The Republican Party isn't shrinking.

[Garrett78]

I keep seeing posts about how the Republican base is shrinking but I've seen no evidence to support that claim. We'd all like it to be true, but believing doesn't make it so.

Someone posted a couple of articles that point to the Gallup survey as evidence for the claim, but the Gallup survey doesn't actually support the claim.

Now, if you go back to 2004, you do see a pretty substantial decline in party affiliation and a rise in the number of people claiming no affiliation (i.e, 'independents').

But there's been very little change in recent years: https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx. The most recent survey was taken in June.

In June of this year, 27% self-identify as Rep., 43% as independents and 29% as Dem.

In June of 2017, those numbers were 26, 42 and 30, respectively.

In June of 2016, it was 27, 41 and 30.

In June of 2015, it was 25, 41 and 31.

In June of 2014, it was 24, 46 and 28.

In June of 2013, it was 26, 41 and 31.

Anyway, you get the idea.

Lastly, I will once again remind everyone that the vast majority of so-called "independents" are actually very partisan. They just like calling themselves "independent" for one reason or another (wanting to sound reasonable, being too embarrassed to admit who they truly support, wanting to avoid political conversations, or whatever the reason may be). It's been all the rage lately to argue that Republican affiliation is undergoing a precipitous decline (and that that's why Trump's popularity within the Republican Party is so sky high), but I've seen no polling data that supports that. Wishing doesn't make it so.

[onecaliberal]

1. Their polling is stuck at 35% give or take 4%.

[Garrett78]

5. Who's polling? Where did you get the 35% figure from?

[onecaliberal]

7. Just about every polling agency.

[Garrett78]

10. So, just about every polling agency has different numbers than Gallup? Do you have any links?

And were you saying Republican affiliation is at 35%? Because that's way higher than Gallup shows it being.

[onecaliberal]

32. Google is your friend.

[Garrett78]

33. See post #24. I've Googled and the only party-affiliation chart I've seen is the one in the OP.

Maybe your Google-fu is better. If you find data that supports the claim that Republican affiliation is in rapid decline, please share.

What's funny is the articles that have been posted on DU, claiming that Republican affiliation is dwindling, have cited the Gallup survey results. But, as you can plainly see, the Gallup survey results don't support the claim.

[PubliusEnigma]

2. The Republican Party is dying.

[Garrett78]

31. The Republican Party is certainly rotten. But, alas, Trump's approval rating is holding steady.

Especially over the last several months: [link:http://|https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo]

[beachbum bob]

3. According to 2018 primaries, the GOP participation rate is way down, so

I will go with that as sign of times. All polling in past 6 months show a higher degree of enthusiasm by democrats than by republicans which backs up the decline in participating in primary voting. Again I will go with that.

[Garrett78]

4. There's a difference between enthusiasm (which fluctuates a lot) and party affiliation.

Claims that Republican affiliation is declining rapidly (or at all) are not supported by the facts. But it's obvious that enthusiasm is much higher among Democrats at the moment. We're pissed off.

[Phoenix61]

6. Do single data point comparisons is not

a good way to spot that type of a trend. If you average quarters starting in 2016 there is a slight downward trend. It will be interesting to see what happens over the next two quarters.

[Garrett78]

8. Link?

I'm more than open to evidence, but I'm yet to see anyone post evidence that supports the claim that Republican affiliation is in significant decline.

[Phoenix61]

9. I crunched the numbers from the poll

you posted.

[Garrett78]

12. The last 6 months look like this:

2018 Jun 1-13 27 43 29
2018 May 1-10 26 43 29
2018 Apr 2-11 24 45 29
2018 Mar 1-8 23 45 29
2018 Feb 1-10 28 42 27
2018 Jan 2-7 22 44 32
2017 Dec 4-11 25 46 27

With column 1 being Republicans, column 2 being independents and column 3 being Democrats.

I don't see a downward trend in Republican affiliation whether we look at the last 3 months, 4 months or 6 months.

And it's not just that people claim a slight downward trend. The claims I keep seeing are that Republican affiliation is dwindling, that there's a precipitous decline taking place. I'm open to evidence for that claim, but I'm yet to see any.

[Phoenix61]

16. Republicans by quarters

2016. 2017. 2018
Q1. 27.75. 28.3. 24.3
Q2. 28.76. 26.67. 25.6
Q3. 28. 27.3.
Q4. 27. 24.6

As I said, slightly downward trend.

