37,648 posts)Last edited Mon Jul 16, 2018, 07:46 PM - Edit history (3)
They show that altho Hill's numbers had suffered from Comey AND Stein support, she was still ahead almost across the board.
If she had been hurt badly, or momentum was clearly against her, many would have known she might not win. NATE SILVER PROJECTED THAT SHE'D WIN, based on the polls and other data.
Well, I can't figure out how to post it. It's in a spreadsheet. Here's a cut and paste, though. Note that of the 11 polls where there is a prior poll, she lost a bit in 5 of them, and she stayed the same or increased her numbers in 5 of them, and for another (Clinton +2) there was no prior poll. This was after the 10/29 Comey surprise, AND the push for Jill Stein AND she didn't do that well in their last debate. Still, shortly before the election, Clinton was leading in almost all polls. (Altho it was w/in MOE, the odds her LOSING because of a MOE in all those states where she lost is pretty small. That has never happened before, since polling began. This was so striking that I wondered on forums whether Russia had interfered, because it made NO SENSE. And now we know that Russia did hack into election systems.
Last polls before the election: are followed by the prior poll by same pollster:
Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
11/8 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein IBD/TIPP Tracking Clinton 43, Trump 45, Johnson 8, Stein 2 Trump +2
****10/28 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein IBD/TIPP Tracking Clinton 44, Trump 41, Johnson 7, Stein 2 Clinton +3
11/8 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton IBD/TIPP Tracking Clinton 43, Trump 42 Clinton +1
****10/28 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton IBD/TIPP Tracking Clinton 45, Trump 42 Clinton +3
11/7 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein FOX News Clinton 48, Trump 44, Johnson 3, Stein 2 Clinton +4
****10/26 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein FOX News Clinton 44, Trump 41, Johnson 7, Stein 3 Clinton +3
11/7 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein ABC/Wash Post Tracking Clinton 47, Trump 43, Johnson 4, Stein 1 Clinton +4
****10/28 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein ABC/Wash Post Tracking Clinton 48, Trump 44, Johnson 4, Stein 1 Clinton +4
11/7 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Rasmussen Reports Clinton 45, Trump 43, Johnson 4, Stein 2 Clinton +2
****10/28 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Rasmussen Reports Clinton 45, Trump 45, Johnson 3, Stein 2 Tie
11/7 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton FOX News Clinton 48, Trump 44 Clinton +4
****10/26 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton FOX News Clinton 49, Trump 44 Clinton +5
11/7 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton ABC/Wash Post Tracking Clinton 49, Trump 46 Clinton +3
****10/28 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton ABC/Wash Post Tracking Clinton 50, Trump 45 Clinton +5
11/7 Florida: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Gravis Trump 45, Clinton 46, Johnson 4, Stein 0 Clinton +1
****10/27 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Gravis Clinton 46, Trump 45, Johnson 3, Stein 1 Clinton +1
11/5 Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Morning Call Clinton 44, Trump 40, Johnson 7, Stein 2 Clinton +4
****10/29 Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Morning Call Clinton 45, Trump 39, Johnson 8, Stein 2 Clinton +6
11/5 Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Gravis Clinton 47, Trump 45, Johnson 2, Stein 2 Clinton +2
****(no prior poll)
10/31 Michigan: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell Clinton 47, Trump 41, Johnson 6, Stein 2 Clinton +6
****10/28 Michigan: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell Clinton 48, Trump 42, Johnson 5, Stein 2 Clinton +6
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/#
Comey should not have done what he did. Who knows what he was thinking, or why he did it. But he did not cost her the election. He contributed to it, probably. But Jill Stein did her as much damage, and now we know that Russia DID hack election systems.
still_one
(92,115 posts)the campaigns internal polling which showed Michigan, Pennsylvania, etc switching away from Hillary, and the campaign switching our canvassing assignments because of those internal poll numbers, and that was a direct result of Comeys release and the republicans and media pushing the email lie
Also, 47% didnt even bother to vote
I also saved those outside polls, and the graphs are striking how the 4 to 5 point lead was completely erased, and I know the campaigns internal polling in those critical swing states that
This was more than just Russian hacking, and those self-identified progressives who refused to vote for the Democratic nominee by either voting third party, not voting, and undermining the Democratic nominee every step of the way and encouraged others to do the same
Honeycombe8
(37,648 posts)I understand why people want to blame him. But it's simply not true. Russia hacked the electin systems of a few key districts. That's all that was necessary, because it was so close.
Jill Stein did her as much damage as Comey did.
still_one
(92,115 posts)Russian hacking minimizes the blame that the others also bear the responsibility
Honeycombe8
(37,648 posts)Mainly Russia, obviously. There's nothing to compare with hacking an election system and voter registrations.
Comey did have an effect, as did Stein. But not much.
Clinton was STILL leading almost 100% across the board. Almost impossible for her to lose...without illegal activity. THAT'S why everyone in the world was surprised, even Trump.
