Pollster: GOP base is shrinking

[DonViejo]

Pollster Lee Miringoff said on Wednesday that Republicans are in danger ahead of November's midterm elections due to a shrinking base.

"In addition to [President] Trump's approval rating, it's the damaged brand right now, and that's the Republicans have to worry about," Miringoff, who is the director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, told Hill.TV's Joe Concha on "What America's Thinking."

"The base is shrinking because there are fewer Republicans. So the base is more solid than it was, but there's fewer of them," he said.

The University of Virginia Center for Politics detailed party registration last week, and found that there were nearly 12 million more registered Democrats than Republicans across 31 states and the District of Columbia.

The analysis also found that 40 percent of all voters in party registration states are Democrats, while only 29 percent are Republicans.

Gallup polling also shows more self-identifying Democrats than self-identifying Republicans in 2018, compared to earlier years when Republicans outnumbered Democrats.

Republicans are preparing to defend the House, Senate, and various state houses from what could be large Democratic turnout in November.

— Julia Manchester

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http://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/397695-pollster-gop-base-is-shrinking

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. We need to make the Russiapublican party so small you can flush it down the toilet.

[SamKnause]

7. Fucking A I'm on board with that.

If they all magically disappeared I would be very happy.

[peggysue2]

10. Or drown the incredible shrinking . . .

Republican Party in a bathtub!

Credit, of course, to Grover Norquist. So satisfying to throw the words back at them.

[gordianot]

2. Vote like your life depends on it, it literally does.

[dalton99a]

6. .

[Yonnie3]

3. Both parties bases appear to be shrinking.

Looking at The Hill's link http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/registering-by-party-where-the-democrats-and-republicans-are-ahead/ I see this graph, which seems to show that both party registrations have declined.

[Awsi Dooger]

4. Link does not support the headline

"Gallup polling also shows more self-identifying Democrats than self-identifying Republicans in 2018, compared to earlier years when Republicans outnumbered Democrats."

Meanwhile, take the scroll. There are only a handful of samples in which Republicans outnumbered Democrats, and they are scattered without apparent trigger.

Also, the five most recent Gallup samples all had fewer than 30% self-identified Democrats. It was 29% four times and 27% once. That is unprecedented in the Gallup polling, at least going back 14 years from the link. I scrolled the entirety. Almost never did Democrats register fewer than 30% more than twice consecutively, let alone five times.

It remains a very balanced country. But not among the young and first time registers, which is the reason that registration needs to become our top priority. If we shifted our GOTV funds heavily to finding new young registers, the party would benefit immensely in the long run. GOTV is necessary but continues to be overrated.

[Garrett78]

8. Yeah, the Gallup survey doesn't actually support the "shrinking" claim.

As I pointed out here: https://www.democraticunderground.com/100210892367

And I agree that we need to place a lot of emphasis on registering young adults. That's why it was heartening to read about the Parkland kids going on a summer voter registration tour.

[SamKnause]

5. When the remaining republicans can fit into a U-Haul box truck, maybe this country

will be safe and we can repair the damage they have caused.

If they all magically disappeared I would be very happy with that.

[Garrett78]

9. The 12 million more registered Dems highlights the problem we have with the electoral college.

Nearly 7 million of those 12 million reside in just 2 states (CA and NY). The electoral college and every state having the same number of US Senators enables tyranny of the minority.

And the Sabato piece contains a lot of caveats: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/

[PatSeg]

11. I kind of figured this was happening

As such, I take some polls with a grain of salt. When they say a high percentage of republicans support Trump or his policies, I take into consideration, that there probably are fewer voters who willing identify as republicans.