PA-17: Rothfus vs. Lamb Clash Moves From Toss Up to Lean Democratic
In February, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court set up an epic clash when its new map paired two incumbents in the Pittsburgh suburbs in the new 17th CD. But a Monmouth University poll shows newly elected Democratic Rep. Conor Lamb leading three-term GOP Rep. Keith Rothfus 51 percent to 39 percent. It corroborates data parties have seen privately, and we're moving our rating from Toss Up to Lean Democratic.
The new 17th CD is close to Lamb's dream district. It unites almost all of suburban Allegheny County, including his home and political base of Mt. Lebanon, with Beaver County, which has a strong blue-collar Democratic heritage.
On the whole, it's much less Republican and more Pittsburgh-centric than either incumbent's current seat. Both Lamb and Rothfus's current seats voted for President Trump by around 20 points. But the new 17th CD voted for Trump by just two points, 49 percent to 47 percent (its PVI is R+3, versus R+11 in both the current 12th and 18th CDs). It also sports a double-digit Democratic voter registration advantage.
Technically, Lamb currently represents just 20 percent of the new 17th CD compared to 56 percent for Rothfus, according to widely respected number-crunching by the liberal website Daily Kos Elections. And, whereas Lamb came to Congress by a razor-thin 755 votes in a March special election, Rothfus has won comfortably with more than 59 percent in his last two races. But Rothfus might not have much of an incumbency advantage.
Rothfus, a 56-year old former corporate attorney, hasn't had a competitive race since defeating Democratic Rep. Mark Critz in 2012 and has kept a low profile in the House. On the other hand, Lamb, 34, is a Marine veteran and prosecutor riding sky-high publicity from his recent ad spending and special election victory. What's more, Lamb will be able to able to attack Rothfus's votes for the GOP healthcare and tax bills, cast before the new lines came out.
https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/pennsylvania-house/pa-17-rothfus-vs-lamb-clash-moves-toss-lean-democratic
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Lamb will win this seat.
