KS-03: "Can you beat Kevin Yoder?"
The afternoon of Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez’s rally for Welder, one of his primary opponents in Kansas’ 3rd Congressional District, history teacher Tom Niermann, was knocking on doors. One voter, who was doing yard work, laid out his one qualification for a candidate: “Can you beat Kevin Yoder?”
It’s a paramount concern in this swing district, where President Donald Trump is reviled ― Democratic polling puts his approval rating at around 35 percent. Yoder is the Republican who represents this well-off congressional district, where 90 percent of the population has health insurance coverage and the median income is high enough to place in the top 20 percent of all congressional seats nationally. Yoder is considered vulnerable, and the DCCC made the district one of its first targets this cycle.
The original Democratic favorite in the district, businesswoman Andrea Ramsey, dropped out of the race in December after it was reported she had sexually harassed and fired a subordinate. Since then, a six-way field has emerged, with Niermann winning the backing of most local elected officials, Welder becoming the favorite of progressives and Sharice Davids picking up the backing of EMILY’s List with her standout résumé.
Of the three, Niermann is the clear moderate. He’s avoided taking divisive positions, such as supporting the abolishment of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (he instead supports “putting limits on ICE’s power”). And he won an endorsement from a moderate Republican, state Sen. Barbara Bollier, earlier in the week. He’s running a campaign focused on the backlash over former Gov. Sam Brownback’s (R) cuts to education and on support for gun control.
“For 26 years, I’ve taught everything from the American Revolution to the civil rights movement,” Niermann says in his first television ad. “I’ve never imagined I’d have to teach my kids how to react if someone busted through the door with an assault rifle.”
In an interview, Niermann raised concerns that Welder’s aggressive agenda could alienate the swing voters needed to win the district.
“I don’t think there is a desire to swing far left,” Niermann said. “I think there is a desire to remove the far right and to return to sensible government.”
Asked if he thought Welder’s embrace of Sanders was making his primary opponent unelectable, Niermann responded simply: “In a general election, yes.”
Welder, later Friday at the rally with Sanders, was clearly aware of questions about his general election viability. His volunteers passed out signs declaring “Win with Welder,” and he boasted of a poll showing him leading Yoder by 7 percentage points. But his strategy seemed off.
He noted thousands of voters in Kansas and millions of voters nationwide who backed Trump after supporting President Barack Obama four or eight years earlier.
“These are not the country club Republican types; these are working families,” he said to applause. “But the Democrats can win back these working-class Trump voters. We can unite the divides in our party and inspire infrequent voters and young people.”
There’s one problem: The 3rd District isn’t full of Obama-Trump voters. It’s full of their political opposite, voters who backed GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney in 2012 and then supported Democrat Hillary Clinton four years later. Romney had won the district by 10 percentage points, then Clinton won by a single point four years later.
Welder’s campaign didn’t respond to interview requests. His first television ad emphasizes his work for the Obama campaign, complete with a “Yes, we Kansas” slogan. He has endorsed Medicare for all, sworn off corporate donations and backed a $15 minimum wage.
Voters at the rally were receptive to Welder’s message ― even if not all were committed to backing him, and many had come across the border from Missouri.
A mother and son illustrated some of the divides.
“I’m looking for somebody to fix what Brownback destroyed,” said Liz Pfau, a customer service representative from Roeland Park, Kansas, describing Niermann’s pitch almost exactly. “It frightens me to death that I can go to a college campus and the person next to me could be holding an assault rifle.”
Her son, Ethan Stone, a rising college senior, seemed more likely to back Welder.
“I’m looking for someone who is as close to my ideology as possible,” he said, although he admitted, “I know some people are voting strategically for who can beat Yoder.”
What could have been a straightforward progressive vs. moderate matchup shifted when Davids entered the race in February. She’s the candidate whose résumé stands out the most: She’s a Native American lesbian raised by an Army veteran who is a single mom. She worked her way from community college to Cornell Law School to a White House fellowship while also mastering martial arts and competing in two professional MMA fights. EMILY’s List has promised to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars to back her candidacy. (Davids has far less cash in her campaign account than Welder or Niermann, according to Federal Election Commission records.)
Introducing herself to voters while knocking on doors in the suburb of Mission, Davids leaned heavily on that résumé, relating her life story to voters and handing out flyers that said she was “Changing the face of Kansas politics.”
“It does matter to me that there’s such a narrow range of experiences that have been represented in our government,” she said in an interview. “I can see how one different voice changes the conversation around policy.”
To her, the other options in the race blended together. “At that time, frankly, it was four white guys in the race,” she said of her decision to jump in. “I didn’t feel I saw anybody who could beat Yoder, or was speaking to something new and different.”
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/the-establishment-is-beating-back-the-progressive-revolution-bernie-sanders-and-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-want-to-turn-the-tide_us_5b53722fe4b0de86f48d95a3
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