Contrast with teh october surprise against Kerry. We still hoped he'd win. But it was obvious the damage that an October video did. Few were surprised that he lost.
still_one
(92,115 posts)to vote for the Democratic nominee absolves them of any responsibility, and that is simply false
As an aside it has not been determined at least publicly if the Russians were actually able to hack into the voting tabulation
What has been made public is there presence on social media, obtaining voter information
I blame all of them as responsible, but I doubt we will agree on this, so if you want the last word, go for it
mythology
(9,527 posts)Clinton's final poll average was about 3 or 4 points. She won the popular vote by 2 points. If you're going to snark about data being data, it helps to be right.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/polls.html
http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/campaign/315145-one-last-look-2016-polls-actually-got-a-lot-right
National polls only measure the popular vote. Clinton did, in fact, win the national popular vote by 2.1 points. The average of the 13 final national polls had Clinton ahead by 3.1 points, which was only a point off the actual result.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html
RCP Average 11/2 - 11/7 45.5 42.2 4.7 1.9 Clinton +3.3
Corvo Bianco
(1,148 posts)Bernardo de La Paz
(48,988 posts)Others too, like Jill "Moscow" Stein, and Susan "Surrender" Sarandon.
still_one
(92,115 posts)Tipperary
(6,930 posts)I wonder if he even feels guilt at all.
Honeycombe8
(37,648 posts)BumRushDaShow
(128,730 posts)Honeycombe8
(37,648 posts)And there's the S CT confirmation they desperately want.
We'll see.
Our main hopes are Mueller investigation AND voters.
BumRushDaShow
(128,730 posts)but they don't care.
Honeycombe8
(37,648 posts)BumRushDaShow
(128,730 posts)how Putin rears his head -
... but perhaps more accurately, it was Drumpf heading into Putin's rear.
tymorial
(3,433 posts)Cha
(297,039 posts)YOUR OWN BEHAVIOR BEFORE THE "ELECTION" WAS ON THE TRAITOROUS SIDE.
BumRushDaShow
(128,730 posts)We are here in this situation thanks to him.
Cha
(297,039 posts)the.. I'd say "trifecta" but it was the Russian Intelligent Service attacking with HACKS, stein LIES, Cambridge Analytica, the M$M and her "emails" (Andrea Mitchell), Voter Suppression and Purging.
And, Hillary still got millions more VOTES.
BumRushDaShow
(128,730 posts)with Cambridge and with Roger Stone. Stone thinks he was one of the ones being referenced in the indictments from last week.
Cha
(297,039 posts)BumRushDaShow
(128,730 posts)Cha
(297,039 posts)for you before I saw it.. NYDN is a World Class Treasure! Busted trump Wide Open in his home town.. I'm sure most of New Yorkers have Totally Disowned him. he's dead in the water.
charlyvi
(6,537 posts)I know mine is having a bumpy ride today.
Mahalo!
Cha
(297,039 posts)my first Doctor's appointment today with a new Dr in my town.. and my blood pressure was Good.
This actually helps me to let off STREAM!
charlyvi
BumRushDaShow
(128,730 posts)Cha
(297,039 posts)And, we do I noticed! lol
BRDS.. So appreciate we have kindred spirits here to VENT and Commiserate with
ecstatic
(32,677 posts)He has been an embarrassment from day 1, but his behavior has moved beyond emotional hurt to real damage now. Between the lost kids, caged kids, divided families, racism, and broken international relationships, he needs to step down NOW.
And ABSOLUTELY NO PARDON from the next guy/gal. Mueller's investigation should continue and when the time comes, he should charge everyone involved.
BumRushDaShow
(128,730 posts)that big business is attempting to blunt by keeping the stock market up while they take their cash from the corporate tax giveaway, and then churn back into the market in stock buybacks.
MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)BumRushDaShow
(128,730 posts)MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)BumRushDaShow
(128,730 posts)is still loyal to him and may start circling the wagons.
sprinkleeninow
(20,235 posts)boston bean
(36,220 posts)BumRushDaShow
(128,730 posts)Tatiana
(14,167 posts)His actions helped install this puppet of Putin. I hope he sleeps as miserable as the rest of us knowing the consequences of his awful decision making.
BumRushDaShow
(128,730 posts)(and sorry for the pun here) but it seemed they played "Russian Roulette" regarding what info to release at election time and we ALL lost. American LOST.
Hekate
(90,620 posts)Just sayin'
BumRushDaShow
(128,730 posts)He had a choice and he made it.
helpisontheway
(5,007 posts)BumRushDaShow
(128,730 posts)Link to tweet
TEXT
Jennifer Taub
✔
@jentaub
Recall. This convo was taped June 15, 2016. Trump was expected Republican nominee
Rep. Kevin McCarthy: Theres two people I think Putin pays: Rohrabacher and Trump. .Swear to God
Speaker Paul Ryan: No leaks. . This is how we know we're a real familyhttps://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/world/national-security/house-majority-leader-to-colleagues-in-2016-i-think-putin-pays-trump/2017/05/17/515f6f8a-3aff-11e7-8854-21f359183e8c_story.html
10:24 PM - Jul 14, 2018
calimary
(81,189 posts)BumRushDaShow
(128,730 posts)the sarcasm thingy because we know what that statement means!
calimary
(81,189 posts)I have no wish or intention to wish blessings upon his heart. At this point, I'm not convinced he even HAS a heart to bless.
BumRushDaShow
(128,730 posts)that it is a southern euphemism the conveys quite the opposite of what it says.
eleny
(46,166 posts)Mr. Ected
(9,670 posts)You ratfucked us all, you partisan traitor.