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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsCOOK POLITICAL moves GA-GOV from "SAFE R" to "LEAN R"...could go to "TOSS UP"
Yesterdays Republican run-off in Georgias gubernatorial contest is as good an example as there is as to why parties hate run-offs. They are risky propositions that can produce results that change the trajectory of a general election. Secretary of State Brian Kemps nomination has made the general election much more difficult for Republicans and moves the race to the Lean Republican column.
Kemp easily won the GOP run-off, defeating Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle, 69 percent to 31 percent. Cagle finished first in the May 22 primary with 39 percent, followed by Kemp with 26; three other candidates split the remaining 35 percent. Cagle started the nine-week run-off as a slight favorite. He had more resources and the support of much of the states GOP establishment. Even so, he was going to have to fight his way to 50 percent.
Kemps strengths in the run-off were that he is a down the line conservative. His ads featured guns (including a shotgun pointed at his daughters boyfriend), promises to blow up government (complete with an explosion), and a big truck that he promised to use to round up criminal illegals. At the end of one spot, Kemp referred to himself as a politically incorrect conservative. In ads attacking Cagle, Kemp accused him of failing to support President Trump, of incompetence in office and only pretending to be a conservative. It didnt help that taped conversations came to light in which Cagle was heard saying that race had come down to, who had the biggest gun, who had the biggest truck, and who could be the craziest. He was right, but it didnt endear him to run-off voters. The final and perhaps most effective arrow that Kemp had in his quiver was an endorsement from President Trump.
...snip...
Democrats contend that Georgia is a winnable state for them, pointing out that Trump took just 51 percent to 46 percent for Clinton. They believe that Abrams will perform better in a year that favors Democrats. Unlike past races, Democrats seem more interested in maximizing their base than they are trying to appeal to the middle. Republicans believe that the strategy is flawed, pointing out that more Republicans turned out in both the primary and the run-off than Democrats turned out in the primary. Both campaigns will ultimately have all the financial resources they need between their own fundraising, dedicated super PACs, and help from the RGA and the Democratic Governors Association. But, Abrams starts the general election in better shape financially. As of June 30, she had raised $6 million for the cycle and had $1.5 million in the bank. By contrast, Kemp has raised $5.1 million for the cycle and had a cash-on-hand total of $442,000 as of July 18.
Democrats are often very enthusiastic about opportunities in Georgia, only to be disappointed, but Abrams might put them closer than ever to kicking the proverbial football. Still, Republicans start the race with a bit of an advantage and thus is in the Lean Republican column. That said, there is great potential for the contest to land in Toss Up.
https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/governors/georgia-governor/kemp-victory-puts-contest-lean-republican-column
Ilsa
(61,695 posts)just like Donald. This last time, he cheated farmers out of actual funds he personally owed them. He cheated banks in vankruptcy. As SoS, he was reesponsible for the security of our election system. 600,000 Georgians'personal data was stolen during his tenure. He's a PoS.
C Moon
(12,213 posts)beachbum bob
(10,437 posts)A fuck you to trump....
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)Good job, all of you. With Trump's endorsement and factory-level dog whistle ads like this, we're especially pleased that your choice to try to stop Democrat Stacey Abrams is ol' Brian.
Brian Kemp would like to show you his guns, truck and chainsaw, the latter of which is ready to rip up some regulation
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/brian-kemp-ads-701456/
Go, Stacey!
DFW
(54,372 posts)If he changed his status for Georgia, it was due to solid statistical evidence
CottonBear
(21,596 posts)Ill be working to get Abrams elected. I think only massive turnout can overcome GA SoS, GA GOP & Russian attacks on our 100% electronic voting machine system.
DFW
(54,372 posts)Charlie Cook has a good hand on the pulse of things, but at the end of the day is only an observer, if a very astute one. He doesn't wave a magic wand to make things happen any more than the rest of us can.
kimbutgar
(21,137 posts)I dont trust those voting machines in Georgia. Stacey Abrams should demand paper ballots in this election and ask for his recusal.
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)blue-wave
(4,352 posts)Georgia and Texas should be blue states. Maybe I was a little ahead of the curve but I was hoping in my lifetime. Maybe, just maybe this time. VOTE! VOTE!! VOTE!!
Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)I prefer the mathematical foundation as a guideline. The nation in 2016 was 35% self-identified conservatives and 26% liberals. Contrast to Georgia, which reported 42-22 and Texas at 44-20.
Those are still many cycles away. We only win those states if the national slant is so severe that all the more friendly states have already joined.
Arizona is the more logical opportunity, at 41-27. Once a state reports 27% liberals then all systems are Go, if not for 2020 then 2024 or 2028. Just have to get the number of conservatives down to 37 or 38%. Arizona is an older state with 25% of voters aged 65 or above. Contrast to the national percentage of 16% in that category. That's partially why Arizona is so promising. I don't mean to be morbid about this but bottom line many of Trump's supporters in Arizona from 2016 won't be alive in 2020, or 2024. Granted, older people move to retire there.
Georgia and Texas are slightly younger than the national average in terms of voters aged 50 and up, which means persuasion is key and that's more difficult. We can't rely on shifting age of the population to provide several points in our direction.
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)The population of Georgia is 58% White, 30% Black, the rest other (about 5% Asian). A good Black candidate is running as a democrat, and she need to run a strong race.
The race basically comes down to what progressive Whites and Asians do with their votes. Also, how good democrats there are at registering new voters, my guess is republican voters are maxed out as it is, so any new voter upside should heavily favor the democrat.
7962
(11,841 posts)Her credit card debt WILL be an issue when it comes to the ad cycle.
But again, many Rs may sit it out thinking Kemp wins without their vote. As I mentioned in another OP, a guy I know said from the start he would NOT vote for Kemp simply because of those absolutely stupid pandering ads in the primary.
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)Kemp has been sued for failing to repay a $1.3 million dollar loan and he owes millions more. If he wants to make Abrams debt an issue, she should tell him to bring it on. Her credit card debt was to support treatment for an ill relative and she tried to help poor family. If she frames it right, her debt look charitable, as opposed to ripping people off like Kemp did.
hueymahl
(2,495 posts)All of that guns and conservative values is just an act. He actually reminds me a lot of W. But without the charisma.
Unfortunately, he will probably win. I'm going to do everything I can to help Abrams, though.
bucolic_frolic
(43,155 posts)they are too biased to allow the voters to decide
MRDAWG
(501 posts)there is no paper trail. Today's Atlanta newspaper has a report on Ga voting machines. A study commission is studying recommendations on the voting machines problem. KEMP HAS NOT COOPERATED WITH THE STUDY COMMISSION.
7962
(11,841 posts)I think that guy won anyway.
CottonBear
(21,596 posts)Crash2Parties
(6,017 posts)(copy and paste the URL please, it's getting parsed at the "at" symbol)
https://medium.com/@jennycohn1/georgia-6-and-the-voting-machine-vendors-87278fdb0cdf
GoCubsGo
(32,082 posts)They're smearing her as a "socialist," "too liberal for Georgia," and they're tying her to Hillary Clinton and Nancy Pelosi, but no male Democrats. No misogyny there. Nope. Nuh uh.
One can only hope that enough Dems get out the vote in order to counteract the tampering of the electronic voting machines that is certain to happen. They've done it before. They'll do it again.