I'd say the odds are pretty good that Cheeto Mousilini has told Manafort

[edhopper]

he is getting a pardon.

[dalton99a]

1. Manafort sure acts like it

[elleng]

3. He BELIEVES it?

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

7. He can't be forced to testify in his defense at the trials,

so he might think he's safer holding out for the possibility, however small, of an acquittal rather than the chance he might be whacked by the Russians if he voluntarily gives the prosecutors information about his financial dealings with them.

[edhopper]

14. There is that too.

[PatSeg]

21. Yeah

I think he is more afraid of Russia, than he is of Mueller.

[onecaliberal]

2. Yup

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

4. The problem with a pardon is that you have to admit guilt

and you no longer have Fifth Amendment protection - so Manafort could be forced to testify on pain of going to jail for contempt. He might also be prosecuted for state crimes (pardons are good only for federal crimes) - he probably did a lot of stuff in NY that they could nail him on.

[Takket]

12. This

Everyone keeps trotting out the "drumpf is going to pardon everyone" card.

Why do you think he hasn't done that already??? Because pardoning people actually makes things WORSE for drumpf, and he wouldn't pardon his own mother if he knew she could testify against him on a speeding ticket

[Proud Liberal Dem]

24. I think that with Trump

everybody has been conditioned (by Trump himself) to expect the worst.

[Jersey Devil]

22. There is no requirement to admit guilt for a pardon

Where is that coming from? A President can unilaterally grant anyone a pardon and the person pardoned need do nothing whatsoever in response.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

25. The Supreme Court said so.

In Burdick v. United States the court said acceptance of a pardon carries “a confession of” guilt. I should have stated this more accurately - the person doesn't have to formally confess, but by accepting the pardon he is effectively admitting his guilt.

[Jersey Devil]

30. That case is probably bad law that would be overruled

Where is there any requirement that a person "accept" a pardon? A pardon is a unilateral act by a President and takes effect immediately, effectively erasing any charge for which the person was pardoned for. He need not appear anywhere or do anything in response. I would argue that since it is a unilateral act, the person pardoned has no choice to accept or reject. Once granted the pardon is a fait accompli, requiring no further action whatsoever.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

33. It isn't bad law until the Supreme Court says it is.

And a person can turn down a pardon, although it has happened only once: During the presidency of Andrew Jackson, George Wilson, a postal clerk, robbed a federal train and killed a guard, and he was convicted and sentenced to death. Jackson granted Wilson a pardon due to his friends' influence, but Wilson refused it. The Supreme Court held in United States v. Wilson that a person is free to decline a pardon. In other words, a person must actually accept the pardon. "A pardon is a deed, to the validity of which delivery is essential, and delivery is not complete without acceptance. It may then be rejected by the person to whom it is tendered; and if it is rejected, we have discovered no power in this court to force it upon him." https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/32/150/

[Cosmocat]

26. Unfortunately, we live in a post reality world - Joe Arapio

got a pardon, whether there is/was anything in the process that he had to "admit guilt" he publicly stated that he did not admit his guilt, the right wing declared that he was not guilty, the feckless middle 1/3 really could not care at this point, and he was running for senate a year later ...

[asiliveandbreathe]

34. Arpaio's US Senate run is alive - I was at a red light yesterday and the political signs

are in abundance...I laughed and shook my head when I saw Arpaio's sign - pathetic..

Flakes seat....

Waiting for my ballot....D in full down ticket.......Primary 8/28/2018...looks like Kyrsten Sinema will win easily in D primary - R-Mcsally and ward and arpaio..looks like mcsally right now in primary win...

Sinema for the win..US Senate AZ - a pick up....best guess....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Arizona,_2018

[Cosmocat]

35. That would be sweet

[exboyfil]

27. How do you admit guilt for a preemptive pardon

Did Nixon accept his pardon and admit his guilt? Also you do not give up your 5th amendment right since, like you said, you are still in jeopardy in state court.

A flurry of pardons including a self-pardon is the likely outcome of all of this assuming it even gets to that point. That may very well be the last act of a lame duck Trump (either through being voted out or as the Senate gets ready to vote on impeachment).