[dembotoz]

11. Every couple months the demise of the gop is announced

And they don't seem to get the email cause they sure as fuck still control everything where I live

[Garrett78]

24. As I said, people wanting something to be true doesn't make it true.

Given how common the claim is (that Republican affiliation is in rapid decline), you would think people could post at least *some* evidence for that claim.

I've Googled and the only party affiliation chart I've seen is the one I posted in the OP. And it's the one that was cited in 2 different articles making the above claim, even though the Gallup survey results clearly don't support that claim.

[Me.]

13. It's Gallup!

[Garrett78]

14. I've not found a party affiliation chart from any other source. Have you? If so, please post.

Facts matter. If people have evidence for the claim, a claim I keep seeing over and over again, then I'd sure like to see it.

[Me.]

17. If I Was Looking THe Last Place I'd Go To Is Gallup

and yes, facts matter as do interpretations

[Garrett78]

23. Please provide evidence that contradicts Gallup.

I don't have any bias for or against Gallup. Gallup has been around a long, long time. But I'm certainly open to other sources.

Trump's approval rating among Republicans is incredibly high, and people say that's only because Republican affiliation is dwindling. The problem with that argument is that Trump's overall approval rating has been remarkably steady, which can't be explained away by arguing that Republican affiliation is shrinking.

[Me.]

25. You Might Try 538

but don't know they currently have the info you're seeking. And you & I may not agree on this....so there you have it

[Garrett78]

27. It isn't a matter of disagreeing. It's a matter of data.

Do you have any data whatsoever that supports the claim that Republican affiliation is in rapid decline? Any data at all?

538 doesn't have any party affiliation chart that I can see. They do show Trump's approval rating according to an aggregate of polls, and it's been holding pretty steady, especially over the last several months (and that wouldn't be the case if Republican affiliation was in rapid decline).

[Me.]

28. Then There Are Plenty Of Threads On The Front Page That Have Different Data

[Garrett78]

30. The front page of what? DU?

Please point me in the direction of this data. And just to be clear, I'm talking about data that demonstrates (over the course of at least several months) that Republican Party affiliation is in rapid decline (because that is the claim I'm addressing). You're telling me that there is, in fact, data to support that claim...so, please provide links.

[Me.]

34. You Know What...Enough

find your own links...EOM

[Garrett78]

35. So, as I said in the OP, there's no data to support the claim of a precipitous decline. Got it.

I'd love nothing more than to see such evidence, but wishing won't make it so.

[superpatriotman]

15. Independent or Undecided voters are far more dangerous than r's

They are wedge issue voters and, more likely than not, low-information voters.

At least I know where an r stands.

[Garrett78]

19. Undecided voters are swing voters. Independent voters are not. 2 totally different beasts.

The vast majority of so-called "independents" are highly partisan. They tend to be stronger in support of a particular party than the average party-affiliated voter was in prior decades. They just like calling themselves independent.

Genuine swing voters are small in number, and I would agree that many of them are low-information voters. Anybody on the fence about who to support in this current climate is both obnoxious and clueless.

[kentuck]

18. No...it's metastasizing .

[Garrett78]

21. It's holding remarkably steady.

According to the only party affiliation chart I've seen, which I posted in the OP. I'm yet to see any evidence to support the claim that Republican affiliation is rapidly declining.

[Greybnk48]

20. It's may not be shrinking, but it is rotting. n/t

[Garrett78]

22. That party has been rotten to the core ever since the Civil Rights Movement.

[dustyscamp]

36. I think their rotteness spans further back than this

http://historyoffeminism.com/anti-suffragette-postcards-posters-cartoons/

[Garrett78]

37. Yes. It's just that there was a pretty radical shift in party identification...

...that coincided with the Civil Rights Movement.

[Awsi Dooger]

26. Happy Adjusters

Making reality whatever they want it to be. I've posted your theme many times on various threads. You won't dissuade them.

We won't defeat the GOP based on their numbers shrinking or our GOTV somehow worth 2 extra points. That is another Happy Adjuster preposterous claim. We win if swing independents turn away from Trump after supporting him in 2016. So far there is evidence of that, but not nearly as decisive as mid to late 2017.

[Garrett78]

29. We agree on the first part.

But Democratic turnout can make a huge difference. Enthusiasm makes a big difference. Party affiliation can remain steady, but if one party's base is much more fired up, that can lead to a huge difference in turnout. Regardless of what swing voters do.