***BREAKING NEWS POLL*** Democrats open twelve point lead over All Russia People's Front

[DemocratSinceBirth]

With almost 2-1 backing from women, Democrats take a 51 - 39 percent lead in hypothetical races for the U.S. House of Representatives this year, according to a Quinnipiac University National Poll released today.

Women back Democratic candidates 57 - 32 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University National Poll finds. Men are divided with 46 percent going Republican and 44 percent for Democrats. White voters are divided with 46 percent for Democrats and 45 percent for Republicans. Black voters go Democratic 78 - 16 percent and Hispanic voters back Democrats 66 - 23 percent.

The key block of independent voters backs Democratic candidates 50 - 33 percent.

American voters disapprove 66 - 27 percent of the job Republicans in Congress are doing and disapprove of Democrats in Congress 63 - 30 percent.


https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2558

[Me.]

1. +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

[stonecutter357]

2. K&R !

[BannonsLiver]

3. Your new name for the GOP makes me smile everytime I read it.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. Vlad started the party.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All-Russia_People%27s_Front

[BannonsLiver]

8. Ahh i thought you made it up. Still funny as hell though.

[SunSeeker]

9. LOL That makes the reference even funnier.

It really is Vlad's party now.

[lpbk2713]

4. The MSM will do what they can to help out the GOP.

They always do. The GOP would be history if the MSM
had not rescued them in the last years of the BFEE.

[Yavin4]

5. Actually, Dems are down 3%

You have to factor in Putin's patented secret election results sauce.

[Scurrilous]

6. K&R

[dalton99a]

10. Excellent. GOTV!

[peggysue2]

11. The dam has only just begun to leak and . . .

there's not enough thumbs in the world to hold the deluge back. The numbers are consistently going in our direction but the order should remain standing:

Work to get family, friends and neighbors to the polls as if we were 10 points behind. Because when we vote en masse, we win. And this election is the most consequential of our lifetimes.

Overall? Great news. But don't take anything for granted. Remember 2016.

[red dog 1]

14. + 1

The Repukes will try to steal another election, because that's what they do.

But, imo, they can only steal elections that are close...(Obama proved this in 2008 and 2012)

[ancianita]

23. OR they're going to try a vote for Medicare for all.

Watch.

[ProfessorGAC]

12. My 3 Most Encouraging Things Here. . .

. . .are white folks even up and men being so close to even Steven.

The other one is the independents favoring dems by that wide a margin.

[red dog 1]

13. K&R

Definitely good news!

However, the bad news from the article is:
"At this point, American voters are split down the middle on Judge Brett Kavanaugh. Trump's SCOTUS pick."

[ananda]

15. Kick!

..

[bucolic_frolic]

16. The key here is to make white Republican men

too angry to vote. Someone please figure it out, they're already 63/64ths there.

[oberliner]

17. National polls are meaningless

Polls need to be district/state specific to have any significance.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. Thank you for your input.

Please cite the authority who contends the generic ballot is meaningless so I can disabuse him or her of that notion.


Thank you in advance.


The generic ballot is highly correlated with a party's success at the ballot box.The greater the advantage in the generic ballot the greater the probability of a party's success at the ballot box.

[oberliner]

19. You're welcome

Just my opinion - no authority.

State-specific and district-specific polls are much more significant than national ones, don't you agree? And they also look good for us!

[Blue_true]

20. I agree with you.

We must win district by district and state by state.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. "Here's The Best Tool We Have For Understanding How The Midterms Are Shaping Up."

If you’re interested in how the 2018 midterm elections will go, you may want to keep an eye on the generic congressional ballot, one of the best tools for predicting how many U.S. House seats each party will win. The FiveThirtyEight generic ballot tracker, which we launched today, can help you do that. The generic ballot question, posed by pollsters for decades, is simple: It asks which party voters would support in a congressional election1; there’s usually no mention of specific candidate names — that’s what makes it “generic.”

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-the-best-tool-we-have-for-understanding-how-the-midterms-are-shaping-up/

[Bradshaw3]

30. Think I'll go with 538 on this one n/t

[Kingofalldems]

22. So why did you respond in the way you did?

You could have posted the Democrats are ahead in local AND national polls. But no.

[Awsi Dooger]

24. District polls are few in number and not reliable

Some of these red districts have not been in play recently. Some are newly drawn districts. There is no way to have an accurate model for districts like that.

State polls on House preference are exceptionally rare. They will ask about statewide races or candidate to candidate or Trump approval but virtually never on House numbers.

By far the best way to go is national generic polling with blending and interpretation based on the apparent margin. That is true this cycle and will be true in every forthcoming midterm.

We will see some district-specific polling very late in the process. But you can't depend on the same companies doing it every time, along with the issues I mentioned earlier.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. "By far the best way to go is national generic polling..."

"If you’re interested in how the 2018 midterm elections will go, you may want to keep an eye on the generic congressional ballot, one of the best tools for predicting how many U.S. House seats each party will win."

-Harry Enten
538

[Awsi Dooger]

27. It is seldom a contested opinion

I was surprised to see it here.

Presidential years contain more debate, regarding the value of national polling vs swing states. That will be interesting in 2020 because many state polls erred in 2016, and there are numerous theories toward the reason and the fix:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/31/upshot/a-2016-review-why-key-state-polls-were-wrong-about-trump.html

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. What is contested is how large the advantage has to be take back the House.

I have seen it as low as three and as high as eight.

[Awsi Dooger]

36. I prefer the higher range

Maybe 7

I like early relaxed estimates as opposed to late rationalization, which can contain more bias. Nate Silver used the number 7 as the break even point last November:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-fundamentals-favor-democrats-in-2018/

"Although these calculations can vary based on the incumbency advantage and other factors, my back-of-the-envelope math suggests that Democrats would only be about even-money to claim the House even if they won the popular vote for the House by 7 percentage points next year. The Republican ship is built to take on a lot of water,..."

[RhodeIslandOne]

31. And there's also not many of them at the House level

So there's that....

[Kath2]

26. That is good news.

Most women are backing Dems and women should be very energized for this election.

[beachbum bob]

29. Not looking good for GOP....but we will hear the democrats are in trouble

[emulatorloo]

37. Yes and our fellow DU'ers will post all kinds of "Dems in Disarray" hot takes from the pundits

[VOX]

32. Make it happen at the polls in November!

VOTE as if your life depended on it -- it just might!

[emulatorloo]

38. And knock doors and GOTV!

[VOX]

39. Yes! It's only 98 days until the election.

And it will go fast.

[oasis]

33. Rounding the turn into the stretch, heading for the wire with the lead.

Keep going, don't look back.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

34. I wish the election was tomorrow. I believe we would win the House and Senate.

[oasis]

35. Just "let Trump be Trump" for three more months and we will.

Traitor🇷🇺 Trump is a disaster on Twitter., Giuliani is a liability, while Mueller is steady as a rock.

[SunSeeker]

40. K & R