Cook Political moves FL-15 to Leans Republican, TX-02 to Likely Republican

[RandySF]

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Dave Wasserman
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Rating change alert: two GOP open seats slightly less safe at @CookPolitical.

#FL15 OPEN (Ross) - Likely R to Lean R
#TX02 OPEN (Poe) - Solid R to Likely R
5:49 AM - 27 Jul 2018

[beachbum bob]

1. The direction of movement is all towards democrats and no reason to

Believes it's going to reverse.

[peekaloo]

2. Fl-15 is blood red.

A curious thing I've noticed is that all, and I mean all, signage for Republican candidates in this district have Conservative attached to their Reptilian stature. I've never seen this before, even in this area. They're all trying to out-Conservative each other. For that matter even statewide contenders are doing it.

Neil Combee is wanting to put his fat, worthless, self-entitled arse in this seat and we need a minor miracle to flip it. Even with redistricting into Eastern Hillsborough, Democrats have yet to make a dent in the past few years.

[RandySF]

3. Cook analysis (Behind paywall)

FL-15: OPEN (Ross) (R) - Central: Lakeland, Brandon, Plant City
Lean Republican. Four-term Rep. Dennis Ross's retirement announcement came within hours of Speaker Paul Ryan's, so this central Florida seat hasn't gotten as much attention as some others. But it includes some moderate Tampa Bay suburbs and voted for President Trump by just 53 percent to 43 percent (PVI R+6). And while Republicans are headed for a messy August 28 primary, Democrats may end up with an appealing nominee.

The GOP primary looks like a duel between state Rep. Ross Spano and former state Rep. Neil Combee, who just left his seat in 2017 to take a Trump administration appointment as the state director for the USDA Farm Service Agency. Spano is an attorney whose base is in Tampa's eastern suburbs, while Combee is a longtime former Polk County commissioner who raises beef cattle, watermelon, sod, seed and hay on his farm.

It's starting to get contentious: Spano declined to back Trump in October 2016, but an anonymous anti-Combee website recently appeared highlighting Combee's anti-Trump social media postings during the 2016 presidential primaries. Neither has more than $108,000 on hand and theoretically, there could be an opening for an outsider like construction executive Sean Harper. But Harper hasn't yet invested any personal money.

Meanwhile, EMILY's List-backed attorney Kristen Carlson is the Democratic front-runner after raising $249,000. Back in the 1980s, as general counsel to the Florida Department of Citrus, Carlson successfully lobbied the FDA to prosecute out-of-state "orange juice adulterators" who were passing off inferior juice as 100 percent OJ. She's a modest favorite over Navy veteran Andrew Learned, who was struggling to gain traction against Ross.

At a PVI of R+6, this district is well within the strike zone of plausible Democratic targets, and Carlson's experience with citrus could make her formidable in November, particularly if Republicans struggle to unite. The contest moves to the Lean Republican column.

[peekaloo]

4. Thanks.

Similar to the Republican pissing contest for Governor. I'm curious to see which one(s) show up to kiss Thump's ass on Tuesday.

Primaries can't get here soon enough.

I'd like to stay positive and dream a woman can not only take this seat but potentially the Governor's mansion as well.

[lpbk2713]

5. Not that it matters any ...

I draw a little consolation knowing my Lakeland precinct went with HRC.

[Gothmog]

6. My son lives in TX CD 2

He has given to the Democratic candidate-Todd Litton