It was wrong to go along with preemptive pardons. The Nixon pardon should have been challenged.



Now, Therefore, I, Gerald R. Ford, President of the United States, pursuant to the pardon power conferred upon me by Article II, Section 2, of the Constitution, have granted and by these presents do grant a full, free, and absolute pardon unto Richard Nixon for all offenses against the United States which he, Richard Nixon, has committed or may have committed or taken part in during the period from January 20, 1969 through August 9, 1974.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

32. The point is that the person who accepts a pardon is implicitly admitting guilt

even if they don't confess (or if they continue to claim innocence). That's the legal effect of accepting a pardon: I did it but my merciful government said I don't have to suffer the consequences. If a person is actually innocent there are other procedures that can be followed - there's a federal statute allowing for compensation to people who were unjustly convicted, and the DoJ has specific guidelines for pardons on "grounds of innocence or miscarriage of justice," but the applicant has to provide considerable evidence of innocence to be granted a pardon on those grounds. I agree that preemptive pardons shouldn't be possible but apparently they are.

Obviously if Manafort is likely to be prosecuted in state court he wouldn't waive his 5th Amendment rights, but if not, a federal pardon would make the 5th amendment unnecessary since he would no longer be in legal jeopardy if he were called to testify in another case.

[oberliner]

5. You can't give a federal pardon for a state crime

[sarcasmo]

6. A promised pardon is the only explanation for Manafort not making a deal.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

8. I don't think so - see above posts.

He hasn't been charged with state crimes yet, but he could be if necessary; and a presidential pardon is no good for state crimes. The other thing that comes to mind is that he can't be forced to testify at his trials, and he might be willing to take the chance and hope for an acquittal - but if he voluntarily pleads guilty and gives evidence to the prosecutor, might he be whacked by the Russians? I wouldn't put it past them at all.

[alwaysinasnit]

11. There is a possibility that he is more afraid of the Russian mafia. I believe he owes money to

Oleg Deripaska. Russians don't take kindly to real or perceived betrayals.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

13. That's my guess.

He's safer keeping his mouth shut and risking a trial. If he's acquitted he's safe from the Russians because he didn't talk; if he's convicted he's in prison but he's still safe because he didn't talk.

[inwiththenew]

31. That's what I'm thinking. Mueller won't have him or his family members killed

It looks from the outside like he is more afraid of the people he worked with than he is of Mueller.

[TeamPooka]

9. if Manafort ever accepts a pardon and admits guilt then he will have to testify if called because

there will be no 5th Amendment issue of self incrimination.
Manafort is not getting a pardon.

[Fullduplexxx]

10. When it gets real he will pardon everyone

[exboyfil]

28. Including himself

Let the courts sort it out. I think you are absolutely right. Why wouldn't he use every club in his bag? He doesn't care about a legacy. He lives for today.

I would not put it past him to do hundreds of pardons to sow as much confusion as he could. He might even run a pardons are us outlet kind of like the Marc Rich fiasco as he is leaving office. So what if his library is also a hotel - he was always into original thinking.

[Honeycombe8]

15. Yep. So that tells us that Manafort is the one w/the secrets. nt

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

16. On MSNBC just now, one of the talking heads, Paul Butler,

said that whether Manafort eventually goes to trial will depend on whether he's more afraid of Mueller or the Russians. If he's more afraid of the Russians he'll take the risk of a trial.

My suspicion exactly.

[blueinredohio]

17. No doubt in my mind.

[Bluesaph]

18. They can whack his family!

Helloooo! No brainer here!

He’s not gonna flip. EVER!

[JI7]

19. how about the State Crimes ?

it's very likely he will be charged in State Crimes if trump did Pardon him .

[edhopper]

20. one hopes

[shockey80]

23. Mueller may not have offered Manafort a deal.

His crimes are very severe and somebody needs to go on trial. Mueller can't let everyone off with deal. Manafort is a big fish.

[brooklynite]

29. And that assessment is based on......?