IA-03: Young Moves From Lean Republican to Toss Up
This Des Moines district has frustrated Democrats before, but it's exactly the kind of seat that will decide the House. Barack Obama won it by four points in 2012, but it voted for President Trump 48 percent to 45 percent in 2016. GOP Rep. David Young hasn't cracked 54 percent since winning the seat in 2014, and the former chief of staff to Sen. Chuck Grassley lacks a truly independent political brand. Last year, he voted for the AHCA and the GOP tax bill.
However, Democrats took a while to sort themselves out here this cycle. Digital design businesswoman Cindy Axne wasn't her party's front-runner in 2017, but caught a break this March when real estate businesswoman Theresa Greenfield dropped out of the race after discovering her staff forged ballot petitions. In June, Axne won the Democratic primary against two well-funded men with an impressive 58 percent of the vote.
Axne grew up on the south side of Des Moines, where her height served her well on the high school basketball team. She graduated from the University of Iowa, earned an MBA at Northwestern and worked for the Tribune Company in Chicago before moving back to Iowa to raise her family. She worked as a strategic planner for state agencies under Govs. Chet Culver and Terry Branstad, and successfully lobbied her local school district for full-day kindergarten.
After emerging from a turbulent primary process, Axne's campaign has developed into a serious threat to the incumbent. Between April and June, Axne outraised Young $657,000 to $538,000 (Young still had more cash on hand, $1.4 million to $465,000). She'll try to capitalize on Democratic enthusiasm in Des Moines and its suburbs while talking about spending time on her grandparents' Warren County farm to connect with rural voters.
For his part, Young won't be shy about his break from the Trump administration on tariffs (he calls steel and aluminum tariffs a "tax on Iowans"
, and he'll highlight Axne's refusal to say whether she'll back Nancy Pelosi for speaker. But he may not be able to escape the president's shadow, especially as soybean and corn prices tumble further. Axne and Democrats will use Young's votes for the healthcare and tax bills as evidence he's in lockstep with Republican leaders.
This week, Axne's campaign released an early July poll taken by ALG Research showing her leading Young, 45 percent to 41 percent. Republicans dispute that Axne is in the lead, but admit it's a very competitive race. Democratic businessman Fred Hubbell is also competitive against GOP Gov. Kim Reynolds and will likely need to carry the 3rd CD to win. He could help Axne. Young's race moves from Lean Republican to the Toss Up column.
https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/iowa-house/ia-03-young-moves-lean-republican-toss